Xzion wrote:Sirton wrote:CNN, GALLUP, USA TODAY.
Pretty intresting poll and something the Democrats can not just say look at newsweek...Gallup has been one of the premire polling agencys and CNN is involved aswell...Then you got Olympics coming up hogging the TV time and then the republican convention the aniversary of 9/11 which is normally a boost for Bush..Then the coverage now about terrorist plot found out about. I dont think you can be all smiles atm if supporting Kerry...my view is the race is still neck and neck, but Kerry is on the brink of faultering some overall.
I dont know much about past elections but are these polls ever fairly/compleatly accurate compared to election day?
One thing i take in consideration, at least from my perspective is...i know a ton of people who voted for Bush four years ago that are now voting for Kerry, i know noone who voted for gore last year who is now voting for Bush
Here is one for ya Xzion a good old Democrat supporting Bush.
St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly defiantly celebrated his 54th birthday on Monday by campaigning for President Bush's reelection while the fallout from his DFL ranks-busting endorsement began to pile up around him.
Leaders of St. Paul's Steamfitters Pipefitters Union, Local 455, which represents 1,250 members, withdrew its longtime support and insisted Kelly "is washed up in this town."
Former Police Chief Bill Finney, sounding in mid-campaign form for a 2005 mayoral challenge, wants everyone in heavily DFL St. Paul to know he's a Democrat and devout John Kerry supporter. Finney said a final decision on a mayoral run will come next month, but "it's a fair statement I'm giving it serious consideration.
"Randy is who he is, and people are starting to get a better picture," said Finney, a longtime Kelly adversary. "I love my city, and I just think it needs to be led well with a certainty and confidence. I think that person should be somebody who is going to get along with people rather than divide 'em."
As historians, political scientists and insiders wondered whether Kelly made a huge misstep in backing Bush, who won only one of St. Paul's 119 precincts in 2000, everyone agreed on one thing: Kelly is a shrewd political survivor.
And the birthday boy was all smiles one day after announcing that he was breaking ranks to back Bush. Go ahead, call it political suicide.
"I love it when people underestimate and make those kinds of predictions," said Kelly, sounding as though he'll seek a second term. "If you remember three years ago, people said ... 'nobody ... can follow in the footsteps of Norm Coleman. He's a rock star.' Quite honestly, the feedback I've gotten is I've done pretty well."
Kelly said he looks "forward to serving another four years. And I can assure you, if I choose to run, it will be with vigor, energy and the resources to get the message out."
Nothing like some new, well-to-do Republican friends to build the resources he'll need to take on a well-known charismatic rival such as Finney.
'Persona non grata'
Kelly is backing Bush because he says changing presidents "would confuse our friends and encourage our enemies."
Longtime University of Minnesota historian Hy Berman said time will tell whether Kelly's Bush endorsement was a miscalculation or a gutsy move.
"If Bush loses, Randy Kelly is relegated to the dust bin of history," Berman said. "If Bush wins, he'll have some obligations to meet."
When you sell your political soul in a battleground state, Berman and others say, it could lead to an appointment in the Bush administration or on Gov. Tim Pawlenty's team. That is, if Republicans maintain power.
Although Kelly says he'll remain a DFLer, Berman said his Bush endorsement "severs any connection the mayor has with the DFL Party.
"He might consider himself a DFLer, but with the kind of sharp hostilities in DFL circles around the Bush candidacy, that makes Randy Kelly a persona non grata," Berman said.
Kelly supporters say: So what? The last three DFL-endorsed mayoral candidates in St. Paul -- Andy Dawkins, Sandy Pappas and Jay Benanav -- all lost. And Coleman was easily reelected in '97 after switching to the Republican Party.
"The idea that St. Paul is one big DFL monolith is wrong," said Erich Mische, a key adviser to both Kelly and Coleman. "At the end of the day, the people in St. Paul care about whether you kept their taxes down, shoveled their streets and did what you said you'd do."
Kelly supporters point to his aggressive push for new housing and his budget management as issues that will matter more to voters in '05 than his support of Bush.
"Given the tough times we've had, he's run the city well financially and compared to other cities, we have a lot to shout about," said Lois West-Duffy, a longtime Ecolab executive, RiverCentre Authority leader and former aide to Republican U.S. Sen. Dave Durenberger. "Randy has demonstrated he's a risk-taker and people like that. He's made himself his own flak-catcher, but he can handle that."
There is plenty of flak to catch. U.S. Rep. Betty McCollum, a DFLer whose district includes all of St. Paul, said Kelly's "defection is hurtful to loyal Democrats who supported him in the past."
She downplayed its significance despite Minnesota's battleground status and predicted "the Kerry-Edwards ticket will win every precinct in St. Paul, leaving the Bush-Kelly team with a big zero."
Union backlash
Jerry Barnes, business manager of the St. Paul pipefitters union, said he recently made a verbal commitment to Deputy Mayor Dennis Flaherty for the apprentices in the union to make Kelly's reelection lawn signs.
"He just blew that," Barnes said. "In my personal opinion, he committed political suicide and left a lot of labor people who worked for him feeling cold and hard."
Pat Roedler, a 1970s City Council member and retired pipefitter, has been a longtime Kelly backer. Not anymore. "I just think he shot himself in both feet and he's washed up in this town," Roedler said.
As for those who say Kelly is simply borrowing a page from the Coleman playbook, Roedler said: "Let's be honest: Randy Kelly doesn't have Norm Coleman's charisma."
And Prof. Lilly Goren, a political scientist at the College of St. Catherine's, agrees.
"Norm Coleman and Randy Kelly have different personalities and characteristics, and Norm had a statewide run for governor in '98 to raise his profile," she said. "But Norm switched parties and went from being the mayor of St. Paul to a U.S. senator."
Whatever effect the endorsement will have on Kelly's future, Goren said the move is sure to enhance Minnesota's visibility in a close presidential race. Never mind that Minnesota hasn't chosen a Republican in a presidential race since 1972.
"When a Democratic mayor in one of the state's largest cities supports Bush, Republicans have to think it's a viable state to spend their time and money in," she said. "And that raises the profile of Kelly's endorsement."
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http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/4907839.html"
