Doooom!

[Siji]

Make friends with Ben Affleck quick!

http://www.physorg.com/news127499715.html

German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.
Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

[Funkmasterr]

That kind of shit just turns my stomach, cause in my mind it's a lot more likely to happen and be our demise than a lot of the crap people worry about.

[Aslanna]

If it lands in the ocean where does the dust come from? Of course 200 billion tonnes is rather heavy.

[Funkmasterr]

If it lands in the ocean where does the dust come from? Of course 200 billion tonnes is rather heavy.

I am by no means a scientist but my guess would be one of two things:

1- on collision it displaces the water around the impact enough to send dust and debris into the atmosphere, or

2- the waves and/or shockwave would stir up the debris when they hit land?

I could be 300% wrong too, just guessing.

[Canelek]

Sweet, I hope somebody gets the impact on youtube.

[archeiron]

NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations
WASHINGTON — The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.
Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.
This student's conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.
Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.

[Boogahz]

re: ESA denial

Widespread media reports claim that a German schoolboy has recalculated the likelihood of a deadly planet-smasher asteroid hitting the Earth, and found the catastrophe is enormously more likely than NASA thought. The boy's sums were said to have been checked by both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), and found to be correct.

There's only one problem with the story: the kid's sums are in fact wrong, NASA's are right, and the ESA swear blind they never said any different. An ESA spokesman in Germany told the Reg this morning: "A small boy did do these calculations, but he made a mistake... NASA's figures are correct."

It would appear that the intial article in the Potsdamer Neueste Nachrichten, which says that NASA and the ESA endorsed Nico Marquardt's calculations, was incorrect. The story was picked up by German tabloids and the AFP news wire, and is now all over the internet.

Marquardt apparently reckoned that the odds of the well-known Apophis asteroid hitting Earth were not one in 45,000 as assessed by NASA, but rather one in 450. Apophis will pass close by Earth in 2029 and 2036, so close that it will come nearer than satellites in geostationary orbit.

It seems that Marquardt's calculations included the possibility of collision with a satellite in some way not thought to have been covered by NASA, which bumped up the odds of a subsequent Earth strike. But NASA says:

[The asteroid will pass] within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

All in all, it seems there's no need to dust off the asteroid-busting space nukes just yet.

[Winnow]

Take that you Hitler Youth!

[Noysyrump]

I think we should blow it up, just to show the ChiComs we can....

[Siji]

Someone tell Cheney that there's oil on them there asteroids..

[cadalano]

If it lands in the ocean where does the dust come from? Of course 200 billion tonnes is rather heavy.

the statement was sensationalism, much like the entire article itself!

[Winnow]

An asteroid of that size would vaporize the water in the immediate area of impact.

On its way to the impact, the asteroid pushes aside the air in front of it creating a hole in the atmosphere. The atmosphere above the impact site is removed for several tens of seconds. Before the surrounding air can rush back in to fill the gap, material from the impact: vaporized asteroid, crustal material, and ocean water (if it lands in the ocean), escapes through the hole and follows a ballistic flight back down. Within two minutes after impact, about 105 cubic kilometers of ejecta (1013 tons) is lofted to about 100 kilometers. If the asteroid hits the ocean, the surrounding water returning over the the hot crater floor is vaporized (a large enough impact will break through to the hot lithosphere and maybe the even hotter asthenosphere), sending more water vapor into the air as well as causing huge steam explosions that greatly compound the effect of the initial impact explosion.

There will be a crater regardless of where it lands. The diameter of the crater in kilometers is = (energy of impact)(1/3.4)/106.77. Plugging in the typical impact values, you get a 150-kilometer diameter crater for the 10-kilometer asteroid and a 20-kilometer diameter crater for the 1-kilometer asteroid. The initial blast would also produce shifting of the crust along fault lines.

[Siji]

105 cubic kilometers of ejecta

You know it's good sex when you've got that much ejecta..

[Ashur]

105 cubic kilometers of ejecta

You know it's good sex when you've got that much ejecta..

Someone's definitely getting fucked if it hits...

[Jice Virago]

A lot of the dust in the air would come from a combination of burn off as it enters the atmosphere and from any islands that get vaporized in the viscinity where it lands. There would also be a huge amount of ocean water vaporized from the impact, which would generate thick cloud cover that could last for centuries. Of course, the more pressing concern is the fact that the shock wave and heat would fucking wipe out most of the algae in the Atlantic, most likely permafucking the oxygen supply of the planet.

I wouldn't worry about any of this, though. First off, it was going to hit us, no one would ever tell us. Second, we are in for a much more severe fuck over from mother nature when the magnetic poles shift again, sometime in the next decade.

[Bagar-]

Somehow I never quite pictured an apocolypse where we all suffocate.

[Xouqoa]

Everyone's definitely getting fucked if it hits...

Fixed.