Writers guild strike

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » November 10, 2007, 12:10 am

Nice video here:
http://www.b3ta.com/links/Writers_Guild ... _explained

Fash · Post by **Fash** » November 12, 2007, 1:09 am

Hollywood strike underlines bleak outlook for movie business
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/11/ ... strike.php

LOS ANGELES: As Hollywood digs in for a second week of a strike, the screenwriters might want to send a few angry picketers over to Will Smith's place. Or Steven Spielberg's.

And maybe the studio executives should think about joining them on the line.

As it turns out, the pot of money that the producers and writers are fighting over may have already been pocketed by the entertainment industry's biggest talent.

That is the conclusion of a surprisingly bleak new assessment of financial dynamics in the movie industry titled "Do Movies Make Money?" The researchers' answer: not any more.

The report, by the research company Global Media Intelligence in association with its partner Merrill Lynch, concludes that much of the income - past and future - that studios and writers have been fighting about has already gone to the biggest stars, directors and producers in the form of ballooning participation deals. A participation is a share in the gross revenue, not the profit, of a movie.

Through the twists and turns of contemporary deal-making, major studios in theory give away as much as 25 percent of a film's receipts under such arrangements.

The actual take is lower, because of certain adjustments. (This is Hollywood, after all.) But a Hanks, Cruise or Carrey whose movie brings $600 million back to the studio from all sources might easily wind up with a $20 million salary, and an additional $50 million on the back end, while an A-list director and producer could take in tens of millions more.

Industry-wide, the tab piled up to $3 billion or more last year, by the research company's reckoning, helping push the business of making films, which was somewhat profitable a few years ago, into a loss.

Roger Smith, a former film executive who worked more than six months on the report, said the effect of participations is huge, because "they can easily be paid out on money-losing pictures."

For the study, Smith and his team examined all films distributed in recent years by the six major studios, plus DreamWorks, which was independent before its acquisition by Paramount Pictures. It included movies from the primary studio operations, along with the bigger movies from specialty film units like Warner Independent Pictures. And not all of the films are completely owned by the studios, since some have equity investors.

The study estimated that all such releases last year would yield a combined loss of $1.9 billion after collecting the revenue from an entire first cycle of sales to domestic theaters, foreign theaters, home video, pay television and every other source of income.

Total sales for last year's slate, the company figures, will ultimately be about $23.7 billion, down about 4.6 percent from 2004. Total costs, meanwhile, rose to $25.6 billion, up 13.2 percent.

As he began working up the numbers last spring, Smith, who is the executive editor and motion picture analyst for Global Media Intelligence, a unit of the London-based Screen Digest, anticipated a harsh response from the studio owners. But with writers on the warpath for a larger share of what they see as expanding corporate profits, Smith said he was now braced for skepticism from the labor side.

In fact, neither side should be cheered by figures that describe an industry that has increasingly doled out its wealth to star performers and filmmakers, at the expense of almost everyone else.

Part of the bad news for the film industry came from a sharp decline in foreign DVD sales. Those dropped 15.5 percent in the period, while domestic DVD sales fell at half that rate.

But the real killer was the growth in participations. Their precise amount is difficult to reckon, because deals vary and details are seldom disclosed publicly. But Global Media noted that at Disney - which is unusual in that its financial reports break out annual outlays for participations and residuals - the figure had grown at a compound annual rate of 37.6 percent for the last five years, to $554 million.

If the other companies are spending at a similar rate, said the researchers, they are paying out shares worth $3 billion, while piling up an almost $2 billion loss on their new films.

A relatively small part of that goes to the guilds in the form of residuals, the contractual payments that writers get when their work reappears in various media - and which the writers are insisting be increased for media of the future.

According to a report from the Writers Guild of America West, which represents most of Hollywood writers, movie residuals were just $121.3 million in 2006, a mere drop in the $3 billion bucket.

A big star, by contrast, can easily make $70 million or more from a single hit, if he or she enjoys a so-called first dollar gross deal.

There is a marketplace justice to such arrangements. Unlike the much-derided "net profit" deals granted to weaker players - those points seldom get paid, because there is always some studio charge in the way - gross participations give valuable talent a real share of the action.

"Profit participations are negotiated between a willing buyer and a willing seller," said Steven Blume, chief operating officer of Content Partners, a Los Angeles company that buys participations in return for cash.

The terms, he noted, can change with every movie, making them more flexible than residuals, which become locked into long-term master contracts with the guilds.

But, from the studio point of view, this sort of payment is a bit like having a mortgage that does not amortize.

"These participations are paid in perpetuity," Blume said.

And therein lie new problems for studios that may have gotten too comfortable with such payouts in the last decade or so.

According to Global Media Intelligence, studios a few years ago could count on rising DVD sales to lift their properties into profitability in a five-year first trip through the marketplace. Then, fully paid for, the movies would provide a smaller but near-endless stream of income from library sales over the decades.

Now, however, those same releases are joining the library with multibillion-dollar losses in tow - and they continue to be weighed down by gross participations that never stop.

Even Disney's strong corporate performance in the past year does not necessary bode well. The company's studio unit, which was profitable for the year, had essentially flat revenue, at about $7.5 billion.

Despite a huge hit with "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," much profit, company executives said, came from the mining of its library with clever ploys like the "Little Mermaid" Platinum Release DVD, which sold nine million units without the burden of star participations.

Once it is understood that the biggest stars and directors can rake in dollars even from money-losing movies, it becomes easier to understand why companies dug in their heels when asked to make richer residual payments on media of the future than they offered on home video of the past.

These would trigger higher payments to other guilds, and would probably create pressure from lawyers and agents in search of still fatter participation deals for their star clients.

It is also not hard to see why the situation is especially galling for movie writers, who typically do not share in the most lucrative gross deals.

When it comes to finding a fix, some of the stars and filmmakers who have joined them on the picket lines may have a thought.

Straight up bad business to a retarded level. It might be time for it to die.

Zaelath · Post by **Zaelath** » November 12, 2007, 1:33 am

Yeah, sorry, the studios inability to write contracts isn't the writers guild's fault. The very idea that these idiots are "profit sharing" before there's a profit makes me laugh up my sleeve at them, and to be honest the only way out for them is to stop realying on "bankable" actors and start spending more money on writing.

Quality script + half decent actor >> Rubbish script + high profile actor

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » November 12, 2007, 3:07 am

Yeah, it seems to me that this business practice could easily be remedied by dumping these "stars" and investing in some quality writers to actually create characters worth watching. Instead of relying on Tom Hanks to drive a shitty movie home, get an Alan Bell to write a screenplay that makes people think and appreciate art.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » January 8, 2008, 7:27 pm

Over two months later.. Does anyone really care about this strike? I don't mean how it affects those directly involved (writers and studios) but how it impacts everyone else. Of course I wasn't a couch potato to begin with but my life seems to be going on just fine.

Post by **Sylvus** » January 8, 2008, 7:32 pm

I kind of care. It's disappointing that I have very few shows that I bother watching and that they have already been or are soon to be affected by the strike. I missed Daily Show and Colbert Report, though I thought both of them were hilarious last night, even without writers; I'm happy they are back. Lost has 8 shows in the bag, too bad the strike will still be going on and I'll have to wait a whole year to see the second half of this season. Heroes was already screwed up by the strike.

And beyond that, depending on how long the strike goes on, what's going to happen to movies? You don't see much of an effect right now because of the long periods of time between a movie being shot and the movie being released, but what's going to happen if this strike lasts a year? I don't think they can just replace it with Deal or No Deal: The Movie.

Canelek · Post by **Canelek** » January 8, 2008, 8:10 pm

They will just continue cranking out Pirates of the Caribbean movies. No need for writing there!

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » January 8, 2008, 8:35 pm

Aslanna wrote:Over two months later.. Does anyone really care about this strike? I don't mean how it affects those directly involved (writers and studios) but how it impacts everyone else. Of course I wasn't a couch potato to begin with but my life seems to be going on just fine.

yeah, I care. I have friends that are directly affected due to their work on a couple shows as well. One actually is a writer, and I nag her to get back to work each time we talk. I hate "reality" shows, and they are pretty much all that gets aired now.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 8, 2008, 8:43 pm

Yes, I care. Because the points still remain.

I hope they hold out until all tv is reality shows and the retards that dont think basic rights for people who create entertainment are less important than lining the pockets of big tv corporations and making pithy comments on message boards stop being fuckwits and start supporting it.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » January 8, 2008, 10:48 pm

By caring I meant as it relates to not having new shows to watch and not whatever Nick is on about because I wanted to specifically skip over that aspect of the whole mess. Which is why I stated I wasn't talking about how it affected those directly involved. That a bit more clear to you now?

Anyway... I guess the level of ones caring is equivalent to how addicted to television you are. For me it's really nothing more than a distraction so not having new shows doesn't bother me. It actually ends up giving me more freetime as there's nothing worthwhile to watch.

As far as movies go... Even that's not a big deal. Not every movie comes out of Hollywood. Or America. Writers all around the world are still working.

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » January 8, 2008, 11:44 pm

I care, because Battlestar Galactica makes me care. Because I heart Kara, and I want to have all 20 some episodes.

Xatrei · Post by **Xatrei** » January 9, 2008, 1:51 am

It's not affecting me too much since I'm not a big TV watcher. The only things currently affected that I really miss are The Daily Show / Colbert Report and The Office. I also watch some of the dramas and comedies on the HBO and Showtime networks, but the strike hasn't really affected those yet. Otherwise, my TV watching usually consists of having MSNBC on in the background while I do other stuff, or watching a football game.

For the sake of The Daily Show, The Colbert Report and The Office, I hope things are resolved soon. So far (2 nights) TDS/TCR are OK without the writers, but they're off. Dirt-bag media companies need to get their heads out of their asses and treat the writers right.

Fairweather Pure · Post by **Fairweather Pure** » January 9, 2008, 4:57 am

Sylvus wrote:And beyond that, depending on how long the strike goes on, what's going to happen to movies? You don't see much of an effect right now because of the long periods of time between a movie being shot and the movie being released, but what's going to happen if this strike lasts a year? I don't think they can just replace it with Deal or No Deal: The Movie.

The major studios bought a metric fuckload of scripts prior to this strike. They could make movies for a good 2-3 years (at least) based on what they have. The real issue is rewrites. That's where things get sticky.

The strike hasn't affected me at all. If I hadn't read about it, I wouldn't even be aware it's happening. For that reason, I'm not very simpathetic to either side. I'm very "meh" about the whole ordeal.

If I'm not watching movies, it's daytime reruns of stuff like Myth Busters or else I'm gaming. I buy the seasons of my favorite shows on DVD when they are released (Office, Lost, Heros, stuff like that). Other than that, I have not watched an evening program/series in over 3 years. Not even since I got my DVR.

cadalano · Post by **cadalano** » January 9, 2008, 3:00 pm

the strike needs to end. my girlflriend is running out of her garbage TV shows to keep her occupied

yesterday she was watching me play Civ4 for fucks sake. and then she makes me download it for her because she saw that "it has a horsie!!"

1.5 hour download for 5 minutes of gameplay before she got tired of it wtfux

Fash · Post by **Fash** » January 9, 2008, 3:10 pm

cadalano wrote:the strike needs to end. my girlflriend is running out of her garbage TV shows to keep her occupied

yesterday she was watching me play Civ4 for fucks sake. and then she makes me download it for her because she saw that "it has a horsie!!"

1.5 hour download for 5 minutes of gameplay before she got tired of it wtfux

Still picking up girls from the junior high school huh?

cadalano · Post by **cadalano** » January 9, 2008, 3:31 pm

i keep getting older, they stay the same age

yes they do. yes they do.

Lynks · Post by **Lynks** » January 9, 2008, 4:17 pm

My wife just watches me play Halo 3 now and she keeps asking me questions like "Where did that guy go?" or "How come you aren't shooting at him?" or "Why dont you pay attention to me anymore?"

Chidoro · Post by **Chidoro** » January 9, 2008, 5:35 pm

Aslanna wrote:Over two months later.. Does anyone really care about this strike? I don't mean how it affects those directly involved (writers and studios) but how it impacts everyone else. Of course I wasn't a couch potato to begin with but my life seems to be going on just fine.

It hasn't changed my life either so I don't really care. I predominantly watch sports, play video games and play Go. If I go out for entertainment it would most likely be to see a comic or a live show. I haven't watched a movie in a theatre since Sideways I think.

It sucks that they aren't getting anywhere but I haven't been effected at all. My tv watching get screwed up once hockey season is over and it happens every year in June

Leonaerd · Post by **Leonaerd** » January 9, 2008, 5:44 pm

Aslanna wrote:Over two months later.. Does anyone really care about this strike? I don't mean how it affects those directly involved (writers and studios) but how it impacts everyone else. Of course I wasn't a couch potato to begin with but my life seems to be going on just fine.

The only thing I miss (or have even noticed a lack of) is The Office. We wants it back.

Ashur · Post by **Ashur** » January 9, 2008, 6:39 pm

I have no time for TV. I didn't even watch it (except Heroes) prior to picking up EQ2. Now, no time at all.

Then again, I have a nearly four-year old who pretty much just watches reruns of childrens programming.

Guild Writers strike? /yawn, I hope they win, but it doesn't have an impact on me.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 10, 2008, 1:22 am

They picked a very bad time to go on strike. People don't care as much about TV anymore. I do enjoy a few series like BSG, The Office, etc but I couldn't tell you what day of the week the original episodes aired (except Heroes). I just check the newsgroups once in awhile to see if there's a new episode available. The only show I used my DVR to record was Chuck and I just watched the last episode two days ago which had aired two or three weeks ago.

The amount of commercials in broadcast TV is distracting to the point where I would never watch a show live anyway except for sports. All shows need to go the PPV route or an HBO type model. Tampon brands need to find another way to reach their potential users...maybe ads in bathroom stalls perhaps?

The Writer's strike is going to be about as successful as the Hockey strike was for all involved.

Neroon · Post by **Neroon** » January 12, 2008, 6:53 pm

The Daily Show and Colbert Report don't even seem any different without writers

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 12, 2008, 11:15 pm

They didn't pick a bad time to go on strike.

The reality is the corporations will be brought to their knees eventually, time favours the writers. Maybe some of you think that eternal re-runs should be the future of creative television, all I can say is grats, you idiots.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » January 12, 2008, 11:25 pm

Who mentioned anything about reruns?

Idiot.

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » January 13, 2008, 12:03 am

yeah, they aren't even showing reruns, they're showing "reality" tv.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 13, 2008, 12:24 am

Aslanna wrote:Who mentioned anything about reruns?

Idiot.

Thanks for yet another completely worthless post. Are you actually just that unaware of basic concepts in the thread or are you just trying to be an ironic asshole?

Edit: Oh what a surprise, Boogahz is bringing up the rear.

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » January 13, 2008, 12:29 am

Nick wrote:
Aslanna wrote:Who mentioned anything about reruns?

Idiot.
Thanks for yet another completely worthless post. Are you actually just that unaware of basic concepts in the thread or are you just trying to be an ironic asshole?

Edit: Oh what a surprise, Boogahz is bringing up the rear.

way to miss the point. I am all for the strike ending. I even mentioned knowing people personally that are out of work while it continues.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » January 13, 2008, 12:34 am

Nick wrote:Thanks for yet another completely worthless post. Are you actually just that unaware of basic concepts in the thread or are you just trying to be an ironic asshole?

What was worthless about it? You claim people here are wanting to just watch reruns. I don't see that anywhere in this thread. Perhaps if you care to explain it further I'd be able to see your, as of yet non-existant, point.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 13, 2008, 12:36 am

Oh yes, I forgot that we live in a world where if Aslanna asserts blindly that a point is non existant then it must be so.

You're the moron simplifying the issue, not anyone else, maybe you've forgotten that in your ageing attempt at smugness.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » January 13, 2008, 12:43 am

Yeah that's what I thought. Typical Nick. Surprised you didn't throw something in there about how America sucks.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 13, 2008, 12:56 am

America does suck. Get over it.

happy now?

Got anymore stereotypes you wish to impose on anyone whose unfortunate enough to be listening to your shit before we finish this thread or are we done here?

Sueven · Post by **Sueven** » January 13, 2008, 1:41 am

ESPN doesn't seem any different to me!

I think it's a bad time for the strike from the perspective of the networks. Viewers who stop watching TV are hard to lure back, especially if they switch over to video games, the internet, or any of the other array of entertainment technology that's available on glowing screens these days.

I don't know a damn thing about the strike, the union that's involved, how the labor relationship is structured, or anything, but: Why don't the networks just hire new writers? Is network TV really written THAT brilliantly? Is there a mysterious shortage of unemployed english majors who would be willing to move to Hollywood and write?

Midnyte_Ragebringer · January 13, 2008, 2:34 am

No it isn't written that brilliantly. That is why no one gives a shit there are few new TV shows. There are way too many other things out there. This is a fight between between two very rich groups about wanting to be richer and wanting to prevent the other from getting richer. When they get back, they get back.

Canelek · Post by **Canelek** » January 13, 2008, 3:11 am

You have many balding man avatars.

Spang · Post by **Spang** » January 13, 2008, 3:37 am

Sueven wrote:ESPN doesn't seem any different to me!

I think it's a bad time for the strike from the perspective of the networks. Viewers who stop watching TV are hard to lure back, especially if they switch over to video games, the internet, or any of the other array of entertainment technology that's available on glowing screens these days.

I don't know a damn thing about the strike, the union that's involved, how the labor relationship is structured, or anything, but: Why don't the networks just hire new writers? Is network TV really written THAT brilliantly? Is there a mysterious shortage of unemployed english majors who would be willing to move to Hollywood and write?

As far as I know, you have to be in the union in order to work as a writer for the major television networks and movie studios.

Midnyte_Ragebringer · January 13, 2008, 10:45 am

Canelek wrote:You have many balding man avatars.

Indeed.

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » January 13, 2008, 11:24 am

Nothing wrong with bald avatars.

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » January 13, 2008, 12:56 pm

Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:No it isn't written that brilliantly. That is why no one gives a shit there are few new TV shows. There are way too many other things out there. This is a fight between between two very rich groups about wanting to be richer and wanting to prevent the other from getting richer. When they get back, they get back.

Wait, you think the writers are rich? lol

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » January 13, 2008, 2:08 pm

I was listening to an interview on the Bob and Tom show with the head writer of the David Letterman show, and apparently 1/2 of the members in the Writer's Guild qualify for the free medical insurance. The cap point for that insurance is 30,000 dollars a year. So no, they're not rich against rich. Perhaps the top few percent of writers are the super money makers, 1 million plus on a picture, but most are unemployed for long periods of time, hence the need for the new terms to the contract.

Chidoro · Post by **Chidoro** » January 14, 2008, 2:23 pm

Nick wrote:They didn't pick a bad time to go on strike.

The reality is the corporations will be brought to their knees eventually, time favours the writers. Maybe some of you think that eternal re-runs should be the future of creative television, all I can say is grats, you idiots.

I don't know about the other biggies but NBC is owned by GE and they don't fuck around. With all of the other choices of entertainment out there not to mention the number of TV channels already out there that don't require a writer's guild member, it's the worst time in history for them to be striking. And that's not to say that I don't think their cause is just either, it's that it is a shitty time to be doing it.

It's not about re-runs, it's about alternative programming. The TV audience are already splintered from the main shows on main channels; top rated shows have nowhere near the ratings they used to have. People can and do move on. If they want to watch TV, they'll watch something. If they don't, they'll do something else. That's not something profound, it's just what's going to happen.

Fash · Post by **Fash** » January 14, 2008, 2:30 pm

I do feel bad for the writers, though.. They do deserve more, and It's not their fault the networks and studios built an unsustainable business model that isn't allowing them to give in to these demands.

On the other hand, if you accept a job, go to fucking work. If you aren't happy with the terms, quit and take your labor elsewhere. This isn't a positive in the union column.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 15, 2008, 1:01 am

What type of fucking moronic reasoning is that Fash?

Oh, I choose to be a writer, therefore I have to let corporations dick me in the ass. If I don't like it, I should not bother fulfilling my dream because some arrogant deluded fuckwits wish me to not benefit from my own work. Nevermind the fact that this ends up affecting the artistic output of writers, because its all about the bucks amirite? Writers don't deserve a fair pay, and if they disagree, they should fuck off and become firemen amirite? LOL!

Fash · Post by **Fash** » January 15, 2008, 4:05 am

Maybe you're misunderstanding me or missed the first paragraph...

It's not that they chose to be writers, it's that they accepted a specific position at a specific place for a specific wage. They accepted the terms of employment and now they're not happy. If not for the union, each person would have to decide for themselves if they wanted to find another job (like the rest of us) for more money, or stick it out. It has nothing to do with being a writer in general.

Way to fly off the handle, lucky.

Mak · Post by **Mak** » January 15, 2008, 4:16 am

Fash wrote:Maybe you're misunderstanding me or missed the first paragraph...

It's not that they chose to be writers, it's that they accepted a specific position at a specific place for a specific wage. They accepted the terms of employment and now they're not happy. If not for the union, each person would have to decide for themselves if they wanted to find another job (like the rest of us) for more money, or stick it out. It has nothing to do with being a writer in general.

Way to fly off the handle, lucky.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the contract the writers were working on has expired, and they are striking for new terms on a new contract. So, technically speaking, they DID work under the terms of employment they were hired at, but now those terms are no longer in effect- thus the current issue.

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » January 15, 2008, 9:03 pm

Mak is right. This is just a renegotiation of an expired contract. And correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't one of the reasons unions were created was so large numbers of workers could walk away at the same time if they weren't happy with their working conditions? They are basically doing what you said they should do, Fash. In the system you were advocating, the only worthwhile way of making progress in your work place is to have a mass exodus of workers to demand better working conditions. Otherwise, one writer would leave and another would replace him. The only way to bring about change in these situations is a large-scale renegotiation.

Fash · Post by **Fash** » January 15, 2008, 9:16 pm

Kaldaur wrote:Mak is right. This is just a renegotiation of an expired contract. And correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't one of the reasons unions were created was so large numbers of workers could walk away at the same time if they weren't happy with their working conditions? They are basically doing what you said they should do, Fash. In the system you were advocating, the only worthwhile way of making progress in your work place is to have a mass exodus of workers to demand better working conditions. Otherwise, one writer would leave and another would replace him. The only way to bring about change in these situations is a large-scale renegotiation.

You make a fair point.. the difference is, they aren't walking away... they're protesting, demanding more money, and stopping the employer from being able to conduct business.

Tyek · Post by **Tyek** » January 15, 2008, 9:20 pm

Exactly, it's called a strike.

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » January 16, 2008, 11:40 am

It sounds like the Germans won't have to suffer through the same crap we get here (when it comes to American TV shows) during the strike due to the additional time needed for dubbing. Also, I had not considered the international impact this strike, and resolution, could have on writers elsewhere.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,214 ... 40,00.html

Broadcast Gap Protects German TV From US Writers' Strike

German TV stations are counting on the gap between the US broadcast and the airing of the dubbed versions of American shows to protect them from a scriptwriters' strike that has plastered US screens with re-runs.

To Sandra Kern, the idea of having being stuck with re-runs rather than new episodes the US-hit series "Lost" is very upsetting.

"Right now, I keep Monday nights free of other commitments," the 32-year old said from her home in Cologne. "If there were only re-runs I'd probably do something besides watch TV, because I wouldn't want to have to watch something else."

But Kern and other German viewers are unlikely to be faced with re-runs of "Lost" as the ProSieben channel still has 15 of season three's 22 episodes and can fall back on the eight episodes of season four that were already produced before the US writers' strike began on Nov. 5.

"The gap between the broadcast dates has kept us from feeling any real effects of the strike," ProSieben spokeswoman Katja Pichler said.

Germans hoping for an agreement -- soon

But the gap isn't as large for other series. The fourth, and newest, season of "Grey's Anatomy," also shown on ProSieben, is set to start in Germany in February. While the 11 shows produced before the strike began are waiting to be broadcast in Germany, Pichler said the channel has not decided what it will do if no new episodes arrive from the US.

"We are hoping the strike will end, and that we don't have to change our schedule," she said, adding that ProSieben needs six months to dub an episode of an American series into German.

RTL, another major commercial German TV station, also said it has not yet determined how it will react if it runs out of "CSI," "House M.D." or "Law and Order" episodes, according to spokesman Claus Richter.

"We don't have to be worried until autumn 2008," Richter said. "Half the episodes for RTL's series are ready and will be aired. After that, we'll have to decide if we show re-runs or something completely different."

Sticking with US staples

But neither ProSieben nor RTL, which regularly compete for the best ratings in the lucrative 14-49 age group, said they are planning to make any long-term changes to their programming based on the strike, and that they would continue buying and broadcasting US series.

"We are happy with the strength of our US series and think viewers will come back when there are new episodes," Pichler said.

ProSieben and RTL are the two German broadcasters that rely most on US programming.

According to a 2006 program analysis, 78 percent of ProSieben's and 47 percent of RTL's fictional programming came from the United States.

A matter of taste

Germany's publicly funded stations rely less on US productions, with the top two, ARD and ZDF, buying 21 percent and 22 percent of their fiction programming from the US. The two channels have also successfully invested in British, Scandinavian and French mystery series, according to Wolfgang Seufert, a professor at the University of Jena.

"In all, there is a clear preference for German series, followed by US productions and then series from other countries," he said, adding that a few US series beat out local productions to earn top ratings in Germany.

But Kern said German series just don't hold her attention.

"When I watch a German mystery I know who the murderer is in the first 10 minutes and change the channel," Kern said. "But I get sucked into the US shows and have to see what's going to happen next."

Viewers will wait it out

That's good news for German broadcasters, since home-grown productions cost more than purchasing and dubbing foreign series, Seufert said, He added that broadcasters can relax in knowing that viewers will be back whenever new episodes are ready to air.

"Overall TV use is relatively independent of what's being shown," he said, adding that the average German household has a choice of 30 channels. "When people's favorite show isn't on, they'll watch something else and then switch back when their favorite show is back."

Possible benefits for German writers

Viewers who are willing to sit through repeats or watch another program lower the chances that the Writers Guild of America strike -- especially if it ends soon -- will help German writers sell more scripts, according to Katharina Uppenbrink, head of the German Scriptwriters' Association.

"If the strike ends soon, I don't expect much of a change in stations' policies," she said.

But if the US writers' demands are met, it could help Germans' negotiating position when marketing their work, Uppenbrink said.

Though differences in German and US labor structure make a direct comparisons difficult, the average pay for all the rights to an episode of a German series, which can take between weeks and months to complete depending on the author, is between 23,000 euros and 24,000 euros ($34,200 and $35,700), she said. Over a five-year period, US writers earn an average annual income of $62,000, according to the Writers Guild of America.

"We're really watching what happens in the US because it would serve as a guide for Germans and Europeans," she said. "But right now it's still too early to tell what will happen."

Chidoro · Post by **Chidoro** » January 16, 2008, 4:00 pm

Boogahz wrote:It sounds like the Germans won't have to suffer through the same crap we get here (when it comes to American TV shows) during the strike due to the additional time needed for dubbing. Also, I had not considered the international impact this strike, and resolution, could have on writers elsewhere.

Heh, what do you care, the bundesliga gets off their ridiculously long winter break in two weeks

Funkmasterr · Post by **Funkmasterr** » January 16, 2008, 4:08 pm

Not totally related, but while watching American Idol last night I saw a lot of commercials for the Screen Actors Guild awards and got to thinking... It had a much better ring to it in Team America when it was the Film Actors Guild. They should really change that.