North Korea

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North Korea

Post by Acies »

North Korea

I think that this is by far a potentially more dangerous situation than the bullshit going on in Iraq. I want to know what the rest of you fine people think of this issue, and what the U.N. should do, if anything.
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Very scary indeed.

Who the fuck knows what the UN will do. They made resolution 1441 and didn't stick with it. Who the hell will fear the UN now? They are spineless. I hope whatever they do though, is a unanimous effort, so their can be a little solidarity, instead of all this separation going on now.
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Post by Dregor Thule »

My gut tells me this is going to get much messier before it gets better. I'm also sort of thinking someones going to get nuked, but that's a longshot. It's a good thing they have so many people trained in the arts of combat, thanks to Lineage.
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Post by Atokal »

Screw the UN and screw the Koreans.

The UN has proven itself to be a completely ineffective and toothless organization. So having any expectations of the UN doing anything with the Korean situation is absurd.

Let them kill each other if that is what they truly desire.
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Post by noel »

I agree. Their behavior lately has been nothing short of disconcerting. This is definitely a situation that merits watching closely.
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Post by Soriathus Serpentine »

I think North Korea if anything is taking advantage of a good situation. We've got our forces and attention in more than one place right now, not a better time than this to make a stink. Agreed it is probably going to get worse before it gets better. They've got the technology that Iraq doesn't. I'm definitely more scared of something REAL starting with N Korea more than I am Iraq.

Edit after Atokal's post: Dude, before you make BS comments go here and read all the crap that's actually going on with N. Korea:
http://search.cnn.com/cnn/search?source ... orth+Korea+
Last edited by Soriathus Serpentine on February 18, 2003, 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Acies »

Do not get me wrong, I am not very Keen on war, but honestly, if a peaceable solution does not present itself and North Korea starts building nukes by the scads, then we need to stop them on a permanent basis.
North Korea's army does not per se worry me. We have been perfecting anti-ballistic missle systems in the U.S. pretty extensively recently.
What REALLY worries me is we know that North Korea IS a weapons supplier, and I cannot help but wonder wether or not a WoMD will end up in the hands of a terrorist organization. Let's not forget that Northern Korea does not feel too fondly for the Western world themselves.
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Post by Brotha »

I agree, N. Korea is potentially more dangerous than Iraq, but there's just not much else we can do at this time. Any military options besides maybe helping Japan beef up w/ some equipment and sending over a few more carriers would just provoke N. Korea and be counterproductive.

Personally, I think this is clearly just a ploy by N. Korea to get more concessions and be recognized as "a big boy" by the United States. You don't develop nukes in public because you have the intention of imminently using them, you do it to deter other nations and use it as a bargaining chip. I don't see this escalating into anything more.
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Post by Dregor Thule »

Yep. U.S. attention should be focused on the much greater threat of N.Korea instead of Iraq, but Dubyah's got a grudge against thems eye-rak-kee's. The best part is that, or at least in my opinion, America has a good reason to... hmm... "deal" with N.Korea, much better than they do Iraq. N.Korea is basically making threats at you guys, blatantly and openly. They just haven't been painted as much of a threat by the media yet.
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Post by Metanis »

Now here is a scary thought... the last line of Acies linked article >
On Tuesday, outgoing South Korean President Kim Dae-jung said North Korea could never be allowed to maintain nuclear weapons because it would trigger a nuclear arms race across Asia.
Gosh, NK is such a poor misunderstood country. I'm wringing my hands and gnashing my teeth wondering just how to deal with this situation.

Maybe as a start the USA could simply refuse to be bullied and tell NK to kinda like... well, you know... just FUCK OFF?
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Post by Shaerra »

It's hard to win a war when most of your troops laugh hysterically every time someone says Pyongyang.
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Post by kyoukan »

Bush is avoiding Korea because any military action against them would be political suicide. Any president that gets back into it with the North Koreans are going to be into it with another 10 year long war against a well trained, well entrenched and extremely patriotic army that will cost America 10's or even 100's of thousands of lives. Not to mention artillery within striking distance of Seoul and missile capabilities able to hit basically any asian country.

You can't treat North Korea like you treat some middle eastern rat hole country. They are perfectly content with sitting behind the DMZ and building missiles that will hit anything, an aggresor army would have to step to them on their terms. They have anti-air capabilities far beyond anything the US has tried themselves against in real combat as well as a reasonably modern air force of Soviet made aircraft.

Any president that tangles it up with North Korea had better do it on his second term with the knowledge that whoever comes after him won't be in the same political party.

So Bush can't tangle with them, and he can't negotiate with them given his current position without looking like a back pedaller (well even more of a back pedaller).

Currently North Korea is unable to continue to exist in it's present state. They need to either threaten/fight with their neighbors to get what they want, or they need to overhaul their political system and start cooperating with their neighbors. I don't see them overhauling their current government even if they wanted to. Any form of uprising or revolution in DPRK would have to have total support of everyone and would still cost millions of lives.

But Iraq has sweet, sweet oil.
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Post by masteen »

Don't China and N. Korea have a mutual defense treaty? That makes the whole issue very sticky.
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Post by kyoukan »

http://www.ioc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~worldjpn/ ... 1.T1E.html

They have a mutual assistance agreement from 1961 that extends (speciously) to military assistance in article 1 and 2, but China probably would not want to get too involved with DPRK's military affairs because any action taken against them would be because of violations of the nuclear proliferation act or even the armistice. Also, all of these mutual agreements were signed during the cold war when the USSR and China and the DPRK were forced to stick together to stay alive.

China is on the road to becoming a world super power and their government knows that any sort of major war would mess that up pretty badly.
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Post by masteen »

So basically, if we can keep Dubya from waving his penis all over the global media, we could oust that jackhole from power and set them on a path toward developing a real infrastructure and economy?
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Post by Forthe »

kyoukan type-R wrote:http://www.ioc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~worldjpn/ ... 1.T1E.html

They have a mutual assistance agreement from 1961 that extends (speciously) to military assistance in article 1 and 2, but China probably would not want to get too involved with DPRK's military affairs because any action taken against them would be because of violations of the nuclear proliferation act or even the armistice. Also, all of these mutual agreements were signed during the cold war when the USSR and China and the DPRK were forced to stick together to stay alive.

China is on the road to becoming a world super power and their government knows that any sort of major war would mess that up pretty badly.
However, the motivation (for lack of a better word atm) that brought China into the Korean war 50 years ago still exists today. Having the US at the border isn't any more likely to be tolerated today as it was then.

IMHO China's entry into a new Korean war would be a coin toss. I can't see the US risking having 3 million chineese storming across the border. They would need a firm commitment from China not to get involved to even consider invading.
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Post by Millie »

What a perfect fucking time for Bush to be wasting resources and human lives on his cowboy oil war in Iraq!
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Post by kyoukan »

masteen wrote:So basically, if we can keep Dubya from waving his penis all over the global media, we could oust that jackhole from power and set them on a path toward developing a real infrastructure and economy?
no. the Great Leader is wildly popular in the DPRK due to basically non-stop propaganda and blackouts on all other forms of media other than state-run.
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Post by kyoukan »

Forthe wrote:However, the motivation (for lack of a better word atm) that brought China into the Korean war 50 years ago still exists today. Having the US at the border isn't any more likely to be tolerated today as it was then.

IMHO China's entry into a new Korean war would be a coin toss. I can't see the US risking having 3 million chineese storming across the border. They would need a firm commitment from China not to get involved to even consider invading.
China is moving farther and farther away from communism and more towards a socialist/capitalist hybrid with each passing generation. They still have what is considered to be an extremely communist-style fascist government and a spotty reputation for human rights violations, but even that is becoming more open in general.

Especially when it comes to education, more and more chinese are studying abroad in Canada and the US in areas such as economics and social sciences as opposed to only sciences and industrial arts like they used to be. Marxism is a pretty shitty way to run a government; it's just taken the Chinese a decade or so longer than the Soviets to figure it out.

There probably won't be a major coup in China however; it will probably be more of a gradual change.

I don't think China would involve themselves to much extent in a war with North Korea.
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Post by Kluden »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought in the recent weeks, China has agreed to help out with a peaceful resolution. In other words, they have volunteered people and money and resources to help the commitee of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.

Atleast I thought that is what I read in one of those bbc articles. I believe it went on to say that China has no interest in backing any sides if it were to come to militaristic conclusions. I'll look for that article...
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Post by Karae »

Dregor Thule wrote:My gut tells me this is going to get much messier before it gets better. I'm also sort of thinking someones going to get nuked, but that's a longshot. It's a good thing they have so many people trained in the arts of combat, thanks to Lineage.
Don't forget their EXTENSIVE tactical training (Starcraft)
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Post by kyoukan »

I don't think they have a lot of videogames and intenet in north korea. =p

China has a vested interest in not wanting a war because there's a pretty good chance that any row with NK will result in a nuclear exchange which would economically destroy the asia pacific, not to mention the fallout cloud of a groundburst nuclear weapon would drift over the country.
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Post by Sparck »

I was reading up on the estimated size of North Korea's military and it is quite formidable to say the least. There are approximately 8,000 pieces of artillery trained on Seoul. With that kind of firepower, you wouldn't need to use a nuke....Seoul would be devastated in a matter of minutes if any type of conflict broke out and there would be nothing the U.S. could do to stop it. NK has around 500 combat aircraft and a highly sophisticated air defense network the likes of which the U.S. has never dealt with before. This is not a country the U.S. could just fly over and bomb repeatedly at will.

NK is starting up nuclear reactors that they say is to provide much needed power, but what if it's more than that? It is already believed that NK has at least one or two nuclear devices. Do you give them what they want and believe them if they tell you they won't continue any kind of nuclear weapons program? The U.S. is beefing up it's military in the region as a deterrent to NK in case they have any plans to attack Seoul. NK sees this as an act of aggression by the U.S. and possibly a preemptive strike. How much longer can the U.S. continue to move forces around the region before NK decides they've had enough and strike first?

This is one of those situations where I'm scared to even think of what could happen. I've always feared that I will live to see some type of nuclear exchange in my lifetime and this could very easily be it unless something is done to resolve the crisis. I'm not going to offer an opinion of what that might be..... because frankly, I have no clue on what can be done about it. Scary stuff indeed.
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Post by Brotha »

kyoukan type-R wrote:China has a vested interest in not wanting a war because there's a pretty good chance that any row with NK will result in a nuclear exchange which would economically destroy the asia pacific, not to mention the fallout cloud of a groundburst nuclear weapon would drift over the country.
China's biggest fear is once the war is over, hundreds of thousands of refugees will be pouring through their borders. China actually supported the IAEA bringing the matter to the security council...as long as we work through the council, I don't see China being a problem.
no. the Great Leader is wildly popular in the DPRK due to basically non-stop propaganda and blackouts on all other forms of media other than state-run.
You'd be suprised. Many people in N. Korea live in constant fear, there's an elaborate system to smuggle people out, and thousands of people are starving to death everyday. While some might really be brainwashed, I don't think the people in N. Korea are stupid.
millie wrote: What a perfect fucking time for Bush to be wasting resources and human lives on his cowboy oil war in Iraq!
What do you suggest we do about N. Korea at the present time Millie?

EDIT: Yeah, as one of the above posters said, N. Korea has the firepower to completely level Seoul in about 3 hours (not using nukes). I really admire our soldiers stationed in S. Korea. There's only 37,500 of them, they KNOW if N. Korea decides to invade S. Korea their sole job is to slow them down and they'd be slaughtered in a matter of minutes.
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Post by Kelshara »

I don't really see why they should be admired more than any other soldier, they were given orders to be there and I am pretty sure they wouldn't be if given a choice. And some countries lived with that hanging over their heads all through the Cold War. European countries bordering to former Soviet Union had one job for their military: Slow the Russians long enough for NATO to get their warmachine rolling. Which would equal suicide.
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Post by miir »

thousands of people are starving to death everyday
I love how you squeeze bullshit little factoids like that out of your ass.
Thousands implies more than 2000.
That means a minimum of 730000 North Koreans are dying every year, according to you.
With a population of roughly 21 million, we could probably just wait until they all starve to death....


There's only 37,500 of them, they KNOW if N. Korea decides to invade S. Korea their sole job is to slow them down and they'd be slaughtered in a matter of minutes.

According to the CIA, North Korea maintains and active military of over 1 million.
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Post by Voronwë »

7th largest standing army on the planet.
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Post by Mort »

Those poor fucking people..... I've been reading about the prison camps and the way common people are treated there. I wish to God there was a way to fix this. He's a psychopath.
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Post by Krurk »

One minor concern China has in the issue is if you look at the map here

http://go.hrw.com/atlas/norm_htm/china.htm

you may notice that China is surrounded by:

Pakistan
India
Kazakhstan
Russia
North Korea

All of whom are nuclear powers.

With the North operating a program, then you have South Korea and Japan wanting to develop their own to counter it. Throw in the possibility of Taiwan developing one, or atleast patrolling US ships operating in the area in defense of Taiwan with nukes, and China finds itself surrounded by quite a few nations with nukes and several of whom don't like China a whole lot.

If the North was to take the step of initiating a nuclear exchange with any country, odds are the Chinese would roll over the North before the Pentagon could cut orders to send anything there.

Sure they may annex the North after the war (hey, gotta make up for losing Taiwan) but who knows?
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Post by Vetiria »

miir wrote:
There's only 37,500 of them, they KNOW if N. Korea decides to invade S. Korea their sole job is to slow them down and they'd be slaughtered in a matter of minutes.

According to the CIA, North Korea maintains and active military of over 1 million.
I think he means that there's 37,500 US troops at the N/S Korea border, not NKorean troops.
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Post by miir »

Vetiria wrote:
miir wrote:
There's only 37,500 of them, they KNOW if N. Korea decides to invade S. Korea their sole job is to slow them down and they'd be slaughtered in a matter of minutes.

According to the CIA, North Korea maintains and active military of over 1 million.
I think he means that there's 37,500 US troops at the N/S Korea border, not NKorean troops.
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Post by Winnow »

Voronwë wrote:7th largest standing army on the planet.
Well...most of our troops are sitting down in planes, tanks and hummers! :P
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Post by masteen »

While I'm sure the N. Korean air force is better than the Iraqi one (i.e. it actually exists), we would still have air superority. You cannot hit what you cannot see. The problem would come in the land war.

Basically, I think we should send in a black ops team to whack him and his cronies, and save ourselves the trouble.
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Post by Millie »

Brotha wrote:What do you suggest we do about N. Korea at the present time Millie?
Howabout not starting a pointless oil war in Iraq when we have a much bigger problem on our hands with Kim Jong Il? It's just the sort of common sense that Bush lacks by the gallon.

I'm no military strategist or diplomat (none of us is), so I don't pretend to have an 'expert' opinion on how to handle the Korean crisis. But I do know that Bush is making quite a few mistakes. If his tactical errors are apparent even to the common public, something is wrong.

The real problem with a potential conflict in Korea is that it would likely go nuclear. A conventional air and land battle could drag on for 5+ years -- resulting in a stalemate at best, or at worst, a loss of hundreds of thousands of U.S. lives. By that time, it's likely that a cornered Kim would launch one of his nuclear missiles at a strategic target, forcing a nuclear retaliation on our part. Either that, or we'd strike first. Regardless, the prospect of total nuclear war doesn't sound all too appealing.
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Post by Winnow »

Millie wrote:
Brotha wrote:What do you suggest we do about N. Korea at the present time Millie?
Howabout not starting a pointless oil war in Iraq when we have a much bigger problem on our hands with Kim Jong Il? It's just the sort of common sense that Bush lacks by the gallon.

I'm no military strategist or diplomat (none of us is), so I don't pretend to have an 'expert' opinion on how to handle the Korean crisis. But I do know that Bush is making quite a few mistakes. If his tactical errors are apparent even to the common public, something is wrong.

The real problem with a potential conflict in Korea is that it would likely go nuclear. A conventional air and land battle could drag on for 5+ years -- resulting in a stalemate at best, or at worst, a loss of hundreds of thousands of U.S. lives. By that time, it's likely that a cornered Kim would launch one of his nuclear missiles at a strategic target, forcing a nuclear retaliation on our part. Either that, or we'd strike first. Regardless, the prospect of total nuclear war doesn't sound all too appealing.
You didn't answer the question millie. All you did was tell us the problems that everyone already knows and slammed Bush again with nothing substantial. "quite a few mistakes" lame.

An example of answering the question would be:

Millie D'Google: I say we take off and nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
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Post by Fallanthas »

Millie,


The reason we have a problem with North Korea is BECAUSE we are focussing on Iraq.


The timing is not coincidence. North Korea is angling for more aid money. They see us as distracted at the moment. Not that they are wrong.
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Post by Voronwë »

i dont see the two as related beyond the fact that it is a time that MAYBE North Korea perceives as an advantageous time to negotiate from strength.

but even without Iraq we dont want to get into a military conflict with NK. Before we can do too much, NK can really put a beating on Seoul as well as our troop positions there. Sure we'd end up winning, but it would not be pretty.
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Post by Forthe »

Voronwë wrote:i dont see the two as related beyond the fact that it is a time that MAYBE North Korea perceives as an advantageous time to negotiate from strength.

but even without Iraq we dont want to get into a military conflict with NK. Before we can do too much, NK can really put a beating on Seoul as well as our troop positions there. Sure we'd end up winning, but it would not be pretty.
A bit optimistic there. The US beating NK alone is not a foregone conclusion. The plans for the Korean War called for a 6 week campaign. Learn from history.
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Post by kyoukan »

Brotha wrote:[I really admire our soldiers stationed in S. Korea. There's only 37,500 of them, they KNOW if N. Korea decides to invade S. Korea their sole job is to slow them down and they'd be slaughtered in a matter of minutes.
That and over 2 million landmines in the DMZ.

Korea's demilitarized zone is the reason the US wouldn't sign the international ban on landmines last year. The mines are the only thing keeping the North out of the South.

Though before all this started there were a lot of talks about re-unification.
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Post by Voronwë »

Forthe wrote:
Voronwë wrote:i dont see the two as related beyond the fact that it is a time that MAYBE North Korea perceives as an advantageous time to negotiate from strength.

but even without Iraq we dont want to get into a military conflict with NK. Before we can do too much, NK can really put a beating on Seoul as well as our troop positions there. Sure we'd end up winning, but it would not be pretty.
A bit optimistic there. The US beating NK alone is not a foregone conclusion. The plans for the Korean War called for a 6 week campaign. Learn from history.
Korea was not isolated in the 50s.

it would not be supplied by China if it were to attack one of its neighbors (the only reason we would go to a military conflict with them).

Additionally, the technological gap between our weapon systems and theres is much more substantial than it was in the 1950s.
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Post by kyoukan »

I don't think the US could defeat NK militarily simply because the American people wouldn't allow that type of loss again after Viet Nam.

There are a couple of essays that everyone who's interested in North Korea should read. I highly suggest giving them a good read when you have some free time. They're both fairly long.

http://www.geocities.com/dprk02/day1.htm

http://ncafe.com/northkorea/SunOkLeeTes ... w_llus.pdf (need acrobat reader)

http://www.simonbone.com/myohyang.html (this one seems temporarily down but its the best of the bunch)
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Post by Voronwë »

i agree with your premise Kyoukan, except i would include one caveat:

if NK were to launch a nuclear attack (or massive conventional attack) on one of the countries in that region, the public here would support military action, even with substantial losses.

if we were to take the same approach that we are taking with Iraq, which i guess is "proactive self-defense", then yes you are right, there is no way we would have the public support for it.

but if Kyoto got vaporized, and knowing they are not far from being able to do the same to Los Angeles, the support would be there.

You don't have to do a bunch of PR song and dance to convince people that there is a clear and present danger from the DPRK that warrents military action.

it would be self-evident.

plus you already got that hard core group of Americans (~20% or so) who would go to war with any non-white country for no good reason as it is :p
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Post by Winnow »

kyoukan type-R wrote:I don't think the US could defeat NK militarily simply because the American people wouldn't allow that type of loss again after Viet Nam.

There are a couple of essays that everyone who's interested in North Korea should read. I highly suggest giving them a good read when you have some free time. They're both fairly long.

http://www.geocities.com/dprk02/day1.htm

http://ncafe.com/northkorea/SunOkLeeTes ... w_llus.pdf (need acrobat reader)

http://www.simonbone.com/myohyang.html (this one seems temporarily down but its the best of the bunch)
From the geocities link:

Image

What a monster hotel. No windows and never completed. That would look swell in Las Vegas. What a waste in N Korea.
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Post by kyoukan »

It was supposed to be a symbol of the power of communism. I think it is, ironically.
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Post by Metanis »

kyoukan type-R wrote:Bush is avoiding Korea because any military action against them would be political suicide. Any president that gets back into it with the North Koreans are going to be into it with another 10 year long war against a well trained, well entrenched and extremely patriotic army that will cost America 10's or even 100's of thousands of lives. Not to mention artillery within striking distance of Seoul and missile capabilities able to hit basically any asian country.

You can't treat North Korea like you treat some middle eastern rat hole country. They are perfectly content with sitting behind the DMZ and building missiles that will hit anything, an aggresor army would have to step to them on their terms. They have anti-air capabilities far beyond anything the US has tried themselves against in real combat as well as a reasonably modern air force of Soviet made aircraft.

Any president that tangles it up with North Korea had better do it on his second term with the knowledge that whoever comes after him won't be in the same political party.

So Bush can't tangle with them, and he can't negotiate with them given his current position without looking like a back pedaller (well even more of a back pedaller).

Currently North Korea is unable to continue to exist in it's present state. They need to either threaten/fight with their neighbors to get what they want, or they need to overhaul their political system and start cooperating with their neighbors. I don't see them overhauling their current government even if they wanted to. Any form of uprising or revolution in DPRK would have to have total support of everyone and would still cost millions of lives.

But Iraq has sweet, sweet oil.
Some of this may even be true. What would YOU advise be done about this situation?
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Post by Lalanae »

Re: the starving people thing. Just a little note off CNN:
July 1994: Kim Il Sung dies and is replaced by his son, Kim Jong Il. Conditions in the North continue to decline, with an estimated 2 million starving to death in the 1990s.
Thats about 500-550 a day. No clue where they got their estimation from though.
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Post by miir »

Thats about 500-550 a day. No clue where they got their estimation from though
Humanitarian relief organizations.
It's probably safe to assume the actual number is less.


According to Brotha, 1/3 of North Koreas popultaion would have died from starvation in the 90s.
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Post by kyoukan »

Metanis wrote:Some of this may even be true. What would YOU advise be done about this situation?
what the fuck does that have to do with anything I posted? are you stupid?

don't answer that.
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Post by kyoukan »

Lalanae wrote:Re: the starving people thing. Just a little note off CNN:
July 1994: Kim Il Sung dies and is replaced by his son, Kim Jong Il. Conditions in the North continue to decline, with an estimated 2 million starving to death in the 1990s.
Thats about 500-550 a day. No clue where they got their estimation from though.
The two aren't really related. It's true that North Korea has had a disasterous food shortage, but it's not really communism's fault. They've just had bad draughts and underproducing rice crops as a result of it.

The major difference being that if DPRK's government weren't such a bunch of cunts, they'd probably have received more aid.
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Post by Metanis »

kyoukan type-R wrote:
Metanis wrote:Some of this may even be true. What would YOU advise be done about this situation?
what the fuck does that have to do with anything I posted? are you stupid?

don't answer that.
I was merely curious if you ever posted anything constructive.
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