1st Amendment

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Kilmoll the Sexy
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1st Amendment

Post by Kilmoll the Sexy »

I know you libtards don't actually care about the Constitution and all that, but what in the 1st Amendment actually allows media to print bold faced lies and present them across the board as factual information? We have a President and his cabinet and advisors spouting the same lies and attempting to make policies using this information.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first10 ... ed-mexico/
PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad and Tobago -- What's the difference between "recovered" and "traceable" when it comes to firearms seized in Mexico's bloody war against drug cartels?

The White House says none.

But that's a distinction with a difference, even if President Obama used the words interchangeably last week to talk about the role firearms smuggled from the U.S. play in Mexico's stepped up fight against entrenched, well-armed drug cartels.

"This war is being waged with guns purchased not here, but in the United States. More than 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States, many from gun shops that line our shared border," the president said on the subject in his joint press conference with Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Thursday:

To some, it might sound as if Obama is saying 90 percent of all guns captured from the cartels originated in America. But that's not what the president means, senior National Security Council Spokesman Denis McDonough told FOX News on Saturday.

"By recovered he means traceable, guns traced back to the United States," McDonough said. "These are ATF (Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms) numbers. These are the guns submitted to the ATF for tracing. That's what we mean by recovered."

As FOX News has previously reported, a large percentage of firearms recovered in Mexico from the drug cartels are not submitted to U.S. officials for tracing because they lack the necessary markings.

In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Those 11,000 firearms were part of the 29,000 firearms Mexican officials recovered at crime scenes. According to the ATF, of the 11,000 submitted to U.S. officials for tracing, 6,000 could be traced somewhere because of the serial numbers or other distinctive markings. Of those 6,000 firearms, 5,114 or 90 percent, were found to have been smuggled from the U.S.

The White House stands by the president's use of the word "recovered" in describing the role firearms smuggled from the U.S. play in Mexico's drug war.

"We feel good about these numbers and that's why the president uses the word recovered," McDonough said.

Just to repeat: recovered doesn't mean the percentage of all firearms confiscated at Mexican crime scenes. It doesn't mean the subset of these firearms traceable to any source. It does mean the percentage of traceable weapons linked to a U.S. source. And, again, that total is 5,114 out of 29,000 -- or 17.6 percent -- in the years 2007 and 2008.

Every news outlet on the left side of the fence (and Obama, Pelosi, and Biden) are spouting this 90% crap as factual information and looking to sign the US into treaties with the UN and Mexico. If we sign into the UN treaties, we pretty well relinquish our rights as a free country. The fact is on the whole "mexico crisis", most of the guns they recover do not get sent for tracing because it is obvious they are not coming from the US. The drug cartels are buying military weapons, including grenades and other military items, from all points south. All that is going on now is they are using this as an excuse to run an amnesty program through on us for illegal immigrants and sign treaties to bypass our congressional votes on laws regarding firearms.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/electio ... r-claimed/
You've heard this shocking "fact" before -- on TV and radio, in newspapers, on the Internet and from the highest politicians in the land: 90 percent of the weapons used to commit crimes in Mexico come from the United States.

-- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it to reporters on a flight to Mexico City.

-- CBS newsman Bob Schieffer referred to it while interviewing President Obama.

-- California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said at a Senate hearing: "It is unacceptable to have 90 percent of the guns that are picked up in Mexico and used to shoot judges, police officers and mayors ... come from the United States."

-- William Hoover, assistant director for field operations at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, testified in the House of Representatives that "there is more than enough evidence to indicate that over 90 percent of the firearms that have either been recovered in, or interdicted in transport to Mexico, originated from various sources within the United States."

There's just one problem with the 90 percent "statistic" and it's a big one:

It's just not true.

In fact, it's not even close. The fact is, only 17 percent of guns found at Mexican crime scenes have been traced to the U.S.

What's true, an ATF spokeswoman told FOXNews.com, in a clarification of the statistic used by her own agency's assistant director, "is that over 90 percent of the traced firearms originate from the U.S."

But a large percentage of the guns recovered in Mexico do not get sent back to the U.S. for tracing, because it is obvious from their markings that they do not come from the U.S.

"Not every weapon seized in Mexico has a serial number on it that would make it traceable, and the U.S. effort to trace weapons really only extends to weapons that have been in the U.S. market," Matt Allen, special agent of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), told FOX News.

Video:Click here to watch more.

A Look at the Numbers

In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced -- and of those, 90 percent -- 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover -- were found to have come from the U.S.

But in those same two years, according to the Mexican government, 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes.

In other words, 68 percent of the guns that were recovered were never submitted for tracing. And when you weed out the roughly 6,000 guns that could not be traced from the remaining 32 percent, it means 83 percent of the guns found at crime scenes in Mexico could not be traced to the U.S.

So, if not from the U.S., where do they come from? There are a variety of sources:

-- The Black Market. Mexico is a virtual arms bazaar, with fragmentation grenades from South Korea, AK-47s from China, and shoulder-fired rocket launchers from Spain, Israel and former Soviet bloc manufacturers.

-- Russian crime organizations. Interpol says Russian Mafia groups such as Poldolskaya and Moscow-based Solntsevskaya are actively trafficking drugs and arms in Mexico.

- South America. During the late 1990s, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) established a clandestine arms smuggling and drug trafficking partnership with the Tijuana cartel, according to the Federal Research Division report from the Library of Congress.

-- Asia. According to a 2006 Amnesty International Report, China has provided arms to countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Chinese assault weapons and Korean explosives have been recovered in Mexico.

-- The Mexican Army. More than 150,000 soldiers deserted in the last six years, according to Mexican Congressman Robert Badillo. Many took their weapons with them, including the standard issue M-16 assault rifle made in Belgium.

-- Guatemala. U.S. intelligence agencies say traffickers move immigrants, stolen cars, guns and drugs, including most of America's cocaine, along the porous Mexican-Guatemalan border. On March 27, La Hora, a Guatemalan newspaper, reported that police seized 500 grenades and a load of AK-47s on the border. Police say the cache was transported by a Mexican drug cartel operating out of Ixcan, a border town.

'These Don't Come From El Paso'

Ed Head, a firearms instructor in Arizona who spent 24 years with the U.S. Border Patrol, recently displayed an array of weapons considered "assault rifles" that are similar to those recovered in Mexico, but are unavailable for sale in the U.S.

"These kinds of guns -- the auto versions of these guns -- they are not coming from El Paso," he said. "They are coming from other sources. They are brought in from Guatemala. They are brought in from places like China. They are being diverted from the military. But you don't get these guns from the U.S."

Some guns, he said, "are legitimately shipped to the government of Mexico, by Colt, for example, in the United States. They are approved by the U.S. government for use by the Mexican military service. The guns end up in Mexico that way -- the fully auto versions -- they are not smuggled in across the river."

Many of the fully automatic weapons that have been seized in Mexico cannot be found in the U.S., but they are not uncommon in the Third World.

The Mexican government said it has seized 2,239 grenades in the last two years -- but those grenades and the rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) are unavailable in U.S. gun shops. The ones used in an attack on the U.S. Consulate in Monterrey in October and a TV station in January were made in South Korea. Almost 70 similar grenades were seized in February in the bottom of a truck entering Mexico from Guatemala.

"Most of these weapons are being smuggled from Central American countries or by sea, eluding U.S. and Mexican monitors who are focused on the smuggling of semi-automatic and conventional weapons purchased from dealers in the U.S. border states of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California," according to a report in the Los Angeles Times.

Boatloads of Weapons

So why would the Mexican drug cartels, which last year grossed between $17 billion and $38 billion, bother buying single-shot rifles, and force thousands of unknown "straw" buyers in the U.S. through a government background check, when they can buy boatloads of fully automatic M-16s and assault rifles from China, Israel or South Africa?

Alberto Islas, a security consultant who advises the Mexican government, says the drug cartels are using the Guatemalan border to move black market weapons. Some are left over from the Central American wars the United States helped fight; others, like the grenades and launchers, are South Korean, Israeli and Spanish. Some were legally supplied to the Mexican government; others were sold by corrupt military officers or officials.

The exaggeration of United States "responsibility" for the lawlessness in Mexico extends even beyond the "90-percent" falsehood -- and some Second Amendment activists believe it's designed to promote more restrictive gun-control laws in the U.S.

In a remarkable claim, Auturo Sarukhan, the Mexican ambassador to the U.S., said Mexico seizes 2,000 guns a day from the United States -- 730,000 a year. That's a far cry from the official statistic from the Mexican attorney general's office, which says Mexico seized 29,000 weapons in all of 2007 and 2008.

Chris Cox, spokesman for the National Rifle Association, blames the media and anti-gun politicians in the U.S. for misrepresenting where Mexican weapons come from.

"Reporter after politician after news anchor just disregards the truth on this," Cox said. "The numbers are intentionally used to weaken the Second Amendment."

"The predominant source of guns in Mexico is Central and South America. You also have Russian, Chinese and Israeli guns. It's estimated that over 100,000 soldiers deserted the army to work for the drug cartels, and that ignores all the police. How many of them took their weapons with them?"

But Tom Diaz, senior policy analyst at the Violence Policy Center, called the "90 percent" issue a red herring and said that it should not detract from the effort to stop gun trafficking into Mexico.

"Let's do what we can with what we know," he said. "We know that one hell of a lot of firearms come from the United States because our gun market is wide open."
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Xatrei »

I heard an interesting discussion about this on NPR the other day (it cited a story for which I'll try to find a link and add it to this post). It did a little digging into the numbers put forward by both sides of this argument. While the truth is that the 90% number being tossed around is not entirely accurate, the numbers being used by the gun nuts are as flawed, if not moreso. The person being interviewed concluded that the real number is definitely not 90%, but that number is closer to the truth than the numbers put forward by the Fox Misinformation Network, and held up by gun nuts as "evidence" of a manufactured crisis.


EDIT:
The NPR story I mentioned: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... =103224899

And the politifact.com article referenced: http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter/art ... ns-mexico/
Sorting out the truth about guns in Mexico

By David Adams, Robert Farley
Published on Thursday, April 16th, 2009 at 6:56 p.m.

With growing violence on the U.S.-Mexico border fueled by powerful drug cartels, officials from both countries have been repeating a shocking statistic to suggest this isn't just a Mexican problem.

"This war is being waged with guns purchased not here but in the United States . . . more than 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States, many from gun shops that lay in our shared border," President Barack Obama said on a visit to Mexico on April 16, 2009. "So we have responsibilities as well."

Obama joins many other U.S. and Mexican officials -- from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the Mexican Ambassador to the U.S. -- who have cited versions of the 90 percent figure in arguing for greater U.S. intervention. For his part, Obama has pledged to commit more money and resources to stem the flow of guns south of the border.

But Obama, Clinton and others have left out important qualifiers when citing the 90 percent statistic, which originates from the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. The agency doesn't have statistics for all weapons in Mexico, where gun sales are largely prohibited; it is based on only guns that the Mexican government sent to the ATF for tracing and that the ATF found were traceable.

Along those lines, the number was cited correctly by William Newell, an ATF Special Agent who oversees the bureau's operations along border in Arizona and New Mexico, when he testified before a House subcommittee on March 24.

"In fact, 90 percent of the firearms recovered in Mexico, and which are then successfully traced, were determined to have originated from various sources within the continental U.S."

Gun rights groups say the number has been widely and intentionally distorted to advance a gun control agenda.

And on April 2, 2009, Fox News ran a story on its Web site dismissing the statistic as a "myth." The article cites statistics from the Mexican government that suggest only about a third of the guns recovered at crime scenes in Mexico are submitted to the ATF for tracing; and it notes that many guns submitted to ATF cannot be traced. Therefore, the writers conclude, only 17 percent of guns found at Mexican crime scenes have been traced to the U.S.

According to the article, "a large percentage of the guns recovered in Mexico do not get sent back to the U.S. for tracing, because it is obvious from their markings that they do not come from the U.S." The article goes on to say many weapons are coming from a wide variety of foreign sources including China, South Korea, Spain and Israel, as well as from the Russian Mafia and other nefarious sources in Asia, South and Central America.

"Reporter after politician after news anchor just disregards the truth on this," National Rifle Association spokesman Chris Cox told Fox News. "The numbers are intentionally used to weaken the Second Amendment."

ATF officials challenge the suggestion that Mexico only sends them guns they suspect are from the United States. In fact, the ATF found about a quarter of the 90 percent were made in other countries and then taken illegally from the U.S. into Mexico.

So what does that mean about the accuracy of Obama's claim? Are the guns submitted to ATF a representative sample of all guns confiscated by Mexican authorities?

In an interview on CBS' Face the Nation on April 12, 2009, Arturo Sarukhan, the Mexican Ambassador to the U.S., stood behind the 90 percent figure.

"Ninety percent of all weapons we are seizing in Mexico...are coming from across the United States," Sarukhan said. "Just on the Arizona and Texas borders with Mexico alone there are approximately 7,000 (gun shops). And a lot of the weapons that are being bought by the drug syndicates, either directly or through proxy purchases are coming from those gun shops."

Alberto Islas, a security consultant with Risk Evaluation in Mexico City, said the 90 percent figure is based on an incomplete sample. Mexican officials only require ATF traces of guns used in "high impact crimes," he said. That certainly includes crimes involving violent drug cartels. That's the sample from which the ATF derives its 90 percent statistic. Driving up that percentage, Islas said, is the fact that nearly all of the handguns traced by ATF come from the U.S., Islas said, while assault weapons are more of a mixed bag - some come from the U.S., but others come through drug routes in Eastern Europe, Africa and elsewhere.

When looking at all the weapons used in violent crimes in Mexico, Islas said the figure of 90 percent coming from the U.S. may be a bit on the high side, but he said the real number is certainly a lot higher than the 17 percent cited by Fox.

We think the ATF number, presented in its proper context, provides legitimate and useful information to weigh when considering U.S. policy. We find the implication that the number could be as low as 17 percent is unrealistic because it assumes that every gun that has not been traced comes from somewhere other than the U.S. That's faulty logic.

But we think Obama also mischaracterizes the statistic some when he says 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States. Not every gun recovered in Mexico is submitted to the ATF for tracing. And so Obama, and others can't know exactly what percentage come from the U.S. They can only speak to the guns successfully traced by the ATF. And so we rule Obama's statement Half True.
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Fairweather Pure »

Xatrei, if your information is not from Fox, Hannity, Rush, or Glenn Beck than it is just left wing, liberal, drive by media misinformation.
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Kilmoll the Sexy »

Oh you mean that I should believe a liberal report stating no facts whatsoever like what Xarei just posted, or one with actual statistics put forth by the guy with the ATF that testified to Congress about those numbers?
In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced -- and of those, 90 percent -- 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover -- were found to have come from the U.S.
But in those same two years, according to the Mexican government, 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes.
Hmmmm.....so they did not need to trace those 18,000 other firearms. That means they did not even feel a need to trace over 60% of those guns or they would have to establish links back to the US. It is absolutely no use to trace an automatic weapon back here because they never would be able to buy one legally here. It is MUCH easier to buy them there or from points south.
Many of the fully automatic weapons that have been seized in Mexico cannot be found in the U.S., but they are not uncommon in the Third World.
Of course this is what the "gun nuts" keep tellign people who refuse to listen. I would be able to buy a full automatic weapon easier in any 3rd world country than in the US.
The Mexican government said it has seized 2,239 grenades in the last two years -- but those grenades and the rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) are unavailable in U.S. gun shops.
I am calling for a federal ban on concealed hand grenades in the US right now!
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Sylvus »

You seem to be focusing on your 17.6% number as being the maximum for the % of guns that come from the US, when it's actually the minimum. 17.6% have been positively identified as coming from the United States, and I'm sure you'd have to agree that there are some number of unidentified guns that did come from the US, right?

So let's just, for the sake of discussion, say that 17.6% is too low a number and 90% is too high a number. At what point is it a problem?

Kilmoll the Sexy wrote:I am calling for a federal ban on concealed hand grenades in the US right now!
Ok.
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Re: 1st Amendment

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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Xatrei »

Sylvus wrote:You seem to be focusing on your 17.6% number as being the maximum for the % of guns that come from the US, when it's actually the minimum. 17.6% have been positively identified as coming from the United States, and I'm sure you'd have to agree that there are some number of unidentified guns that did come from the US, right?

So let's just, for the sake of discussion, say that 17.6% is too low a number and 90% is too high a number. At what point is it a problem?
I was going to make a point along these lines and comment on the fact that the confiscated weapons sent to the ATF for tracing appears to be a reasonable, representative sample. Then I took a minute to reread Kilmoll's post and decided that any attempt to go further down this path was futile. Kudos for trying, though.
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Zaelath »

Kilmoll the Sexy wrote:Oh you mean that I should believe a liberal report stating no facts whatsoever like what Xarei just posted, or one with actual statistics put forth by the guy with the ATF that testified to Congress about those numbers?
The phrase "actual statistics" is why you should never be allowed to argue with the adults.
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Drasta »

isn't like the first rule of statistics is that you can manipulate them to say whatever you want?
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Aardor »

Drasta wrote:isn't like the first rule of statistics is that you can manipulate them to say whatever you want?
No.
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Zaelath »

Drasta wrote:isn't like the first rule of statistics is that you can manipulate them to say whatever you want?
Not quite, but you certainly have to understand the source data and how the numbers are derived to know if the "statistic" is meaningful and/or if it means what people think it means.

In this case you have a large sample size that is traceable, of that sample 90% originate in the US. It's fairly reasonable to extrapolate that the rest of the population follows the same distribution if the only difference between them is that the identifying marks have been removed, however you have to be aware that it's an extrapolation.

FOX contends that none of the untraceable guns originate in the US. Not only is this statistically unlikely, it's presented as "fact" when it's the least likely possibility (in fact it's statistcally at least as likely that 100% of the untraceable guns are from the US).

The truth as usual is somewhere between. And Kilmoll has once again proven himself to be a religious zealot on this topic.
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Drasta »

Kilmoll the Sexy wrote:I know you libtards don't actually care about the Constitution and all that, but what in the 1st Amendment actually allows media to print bold faced lies and present them across the board as factual information? We have a President and his cabinet and advisors spouting the same lies and attempting to make policies using this information.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first10 ... ed-mexico/



Just to repeat: recovered doesn't mean the percentage of all firearms confiscated at Mexican crime scenes. It doesn't mean the subset of these firearms traceable to any source. It does mean the percentage of traceable weapons linked to a U.S. source. And, again, that total is 5,114 out of 29,000 -- or 17.6 percent -- in the years 2007 and 2008.

is it just me, or is the above statistic an ecological fallacy?
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Fairweather Pure »

I can't help but think of Al Franken discussing Fox News and thier use of statistics in this Youtube classic:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCHV5hPFbs8
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Animalor »

I remember the Bush admin doing the same thing with the WMD's in Irak..

At least this one won't cause a war..
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Re: 1st Amendment

Post by Deward »

The 1st Amendment allows you to say pretty much anything you want whether it is the truth or a lie. You just can't attack individual people.

The powers that be are using the 90% number to push the Brady Bunch Anti-gun laws. The 17% number is low because it probably doesn't account for weapons that have had the serial numbers scratched off of them. The 17% is a lot closer than the 90% though. I can tell you that it is very difficult to find the types of weapons that would be in demand by these cartels. Most of these gangs are pretty heavily armed and those weapons just aren't available in the US. Most of the so-called Assault Rifles are just hunting rifles with a pistol grip or long magazine. It is almost impossible to own a fully automatic weapon in the USA let alone buy them. Even after Bush allowed the Assault Ban to expire, most gun companies didn't start producing them again. I went to two gun shows recently and I saw less than 10 Assault style guns out of the thousands on display. Most of the "gun-nuts" who own those style of rifles are not selling them. Why should they? The last ban tripled their value within a couple months. Another ban will do the same.
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