Say Goodnight Stock Market

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Winnow
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Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

We've got less than four years. Good times are fading fast.

Tomorrow is shaping up to be a very ugly day for the stock market. Dow futures -546. That's horrific. The Nikkei is crashing as I write this. Prepare for panic selling.
Miserable Monday: Biggest FTSE crash since 9/11 wipes off more than £75bn in shares
Last updated at 01:07am on 22.01.08

Turmoil: Traders at the London Stock Exchange have seen the FTSE drop sharply since the beginning of January
The stock market went into meltdown yesterday with the biggest fall in share prices since 9/11.

More than £75billion was wiped off the value of Britain's 100 biggest companies amid fears of a recession in the U.S.

It is the worst start to the year for the stock market since records began in 1936 and left the Bank of England facing acute pressure to slash interest rates.

In a disastrous day for investors, every single stock market in Europe and Asia plummeted, with falls of up to 8.5 per cent.

The FTSE 100 plunged an extraordinary 323.5 points to close at 5,578, a fall of 5.5 per cent.

Since January 2 it has lost nearly 1,000 points, or 13.6 per cent, hammering savings, pensions and other investments.

All eyes will be on Wall Street today when the Dow Jones index re-opens. It was closed yesterday for a holiday, but the futures market remained open and offered a grim portent, falling 546 points or 4.5 percent.

Should the Dow follow a similar pattern it would rank as the fourth-largest point loss ever for the New York exchange. Last night experts were forecasting a 400-point drop.

David Buik, a partner at the brokers BGC Partners, said: "The smell of fear hangs over the City. I've never seen it this bad."

The timing could hardly have been worse for Chancellor Alistair Darling, who was yesterday detailing plans to save Northern Rock by turning its £25billion Bank of England loan into bonds and selling them to investors.

The market meltdown was triggered by growing fears about the health of the global economy and particular concerns about America and China.

Analysts fear President Bush's £75billion of tax cuts unveiled on Friday, designed to help consumers rescue the economy by spending, will not be enough to prevent the world's biggest economy from slipping into recession. There were also fears that

the sub-prime loan crisis could have spread as far as China. Rumours circulated yesterday that the Bank of China could be about to write-down losses of more than £1billion linked to the subprime debacle in the U.S.

Martin Slaney, of traders GFT Global Markets, said: "A gloomy concoction of poor economic and corporate news plus a growing acceptance that the sub-prime fallout has much further to go has created the highly distressed conditions for a global sell-off in equities."

There was further gloom with a triple whammy of poor public sector finance figures, a collapse in mortgage lending and another investment giant imposing a long delay releasing investors' money.

Conservative Treasury spokesman Philip Hammond said: "Psychologists say this is Blue Monday, the most depressing day of the year. It certainly is for Alistair Darling.

"But it will be hard-pressed families who will have to pick up the pieces through yet more stealth taxes."

The fall is seen as indicative of the difficulties facing thousands of aspiring homebuyers struggling to find a mortgage they can afford. Research from the website Money-Expert.com shows more than 460,000 people have missed at least one mortgage repayment over the last six months.

Another savings giant yesterday shut the door to investors seeking to take out money.

Around 200,000 clients of Scottish Widows's £2billion property funds will be forced to wait six months to withdraw their cash.

It is the second firm in a week to hit the panic button over the high number of investors rushing to bale out.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

Check the real time ticker of the Asian markets:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

holy crap

Dow is set for a 5% drop tomorrow at the opening. Micro caps will get slaughtered.

Europe:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Aslanna »

Seriously... Retirement isn't looking that good. They say you have to be in for the long haul but after finally making back most of the losses from 2000-2003, and actually even making a bit of profit, it tanks again. So basically in 8 years I've made nothing. I don't see how my retirement funds could grow to a healthy level in 20-30 years.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

I made 7.6% on my 401k over 2007, but only .05% in the final quarter. Doesn't sound like a good start to 2008 :(
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

Well, we're in from some shitty times for the next couple years minimum. Probably not great depression bad, but 1970's bad.

I really don't see much good and I'm usually an optimist. I'd say worrying less about retiring and more about hoping you have a secure job for the next couple years would be more important in the short term.

I was pretty young in the late 70's but still remember those damn gas lines and the even/odd ending license plate # days where you could only buy gas every other day.

It won't happen in one day but if the Dow has the biggest drop since 911 tomorrow, we're on our way.

Check the Dow over the past five days...and now it's going to drop 500+ more points?

Image

Could be heading down to 11,000 soon. A year's gains have already been wiped out.

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edit:

clip from Fortune Magazine article:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/18/news/ec ... 2008012107
Meltzer, who is finishing the second volume of his history of the Federal Reserve, warns that Bernanke is risking a disastrous replay of the 1970s, when high oil prices fueled double-digit inflation. Every time the Fed started to tighten and unemployment jumped, chairmen G. William Miller and Arthur Burns lost their nerve. They lowered rates to boost job growth, and inflation inevitably revived, causing a vicious price spiral. The Fed let the disease rage for so long that it took draconian action by chairman Paul Volcker in the early 1980s to finally defeat inflation. The price was a deep recession, with unemployment hitting 11% in 1982. "The mentality is the same as in the 1970s," says Meltzer. "'As soon as we get rid of the risk of recession, we'll do something about inflation.' But that comes too late."

Indeed, while the economy is sending mixed messages about growth, the signs of increasing inflation are flashing bright red. For 2007 the consumer price index rose 4.1%, the biggest annual increase in 17 years. Gold, historically a reliable harbinger of inflation, set an all-time high of more than $900 an ounce. The dollar is languishing at a record low against the euro and a weighted basket of international currencies. "Flooding the market with liquidity is a disaster for the purchasing power of the dollar," says David Gitlitz, chief economist for Trend Macrolytics.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Fairweather Pure »

Don't worry too much about it Winnow. When Hillary is elected, she'll fix everything for you.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Aabidano »

the sub-prime loan crisis could have spread as far as China. Rumours circulated yesterday that the Bank of China could be about to write-down losses of more than £1billion...
That number will grow and then everything will suddenly get better.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Aslanna »

It's not looking too bad at the moment. Big drop when it opened but it's been coming back since then. Only down 92 points presently. Would be nice if it could maintain that momentum through the day! But sadly I'm not holding out much chance of that happening.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by masteen »

The American market is a fucking cesspool. The focus on quarterly results has and will continue to fuck companies.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Boogahz »

yeah, it is too early to say anything will, or will not, happen for sure, but my employer's stock dropped around 2% when the market opened, but it is currently up almost 3%.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

the .75 % emergency rate cut (largest in 24 years) saved the market from monster losses but that kind of cut usually results in big time buying and move up. So far, it's just cut the losses for the day somewhat.

The panic selling may be over at least.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Asheran Mojomaster »

Holy shit I was scared for a minute there. My trust fund is the only thing that pays for my school and 85% of my money is in stocks. I even called them today to try to find out what they were doing to try to protect it but their phones were ringing off the hook and my rep still hasn't called me back. I know we aren't out of the woods yet, but I'm just glad things are settling down.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

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Panic... its setting in, and that is what kills the market. Relax folks. Its the only way to fix it. Last thing you want to do is sell. Right now you want to buy, for 2 reasons. A) buying is what makes the numbers go UP and 2) with the prices down, stocks are cheaper to buy. You only loose money when you sell your stocks at a loss.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

Noysyrump wrote:Panic... its setting in, and that is what kills the market. Relax folks. Its the only way to fix it. Last thing you want to do is sell. Right now you want to buy, for 2 reasons. A) buying is what makes the numbers go UP and 2) with the prices down, stocks are cheaper to buy. You only loose money when you sell your stocks at a loss.

Good advice except for the people that are/were buying on margin. Those people have been forced to sell.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Funkmasterr »

Noysyrump wrote:Panic... its setting in, and that is what kills the market. Relax folks. Its the only way to fix it. Last thing you want to do is sell. Right now you want to buy, for 2 reasons. A) buying is what makes the numbers go UP and 2) with the prices down, stocks are cheaper to buy. You only loose money when you sell your stocks at a loss.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Asheran Mojomaster »

Haha, I'm glad I don't have access to my stocks because I probably would have freaked. Thats why I have a trust fund to take care of that I guess. I don't really have any say about how they invest my money at all.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

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Honestly this little hickup isnt anything to get all bent for... the dow went up to what 12800 at its peak? Now its like 11980? what is that a .6% drop in total? (my math skeelz are still in bed.) Hardly the end of the world.

Now if it drops to 5000, then I'd be worried right there with ya.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Noysyrump wrote:Honestly this little hickup isnt anything to get all bent for... the dow went up to what 12800 at its peak? Now its like 11980? what is that a .6% drop in total? (my math skeelz are still in bed.) Hardly the end of the world.

Now if it drops to 5000, then I'd be worried right there with ya.
Agreed. A recession is often self-induced by bad press and forced fear.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

My company's (MER, NYSE) stock is up 3.21 today. Of course, it is down about 35.00 from last year at this time. GJ buying first Franklin you asshat Stan O'Neil!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

LEN (Lennar) 13.08 +0.09 +0.69%

52 Week High 56.54

OUCH! Scary times being in the new home/mortgage business.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

Absolutely Mid, it is brutal. People are hesitant to buy, afraid to take a loss on a sale. Rent has shot up due to this as well.

Also, many home builders are stranded with millions of dollars worth of declining-value homes. Tough times.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Nods. It's been said over half of us mortgage guys and gals that were in business when 2007 started are now out of business. I'm lucky to still be kickin', but I've been applying for jobs left and right for the past month now. Time to move on to something else me thinks.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

Smart move....

I am not too worried. My client where I am officed is a subprime servicer and has seen hardly any layoffs. Still have to service the mortgages, eh? The big hits are in origination.

I think worst-case scenario for me would be getting shipped off to Jax. However, I am the only DBA on the west coast for ML, so I am good for now (so they tell me), heh.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

I'm not hoping for doom and gloom here believe me.

One of my stocks is up! 5% today. ...one!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

That awesome MVIS stock is 50% less then what I bought it at, grrrr.
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Rofl at midnyte's "Clinton has a dream!" avatar... lol
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:That awesome MVIS stock is 50% less then what I bought it at, grrrr.

That's not the one! MVIS is a horror story atm. I watched it open down 20% and then dip under $2.00 before bouncing back to 2.40 but real time, it's at 2.23 right now.

Something fishy is going on, the official word from management is that there's unusually high short activity on the stock. I'm keeping all I own and expect MVIS to deliver their stand alone projector as promised but as for the stock, it's been free falling without any publicly known reason, and much worse than the down market in general.

I'm over being pissed. That happened when it dived to 2.50 the same day I bought more at 3.20 and I'm riding it for a substantial loss overall atm.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Toshira »

THE END IS FUCKING NIGH!

Sigh @ Winnow. Doomsaying is so gauche.

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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

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May not be the end but there have been some shitty times that last awhile.

Who's up for dropping the Dow about 10,000 points to ~ 1,200? It's not the end. No biggie! It would just reset us back to around 1980. Yay!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

Ouch! Where's the Apple love this morning?

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It's a little off that recent 202 high!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

Market's taking a beating again today but AAPL's really getting hammered.

down 17+% ~129.00 today

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=5d

I'm sure it will bounce back but that's nasty for a company with the market cap and products Apple has.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

MOT (Motorola) is down 22% so Apple has some company.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MOT&t=5d

That .75 rate cut did zero to stop things so far which is surprising...the only market "boost' it gave was slowing the loss (only -124) for one day.

The Asian markets must feel foolish after rallying yesterday!
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Post by Canelek »

MER just shot up 3.60 in the closing hour today. I left for lunch and it was down .15....much activity! I noticed that DJIA had a big late upsurge today as well. It has been so up and down lately though!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

Canelek wrote:MER just shot up 3.60 in the closing hour today. I left for lunch and it was down .15....much activity! I noticed that DJIA had a big late upsurge today as well. It has been so up and down lately though!
Yeah, late day rally

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=1d

The headlines claim short covering is the reason. If so, that's a good sign that downward pressure might let up for awhile. MOT and AAPL still finished way down, but I see a lot of green otherwise.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

I only deduct 1% bi-weekly from my paycheck to MER stock at a relatively low discount, but I keep an eye on it nonetheless. Bonuses this year sucked due to the First Franklin debacle and Stan ONeil trying to merge with Wachovia. I figure if we rebound as a whole, that would work nicely with my possible VP promotion next year. ;)

TBH though, I was happy to get any bonus... used to get a 12lb frozen turkey for an annual bonus when I lived in LA. :D

Go go DJIA!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Aardor »

So WTF? The past two days have been AM articles about how the stock market is dieing and we are going into a recession, and then PM articles say the market recovered (and gained today!). I am rather ignorant of the stock market, but it seems like it is all speculation, and it's one big prisoners dilemma with regards to selling right now.

Also, is it an accepted fact that it's terrible if the market doesn't continue to go up (so flat line or go down)?
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

Well, if it was easy to predict.... :D
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Aardor »

Canelek wrote:Well, if it was easy to predict.... :D
Well, obviously, but do we need to have such panic-filled news articles for 12 hours, and then 12 hours of "It'll be fine" news articles? CNN, Yahoo, and BBC had articles about how the Fed rate was cut too late. It has been one day, and the markets went UP!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

Yeah, I was expecting at least slightly bad things as well. But it has been goofy for sure. I am no finance guy, I just happen to be in the industry so hear about this stuff all the time.

I am not sure what the Q1 forecasts look like either. I'd be a terrible day trader, that is for sure.

Panic can certainly drive the market, but closing bell rallys are not all the uncommon. It just happens that so far, the panic has been mostly unfounded, but that can change at any time.
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

I'm calling for the DJIA to close up +68.42 points tomorrow @ 12338.59 based on (censored info)

Make your predictions!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

I am guessing that the late surge will boost early confidence (as long as Nikkea isn't horribly down). +125.50 MAX, +82.00 close.

Guessing is easier when I am not investing! ;)
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Trek »

pfff you all suck at this, it will be -113



sell now!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Leonaerd »

+ 69

hur hur
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

Today at 11:30am ET (delayed )
MER 57.45 -0.60
DJIA 12304.56 34.39
S&P 500 1342.78 4.18
NASDAQ 2340.25 23.84
FTSE 100 5839.50 230.20
NIKKEI 13092.78 263.72
HSI 23539.27 -550.90
Hoping for a late surge! DJIA is way lower than my prediction. :P
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

This bounce back is killing my interest rates. I was offering a 30 day on a 30 yr fixed FHA loan at 5.125% yesterday at 2pm and by 4:30pm I was all the way up to 6%. GRRRRRR
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

Well, when your customers get behind in their payments, they can work with my clients (WCC & HLS). Gotta be tough on you though man--so much to keep up with!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

It's a job, Can.
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Canelek
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

Today at 06:05pm ET (delayed )
MER 57.45 -0.60
DJIA 12378.61 108.44
S&P 500 1352.07 13.47
NASDAQ 2360.92 44.51
FTSE 100 5875.80 266.50
NIKKEI 13092.78 263.72
HSI 23539.27 -550.90
I win!

Well, I win by Showcase Showdown logic....
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Winnow
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Winnow »

damn those late day rallies! I had it up until the last 30 mins! Grats stock market guro!
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Re: Say Goodnight Stock Market

Post by Canelek »

hehehe. Time to put my lot in for the Fantasy Market League!
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