Iowa caucus - Hickabee and Obama win

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 3, 2008, 11:27 pm

http://www.cnn.com

DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Barack Obama will win the Iowa Democratic caucus and Mike Huckabee will be the Republican winner, CNN projects.

With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had the support of 37 percent of voters, compared to 30 percent for Edwards and 30 percent for Clinton.

"The numbers tell us this was a debate between change and experience, and change won," said CNN political analyst Bill Schneider.

Edwards, in a tight race for second place, said Iowa's results show that "the status quo lost and change won."

"Now we move on ... to determine who is best suited to bring about the changes this country so desperately needed," he said.

With 78 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 34 percent of voters, compared to 25 percent for Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson had 14 percent, John McCain had 13 percent and Ron Paul had 10 percent.

Rudy Giuliani, who has turned the focus of his campaign to the February 5 "Super Tuesday" primaries, trailed with 4 percent.

"We've paid a lot of attention to states that some other candidates haven't paid a lot of attention to," Giuliani said, adding, "Time will tell what the best strategy is."

Huckabee's victory can be attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women, according to CNN analysis of entrance polls.

McCain, who had largely abandoned Iowa to focus on next week's New Hampshire primary, said, "The lessons of tonight's election in Iowa are that one, you can't buy an election in Iowa; and two, that negative campaigns don't work."

With such a close race on both sides, voter turnout was key. The Iowa Democratic Party reported seeing record turnout. The party said there were 218,000 caucus attendees with 93.5 percent of the precincts reporting.

The Iowa Democratic Party said 124,000 people participated in the 2004 caucuses, while the Republican Party of Iowa estimated that 87,000 people took part in the 2000 caucuses. (President Bush ran unchallenged for a second term in 2004.) Photo See your pictures of the candidates in Iowa »

Caucus-goer Kathy Barger, inside a Democratic caucus site in Walnut, Iowa, said the room she was in was packed to the brim with a line out the door.

"I don't know how they are going to be able to fit everybody in the room, much less count the votes," she said. "There are bodies in every available space in the room."

The White House hopefuls were campaigning down to the wire in Iowa, determined to reach as many people as possible before the 1,781 caucuses that started at 7 p.m.

Iowa Democrats, unlike Republicans, use a more complicated system to determine a candidate's viability. Republican caucus-goers are asked for their support for a candidate only one time during the event. Democrats are asked twice: an initial question of support, and a second if their first-choice candidate does not reach a 15 percent threshold to achieve viability.

The candidates might disagree on matters of policy, but in the closing week of the Iowa campaign they were working from the same script on political strategy. Some candidates rode in buses, while others took planes to cities and towns across the state in 11th-hour drives to give a final boost of adrenalin to their candidacies. See the challenges facing each candidate »

Huckabee was vastly outspent by Romney, who poured millions of dollars into a sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation. But Huckabee told supporters in Burlington during a last-minute rally that they could send "an important message" Thursday night.

"With the eyes of the world on Iowa, imagine what it's going to be like when they tune into places like Burlington, Waterloo, Des Moines, Dubuque, Sioux City, and they find out that caucus-goers here in Iowa can't be bought, that they can't even be rented, that they'll make up their own minds and they'll make it up for what they stand for," he said.

For most of 2007, Huckabee languished in the single digits in the polls and had very little success raising money. But his momentum picked up in the final six weeks of the year when social conservatives -- an important voting bloc in Iowa -- began to move his way.

Meanwhile, Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee, and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California needed strong showings in Iowa to keep their campaigns going, while Paul, a representative from Texas, is likely to ride his surge of popularity through February 5 -- "Super Tuesday," when 24 states hold their primaries -- no matter where he places in the early contests. Video Watch Thompson say personal ambition is bad »

On the Democratic side, Clinton, a New York senator, and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, were battling Obama, a senator from Illinois, for their party's nomination in a contest that has come down to two main themes: change and experience.

Clinton was working to convince Iowa caucus-goers she has the experience to enact change, while Edwards and Obama preached that she is too much of a Washington insider to bring change to the nation's capital.

With an Obama win Thursday, Clinton loses the sense of inevitability she has as the national front-runner. New Hampshire polls showing Clinton tied with Obama could grow more troublesome.

Obama, whose campaign organized babysitters for potential caucus-goers, said he was expecting a high turnout.

"We've seen these enormous crowds as we travel across the state in this last week, and the weather's been brutal, so for these folks to be coming out just to hear a candidate at the last minute, it's doubtful they're not going to go to caucus," he said Thursday.

Edwards -- who placed second in the 2004 caucuses -- swore off sleep to hold a 36-hour marathon. Video Watch Edwards call for an investigation of oil prices »

Democratic hopeful Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico said he was feeling good in the final hours.

"You know, I think a lot of the undecideds are breaking my way. Iowans make up their minds at the last minute, maybe 30 percent of them in the last three to four days, and I'm seeing good movement," he said. Video Watch Richardson call for a 50 mpg fuel standard »

The second tier of Democratic candidates -- Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, and Richardson -- all needed strong showings in Iowa to avoid a fatal blow to their campaigns.

Sueven · Post by **Sueven** » January 3, 2008, 11:51 pm

CNN is projecting Obama now.

I'm thrilled about Obama winning. Mixed feelings on Huckabee. I agree that he's totally unelectable, but I'm also afraid that he has zero shot in the primaries. I'm hoping for anybody-but-Giuliani in the Republican primaries, so handing a win to a guy who has no shot in a state that Giuliani ignored is not something I'm thrilled about.

Hoping for McCain/Obama in New Hampshire!

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 4, 2008, 12:02 am

Despite the fact that Guiliani claims not to care about Iowa, it's still hilarious to see him get absolutely trounced by Ron Paul

America's mayor my ass.

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » January 4, 2008, 12:32 am

Woooooo Obama!!!

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 4, 2008, 12:39 am

lol @ Chuck Norris standing behind Huckabee during his speech tonight.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 4, 2008, 12:40 am

Haha yeah, his face is about three times the size of Huckabee's little tennis ball sized monstrosity.

Edit: His speech is reminiscent of a tongue tripping Bush fiasco. "I believe that change is about change and that means a challenge for change about...what was I talking about again?" Fortunately he has zero chance of being President.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 4, 2008, 12:45 am

All the candidates have severe raccoon eyes from standing in the sun campaigning...except for evil Hillary! I hope Edwards pulls out second place ahead of her.

Huckabee sounds better than Bush when he speaks. That's something I guess. Kinda gives off that Mike Brady (Brady Bunch) "father figure" vibe.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 4, 2008, 12:47 am

Winnow wrote: Huckabee sounds better than Bush when he speaks. That's something I guess.

Not really, considering that most 3 year old children are more eloquent than Bush. Every single candidate on both sides of the party line sound infinitely less retarded than Bush.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 4, 2008, 1:10 am

Obama kind of sounds like Morpheus. His speech and supporters definitely are the most energetic.

Hope he has a good security detail! Hillary will be going into desperation mode soon.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 4, 2008, 1:13 am

Yeah, he sounds about a billion times better than "HEY IVE GOT CHUCK NORRIS BEHIND ME LOL" man.

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » January 4, 2008, 1:15 am

The Iowa Caucus procedure is some fucked up shit for both parties!

Canelek · Post by **Canelek** » January 4, 2008, 4:46 am

reminds me of some kind of silly cake-walk at a church-faire

Xyun · Post by **Xyun** » January 4, 2008, 5:20 am

Yay obama!

His momentum will carry him to the nomination and eventually the presidency, which I have been predicting for quite some time.

i just hope he doesn't get shot.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » January 4, 2008, 5:30 am

Giuliani is the last person I would want to see as president so I'm glad to see he's not doing so well. At least in Iowa.

When I think of Giuliani being president I think George Bush: Term 3. He's an evil man.

Gzette · Post by **Gzette** » January 4, 2008, 9:20 am

Per the Dem's caucus rules in Iowa, Obama's number are probably inflated.

I'm elated he won, but Kucinich and another Dem candidate (can't remember his name ATM..THKS whiskey) decreed to their supporters that Obama would be their 2nd choice.

Midnyte_Ragebringer · Post by **Midnyte_Ragebringer** » January 4, 2008, 9:58 am

I'm happy he won too, but it was but a 200 vote victory. A whopping 2500 Dems went out to vote yesterday. Quite laughable how important such a small election is. It's only slightly larger than a straw poll. haha

eOmniz · Post by **eOmniz** » January 4, 2008, 10:45 am

???

This morning I heard 240,000 democrats voted, up from 125,000 in 2004. I believe you're talking about number of precincts, not actual votes, but maybe I misheard, source?

edit - No, I didn't mishear, you are talking about number of precincts and not number of votes.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... d=17831592 scroll down to "Strong Turnout Among Democrats". 116,000 Republicans voted, up from 85,000 in 2004.

Good signs for Obama.

sarlen · Post by **sarlen** » January 4, 2008, 11:11 am

Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:I'm happy he won too, but it was but a 200 vote victory. A whopping 2500 Dems went out to vote yesterday. Quite laughable how important such a small election is. It's only slightly larger than a straw poll. haha

ya the numbers were 240k+ for the dems and 115k+ for the republicans. The low numbers you see in all the graphics for the dems are the delegates not the number of people who voted for that person. The dems dont show the actual number the way the republicans do. There is no way I could explain the process and have it make sense, but http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus has a good explanation of it.

Midnyte_Ragebringer · January 4, 2008, 11:32 am

sarlen wrote:
Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:I'm happy he won too, but it was but a 200 vote victory. A whopping 2500 Dems went out to vote yesterday. Quite laughable how important such a small election is. It's only slightly larger than a straw poll. haha

ya the numbers were 240k+ for the dems and 115k+ for the republicans. The low numbers you see in all the graphics for the dems are the delegates not the number of people who voted for that person. The dems dont show the actual number the way the republicans do. There is no way I could explain the process and have it make sense, but http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus has a good explanation of it.

Ahhhh. Wow. Thanks Sarlen. It was baffeling me last night seeing the Republicans numbers in the 30 thousands and then seeing such a small number, under a thousand, for the dems. I kept wondering why none of the talking heads mentioned this. haha

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » January 4, 2008, 12:08 pm

Boogahz wrote:The Iowa Caucus procedure is some fucked up shit for both parties!

That's part of why I said this Mid.

Also, keep in mind that 3 of the last 4 presidents did not win in the Iowa Caucus. That should give you an idea of how "important" it is to be ahead there.

Dregor Thule · Post by **Dregor Thule** » January 4, 2008, 12:15 pm

Hell, the entire election process is some fucked up shit. No reason for the Iowa caucus to break the mold.

Lynks · Post by **Lynks** » January 4, 2008, 1:48 pm

Winnow wrote:Obama kind of sounds like Morpheus. His speech and supporters definitely are the most energetic.

I find he sounds exactly like the Rock.

Fairweather Pure · Post by **Fairweather Pure** » January 4, 2008, 6:35 pm

Lynks wrote:
Winnow wrote:Obama kind of sounds like Morpheus. His speech and supporters definitely are the most energetic.
I find he sounds exactly like the Rock.

Can you smell what Obama is cookin'?

Aardor · Post by **Aardor** » January 4, 2008, 7:20 pm

Fairweather Pure wrote:
Lynks wrote:
Winnow wrote:Obama kind of sounds like Morpheus. His speech and supporters definitely are the most energetic.
I find he sounds exactly like the Rock.
Can you smell what Obama is cookin'?

I think you mean:

Can you smell what Barack is cookin? (say it out loud!)

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » January 4, 2008, 9:11 pm

According to a GOP strategist Scott Reed, the numbers came in at 239,000 Dems and 119,000 Repubs. This is from the yahoo article, via AP: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080104/ap_po/campaign_rdp . Last paragraph down cites the numbers.

Our election process is buggered. I think we need to do a rotation on the caucuses so that no one state is always the front runner and has a majority of the power in determining who makes it to the national race.

And once again, Wooo Obama!!!

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » January 4, 2008, 9:41 pm

Kaldaur wrote:I think we need to do a rotation on the caucuses so that no one state is always the front runner and has a majority of the power in determining who makes it to the national race.

This one really doesn't though.

Candidates in bold eventually won their party's nomination. Candidates in italics subsequently won the general election.

Democrats
January 3, 2008 - Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%), Chris Dodd 0%, Mike Gravel 0%, and Dennis Kucinich 0%
January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Dick Gephardt (11%), and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
January 24, 2000 - Al Gore (63%) and Bill Bradley (37%)
February 12, 1996 - Bill Clinton (unopposed)
February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%)
February 8, 1988 - Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
February 20, 1984 - Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%), and Jesse Jackson (2%)
January 21, 1980 - Jimmy Carter (59%) and Ted Kennedy (31%)
January 19, 1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%), Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
January 24, 1972 - "Uncommitted" (36%), Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%)

Republicans
2008- Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%) *95% of precincts reporting
2004- George W. Bush (unopposed)
2000- George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%), and Orrin Hatch (1%)
1996- Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%), and Morry Taylor (1%)
1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1988- Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%), and Pete DuPont (7%)
1984- Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
1980- George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%), and Bob Dole (2%)
1976- Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan

Fash · Post by **Fash** » January 5, 2008, 3:38 am

Tonight is the first time I've ever donated money to a candidate for president.

Siji · Post by **Siji** » January 6, 2008, 3:30 pm

Dropping ones at a strip club doesn't count..

Forthe · Post by **Forthe** » January 7, 2008, 11:03 am

2 new polls show Obama pulling ahead in NH (13 points +/- 4 and 10 points +/- 5). Things could get interesting tomorrow.

Animale · Post by **Animale** » January 7, 2008, 3:54 pm

My brother has been up in NH canvasing for Obama. He says the response is pretty positive all the way around, and thinks he's going to take it (of course). I need to talk to him a bit more to see what the responses were (he was busy when I called him this weekend canvasing - which is something I would be HORRIBLE at. I hate cold calling/talking to people.).

We'll see I guess... going to be an interesting day for sure if the polls continue to show Clinton dropping - I have no doubt that she'll go no holds barred pretty soon. We'll see how Obama stacks up to that soon, which is a good thing since I think the stuff Clinton will bring is at least on par with what the Republicans will (without the tacit race-baiting of course... Welfare Queens anybody?).

Animale

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 7, 2008, 4:14 pm

Animale wrote:his weekend canvasing - which is something I would be HORRIBLE at. I hate cold calling/talking to people.)

Any candidate's stooges that called me would notch a negative mark against that candidate for me.

Cold callers suck. I'd be pissed even if I liked the candidate.

Midnyte_Ragebringer · Post by **Midnyte_Ragebringer** » January 7, 2008, 4:25 pm

Winnow wrote:
Animale wrote:his weekend canvasing - which is something I would be HORRIBLE at. I hate cold calling/talking to people.)
Any candidate's stooges that called me would notch a negative mark against that candidate for me.

Cold callers suck. I'd be pissed even if I liked the candidate.

Not me. I hate that shit too, but the candidate isn't to blame....it's the process.

Animale · Post by **Animale** » January 7, 2008, 4:29 pm

Don't move to New Hampshire, Iowa, or South Carolina then... that's where the focus is really on the "personal" touch of door to door canvasing and cold calling. The bigger and later states there is obviously less emphasis on that kind of campaigning (not that it doesn't exist, just you are less likely to have four people come to your door in an evening).

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 7, 2008, 4:40 pm

Sidenote:

It's wild watching the DJIA and NASDAQ tickers while Bush is speaking live. He mentioned some home loan relief and the market immediately shot up within seconds.

Now he's shuddering and the market's dropping again.

Changing tax code: healthcare deduction didn't help the market much!

Overall, market slightly up while Bush is speaking although it's been jumping back and forth between green and red.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 8, 2008, 3:16 am

Some pretty funny comments over on digg regarding Hillary's fake crying today:

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Hilla ... is_Morning

Midnyte_Ragebringer · January 8, 2008, 10:16 am

Crocodile tears, indeed. Laughable.

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 9, 2008, 12:30 am

It seems that more than enough gullible fuckheads, notably a lot of women, appear to have fallen for such obvious crocodile tears. New Hampshire is clearly filled with fucking morons.

Midnyte_Ragebringer · Post by **Midnyte_Ragebringer** » January 9, 2008, 1:05 am

Nick wrote:It seems that more than enough gullible fuckheads, notably a lot of women, appear to have fallen for such obvious crocodile tears. New Hampshire is clearly filled with fucking morons.

Well said.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 9, 2008, 1:41 am

Hillary's a guaranteed loss for the democrats as a presidential candidate when the final elections take place.

I think McCain should try a bald headed look. Those few strands of white hair aren't helping anything.

McCain vs Hillary = McCain

McCain vs Obama = who knows

Obama vs non McCain rep candidate = Obama

Hillary vs non McCain rep candidate = Apocalypse

Concerns:

McCain: health, appeal to younger generations
Obama: racism hurting his chances, lack of experience, capital gains tax
Hillary: evil, heartless, insincere, looks Canadian

Nick · Post by **Nick** » January 9, 2008, 1:46 am

Assuming Hillary would lose against any of the Republicans would seem, even to the most naive of pundits, a pretty ridiculous argument at this point.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » January 9, 2008, 3:19 am

Obama needs to break down and cry like a little bitch in the next state. He'll gain those women votes he lost to Hillary back.

Leonaerd · Post by **Leonaerd** » January 9, 2008, 3:25 am

Winnow wrote:Obama needs to break down and cry like a little bitch in the next state. He'll gain those women votes he lost to Hillary back.

No shit. What a fucking joke.

Tyek · Post by **Tyek** » January 9, 2008, 4:10 pm

I just got this from a customer and it amazed me. They actually took a Snopes article that downplays the Muslim and Pledge issues and seriously questions it and they changed it to read he IS a Muslim and DOES NOT say the pledge of Allegience.

Subject: Fw: Barack Hussien Obama

A MUST READ.

Sounds like a Muslim at heart and I really don't know where Oprah's head is.

Who is Barack Hussien Obama?

Very interesting and something that should be considered in your
choice.

If you do not ever forward anything else, please forward this to all
your contacts...this is very scary to think of what lies ahead of us
here in our own United States...better heed this and pray about it and share it.

We checked this out on "snopes.com". It is factual. Check for yourself.

Who is Barack Obama?

Probable U. S. presidential candidate, Barack Hussein Obama was born
in Honolulu, Hawaii, to Barack Hussein Obama, Sr., a black MUSLIM
from Nyangoma-Kogel, Kenya and Ann Dunham, a white ATHEIST from
Wichita, Kansas.
Obama's parents met at the University of Hawaii . When Obama was two
years old, his parent ts divorced. Hi s father returned to Kenya . His
mother then married Lolo Soetoro, a RADICAL Muslim from Indonesia .
When Obama was 6 years old, the family relocate to Indonesia . Obama
attended a MUSLIM school in Jakarta . He also spent two years in a
Catholic school.

Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim. He is
quick to point out that, "He was once attended a Muslim school, but that he also
attended Catholic school."

Obama's political handlers are attempting to make it appear that
that he is not a radical.

Obama's introduction to Islam came via his father, and that this
influence was temporary at best. In reality, the senior Obama returned
to Kenya soon after the divorce, and never again had any direct
influence over his son's education.

Lolo Soetoro, the second husband of Obama's mother, Ann Dunham, < B R>introduced his stepson to Islam. Obama was enrolled in a Wahabi school
in Jakarta .

Wahabism is the RADICAL teaching prominent in Saudi Arabia that is followed by the Muslim
terrorists who are now waging Jihad against the western world. Since
it is politically expedient to be a CHRISTIAN when seeking major
public office in the United States , Barack Hussein Obama has joined
the United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim
background. ALSO, keep in mind that when he was sworn into office he
DID NOT use the Holy Bible, but instead the Koran.

Barack Hussein Obama will NOT recite the Pledge of Allegiance nor
will he show any reverence for our flag. While others place their hands
over their hearts, Obama turns his back to the flag and slouches.

Let us all remain alert concerning Obama's expected presidential
candidacy.

The Muslims have said they plan on destroying the US from the inside
out, what better way to start than at the highest level - through the
President of the United States , one of their own!!!!

Please forward to everyone you know. Would you want this man leading
our country?...... NOT ME!!!

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp

I included the actual Snopes link here, but they highlight weird points and also seem to ignore sections, this is hilarious.

Chidoro · Post by **Chidoro** » January 9, 2008, 5:58 pm

The caucus dopped both of my favorites so even a fuckstate of hillbillies can screw it up for the rest of america. I have no idea why NJ is still completely irrelevant because of it's placement in the primaries but it's the reason I could care less about the primaries. Why even bother if your choices are canned before you even get to voice your opinion.
My wife asks me who I would vote for and I can say that only know who I wouldn't vote for. Sadly it doesn't include any of the frontrunners save Edwards. Looks like I'm going to be voting for another fringe person where my, "vote doesn't count" yet again