CNN-Opinion Research Poll wrote:
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 33 percent
Barack Obama, 31 percent
John Edwards, 22 percent
Mitt Romney, 31 percent
Mike Huckabee, 28 percent
Fred Thompson, 13 percent
John McCain, 10 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 8 percent
Ron Paul, 8 percent
OF INTEREST:
The poll shows a two-way race developing for the Democratic nomination in Iowa, with Clinton and Obama in a dead-heat and support for Edwards dropping. Previous polls in late December showed a tight three-way race between the three candidates. This poll suggests Democratic voters in Iowa see Clinton as the candidate who can win the general election and is most experienced while they say Obama is the most likable and most honest candidate. For Iowa's GOP race, Romney and Huckabee remain virtually tied; McCain, Thompson and Giuliani still trail far behind.
The CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Dec. 26-30. It included telephone interviews with 373 Republicans likely to vote in the Iowa caucuses, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points; and 482 likely Democratic voters, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 points.
Des Moines Register Poll wrote:
Barack Obama, 32 percent
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 25 percent
John Edwards, 24 percent
Bill Richardson, 6 percent
Mike Huckabee, 32 percent
Mitt Romney, 26 percent
John McCain, 13 percent
Fred Thompson, 9 percent
Ron Paul, 9 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 5 percent
OF INTEREST:
An influx of first-time caucus-goers, including political independents, helped Obama inch further ahead of Clinton. His support increased from 28 percent in a Des Moines Register poll in November, while Clinton's remained flat, at 25 percent. Edwards' performance was about the same as in last month's survey. Obama's lead also is the largest of any of the Democratic candidates in Register polling this year.
Among Republicans, the survey shows McCain overtaking Giuliani to move into third place, up from his fifth in the November survey. Giuliani, who has not campaigned as hard in Iowa as some of his rivals, has fallen to sixth place. McCain is enjoying a resurgence of sorts in his campaign, and is looking for a strong finish in Iowa to help him in next-up New Hampshire, where he also has gained support.
The telephone poll for The Des Moines Register of 800 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 800 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted Dec. 27-30. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Is CNN pushing Clinton? Or are the sample sizes and general legitimacy of the polls so poor that they are entirely useless, and in fact harmful to the process?
Is Obama the inevitable candidate now? It's getting closer now and I'm not sure this specific question ever came up... do you think he can win against Huckabee?
I could win against Huckabee. He stands very little chance in the general election (never say never, but damn he's a nutcase).
That being said... the polls themselves are within error of one another, so they basically say the same thing: dead heat between Clinton/Obama/Edwards. See you on election day!
Now, the opinion stuff after the actual poll numbers are probably due to secondary questions asked about each specific candidate.
The primary's are so fricking early this year, I am despising it. Makes it difficult to make reasonable choices since we are so far away from the actual election who knows what will happen between now and then. We'll have 6 dead months before the damn conventions (assuming it's decided Feb 5, which seems likely to me). Crazy.
I'm sure it's something like that. No one in their right mind would be voting for Hillary. The Des Moines Register Poll is probably more accurate.
What a sad selection of candidates on both sides. I'm not sold on Obama but you're almost forced to vote for him considering the rest of the field.
I predict some serious turmoil for U.S. politics over the next 4 years no matter who gets elected.
So how's this look:
Barack Obama/John Edwards Ticket wins the White House
Obama doesn't last long in office due to any number of bigotry or political conspiracy reasons and Edwards becomes president less than a year after Obama takes office.
I think an Obama/Edwards ticket is highly unlikely. Their political approaches are philosophical opposites.
Obama wrote:"Change is not going to come just because we holler and shout at the lobbyists," he said. "It's not going to come because we turn up the heat on Republicans. There's no shortage of anger in Washington. We don't need more heat in Washington, we need more light."
Edwards wrote:He said Obama "has this philosophical view that you can sit at a table with drug companies, oil companies and insurance companies and negotiate with them, and somehow they'll just voluntarily give their power away -- and I think that's a complete fantasy. It will never happen."
Maybe they could play good cop / bad cop, but I don't know that it would work.
Disregard whatever misgivings people have about Clinton but shouldn't caucus goers realize that Independents are highly favored to Obama rather than Clinton. O'Reilly is correct when he spouts the Clinton hate factor on his show.
Sueven wrote:I agree with everything Animale said.
I think an Obama/Edwards ticket is highly unlikely. Their political approaches are philosophical opposites.
Oh I know, but the VP is normally a bullshit position with no power (except for Cheney who runs things). The VP is there to get more votes. If people that would have voted for Edwards now vote for Obama, it works out. Remember Quayle? He certainly wasn't picked for his view on anything. He was added to the ticket to bring in some female votes.
I really hope Hillary thinks the VP position is beneath her. I fear she might take a VP spot with plans to off the president later. Both Clintons are extremely dirty politicians.
Fash wrote:Is CNN pushing Clinton? Or are the sample sizes and general legitimacy of the polls so poor that they are entirely useless, and in fact harmful to the process?
Speaking of primaries and caucuses, the first one is on Thursday, in Iowa. We have three new polls and they contradict one another to some extent. It appears to be a close contest between all three top contenders, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards and between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney for the Republicans. The trouble with Iowa polling is that about 1 in 10 eligible voters actually go. It is not hard to call 1000 Democrats and find out who they like, but the trick is figuring out which 100 of them will actually go to the caucus. The weather prediction is for 'cloudy,' which is much better than 'raging snowstorm.' We'll soon know (or maybe it will be a tie on both sides, then we won't know) and then the spotlight moves on to New Hampshire for its primary Jan. 8.
Obama/Clinton is way more electable. They just couldn't put their egos aside to make it happen. Goes to show how little each side truly cares about the platforms they represent. They only care about those platforms and constituents if they are the ones getting all the power and glory.
