How close is the Middle East to all-out war?

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Dregor Thule
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How close is the Middle East to all-out war?

Post by Dregor Thule »

Israel intensified its attacks against Lebanon on Thursday, blasting Beirut's international airport and the southern part of the country in its heaviest air campaign against its neighbor in 24 years. Nearly three dozen civilians were killed, officials said.

The strikes on the airport, which damaged three runways, came hours before Israel also imposed a naval blockade on Lebanon to cut off supply routes to Lebanese militants.

The shockwaves from the fighting began to be felt a day after Hezbollah snatched two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. The escalation of violence in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices to a new intraday record of $75.88 a barrel. Western countries, Russia and the United Nations called for restraint and demanded the soldiers be released.

Israel said it was seeking to end once and for all Hezbollah's presence on Lebanon's southern border, while the guerrillas insisted they would only release the soldiers in exchange for Israel freeing Arab prisoners.

The airport, located in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, was closed after the attacks and flights were diverted to nearby Cyprus. It was the first time since Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon and occupation of Beirut that the airport was hit by Israel.

Israel also fired a missile at the building housing the studios of Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Thursday morning, the channel's press officer Ibrahim Farhat told The Associated Press. One person was hurt, but the station continued to broadcast.

Overnight Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, meanwhile, killed 35 civilians and wounded dozens more, Lebanese security officials said. A family of 10 and another family of seven were killed in their homes in the village of Dweir near Nabatiyeh, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the press.

Later Thursday, Lebanese guerrillas fired volleys of rockets at northern Israel, killing an Israeli woman in her home in the border town of Nahariya, officials said. Five people were wounded. Thousands of civilians spent Wednesday night in underground shelters.

Eight Israeli soldiers and three Lebanese were killed in fighting Wednesday.

Air force Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel said the campaign was likely Israel's largest ever in Lebanon, measured in number of targets hit in one night and the complexity of the strikes. The last major military offensive against Lebanon was in 1996 when about 150 Lebanese civilians were killed.

On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called the Hezbollah raid an "act of war" by Lebanon and threatened "very, very, very painful" retaliation. The Cabinet, meeting in the wake of the military's highest daily death toll in four years, decided to continue the army operation and call on the international community to disarm Hezbollah, according to participants.

On Thursday, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said the offensive in Lebanon has far-reaching objectives, including pushing Hezbollah militants away from the Israeli border and eventually sidelining the group altogether.

"We must neutralize the hostile terrorist infrastructure that exists in Lebanon," he said.

Senior Israeli military officials said Israel warned the Lebanese government that it plans to strike offices and homes of Hezbollah leaders in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz also demanded that Lebanese army forces be deployed along the border, saying Israel would not allow Hezbollah guerrillas to reoccupy its positions there. Lebanon has long refused to do this, saying that it is not in business of protecting Israel's northern border.

The Lebanese government said Wednesday that it had not known of the Hezbollah operation, did not condone it and bore no responsibility for it. The Lebanese Cabinet, which includes two Hezbollah ministers, urged the U.N. Security Council to intervene.

Hezbollah's brazen cross-border raid Wednesday opened a second front for the Israeli army. The army launched an incursion into the Gaza Strip more than two weeks ago to search for another Israeli soldier who was captured by Hamas-linked militants.

At least 23 Palestinians were killed in Gaza on Wednesday. And an Israeli airstrike early Thursday destroyed the building housing the Hamas-controlled Palestinian Foreign Ministry.

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday offered to trade the two captured Israeli soldiers for Arab prisoners, and warned Israel that his guerrillas would fight if attacked. The group says it has over 10,000 rockets and has in the past struck northern Israeli communities in retaliation for attacks against Lebanese civilians.

The attack on the airport occurred shortly after 6 a.m. Thursday. Warplanes struck three runways, leaving a large crater and seven smaller holes, airport officials said. Two flights approaching the airport were diverted to Larnaca airport on Cyprus.

The main terminal building of the $500-million airport, which was built in the late 1990s, remained intact.

The Israeli military confirmed it had struck the airport, saying the facility is "a central hub for the transfer of weapons and supplies to the Hezbollah terrorist organization."

In its overnight attacks, Israeli aircraft and artillery targeted roads and bridges, as well as Hezbollah positions and houses of guerrilla members and leaders. A bridge on the main highway between Beirut and southern Lebanon was hit by big bombs that left huge craters, blocking traffic.

Airstrikes also hit deep inside eastern Lebanon, striking a civic center attached to a Shiite Muslim mosque near the town of Baalbek, as well as a transmission antenna for Al-Manar, witnesses reported. The group's broadcasts stopped in the area.

Israeli jets also blasted the Khardali Bridge on the Litani River, 10 miles north of the Lebanese-Israeli border, witnesses said.

Hezbollah TV reported that guerrillas has fired Katyusha rockets at the Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona and targeted an airstrip in the upper Galilee panhandle. Another barrage of rockets targeted Nahariya near the coast.

Nahariya Mayor Jackie Sabag said the whole town had been shut down and residents were urged to stay in underground shelters. Patients at the town's hospital were moved to rooms on lower floors.

The Israeli army said several rockets had landed more than 12 miles south of the border, showing that Hezbollah has managed to extend its missiles' range.

Israel and Lebanon have a history of conflict, punctuated by a full-scale Israeli invasion in 1982, and its 18-year occupation of a buffer zone in southern Lebanon that was intended to prevent attacks on Israel.
Not looking very good for the region. I'm not going to make this some pro-Palestinian or pro-Israel message, that's not what I want to discuss. What I want to talk about is just how likely it is that these attacks on "terrorists" will spiral into all-out war between nations. I don't know a lot about Hezbollah. They seem to qualify as a radical group, but they also apparently have some legitimacy in Lebanon as shown in the article by two of their ministers are part of the Cabinet. Someone with more knowledge on the region care to share their thoughts on how far this is may go? Will we be seeing countries sidling up with Lebannon and reacting to Israels attacks?
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Fucking George Bush!
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Post by Niffoni »

Derail attempt: 13 minutes after original post.

The board lurkers watch in rapt attention to see if the bait will be taken by the usual suspects, or if the wild shot will drop harmlessly into the ocean and be ignored.
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Post by Bubba Grizz »

I think it is time to take the leash off Israel and let them sleep in the bed they are making for themselves. America already has enough problems without trying to fix this. Let the UN or Russia deal with this one.
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Post by Animale »

I just don't understand Israel's motivation for their military responses. The kidnapping of the soldiers in the north was a direct response to their invasion of Gaza after the similar incident in the south. Hezbollah has wanted to start a shooting war for a long time, and Israel handed them the means to realize their desires on a silver platter.

It's baffling.

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Post by kyoukan »

Bubba Grizz wrote:I think it is time to take the leash off Israel and let them sleep in the bed they are making for themselves. America already has enough problems without trying to fix this. Let the UN or Russia deal with this one.
what leash? israel has always done whatever the fuck it wants to do, despite the fact it is basically a welfare state supported by the US.

with any luck the entire region will wipe each other out and I will only have to put up with another years worth of news being clogged up with their childish fucking behaviour.
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Post by Skogen »

Nothing new going on here...just another tit for tat episode in the Israeli - Palastinian feud. This is nothing compared to crap going on over there in the 80's.
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Post by Winnow »

I'm still more concerned with North Korea. Talk of a military strike should have everyone nervous. North Korea doesn't have much to lose by attacking the South. North Korea will be an all or nothing type war, not small skirmishes.

My call is that nukes will first be used in Iran. They are capable of fucking with the Persian Gulf and our oil supply. No mercy. Americans aren't going to care about a little radiation cloud halfway around the globe if gas is 5.00/gallon. It comes down to the U.S./Western way of gluttonous living or an end to easy living in the West. Euros, Canadians, etc will point fingers at Bush but secretly they'll be doing the happy dance because their phat lifestyles will remain intact.

Seriously though, taking a look at the whole picture, I'd start enjoying and appreciating your current lifestyle day to day as over the next few years, we easily could be in for a huge drop in comfort of living.

*baits*
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Post by Skogen »

North Korea is just blowing hot air. If they tried anything, they wont get the help of the Chinese this time around. China wants a nuclear NK about as much as Japan does. China has strong economic ties to South Korea, I doubt China will tolerate NK starting any shit. NK is highly dependent of China for material assistance as well. China & NK have a pretty strange relationship, but I just don't see anything happening there.
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Post by Dregor Thule »

Well, I've been doing more reading on the situation. One article cited an Iraqi official as saying they've received reports that Hezbollah is moving the captured soldiers to Iran, an ally of Hezbollah. I dread to think what will happen if this comes to pass and Israel moves to get them back by force.
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Post by Skogen »

Dregor Thule wrote:Well, I've been doing more reading on the situation. One article cited an Iraqi official as saying they've received reports that Hezbollah is moving the captured soldiers to Iran, an ally of Hezbollah. I dread to think what will happen if this comes to pass and Israel moves to get them back by force.
Israeli air strikes on Iranian Nuclear facilities are almost inevitable. If this happens, they'll just happen a whole lot sooner.
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Post by Dregor Thule »

Whew, ok, guess there's no reason to be worried then! :roll:
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Post by Skogen »

Dregor Thule wrote:Whew, ok, guess there's no reason to be worried then! :roll:
well, my post was supposed to to sardonic/sarcastic. it didn't carry off well over teh intraweb!!

Seriously though, what could happen?

EDIT: Here's a good one...Iran has a major ability to spread terror all over the wolrd...how about this one?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/saudi/story/0 ... 12,00.html
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Post by Sirton »

with any luck the entire region will wipe each other out and I will only have to put up with another years worth of news being clogged up with their childish fucking behaviour.
I agree with Kooky OMG.....Id rather they blow up each other now in there region than the entire world in 200yrs.
CRY HAVOC...........AND LET SLIP THE DOGS OF WAR!!!!!
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Post by Sueven »

Hezbollah is a militant Shi'ite group. They were one of the many factions involved in the Lebanese civil war, and during that time they fought pretty much everyone-- Israeli's, Americans, Maronite Christians, Syrians, Sunnis, other Shi'ite groups. Hezbollah has always had strong links to Iran, reports of Iranian collaboration are absolutely nothing new. Currently, Hezbollah serves two major roles in Lebanese politics. Lebanon's government is basically parliamentary in structure, and Hezbollah is one of the factions that constitute the government. Hezbollah also employs its historical militant methods to exercise complete control over South Lebanon. Imagine if the United States government was as it is now, except Christian Conservatives also ran the bible belt completely, and the actual U.S. Government was totally unable to do anything there, despite the fact that there are a shitload of Christian Conservatives in the government. That's what Hezbollah is (sort of) like, except in their case, the area that they control borders Israel. So that's a little messy.

I don't know enough to make bold claims yet, but I'm not so upset by these developments. I'm pretty pessimistic that shit can be resolved in the Middle East without shit going down first, and if shit is going to go down, this isn't a bad way for it to happen.

My impression is that Iran, Syria, and what there is of Palestine would be Lebanon's most natural allies if this were to escalate. I doubt the United States would get seriously involved unless Iran were to become involved, in which case we'd have a pretty serious conflict.
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Post by Pherr the Dorf »

When the shit hits the fan, we can just call it "6 day war-remix"

This time it'll only take israel a day or two to wipe them off the map
The first duty of a patriot is to question the government

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Post by Skogen »

Pherr the Dorf wrote:When the shit hits the fan, we can just call it "6 day war-remix"

This time it'll only take israel a day or two to wipe them off the map
That wasn't the case when Israel pulled out of Lebanon with their tails between there legs the last time they were there.
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Post by Nick »

My call is that nukes will first be used in Iran.
Yes Winnow but you "called" that Saddam would use chemical weapons on US soldiers in the iraq war so we have all learned long ago to stop taking anything you say seriously. (Evidence by the rest of that idiotic paragraph).
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Post by Boogahz »

Nick wrote:
My call is that nukes will first be used in Iran.
Yes Winnow but you "called" that Saddam would use chemical weapons on US soldiers in the iraq war so we have all learned long ago to stop taking anything you say seriously. (Evidence by the rest of that idiotic paragraph).
Psst, read the last line of his post.
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Post by kyoukan »

Pherr the Dorf wrote:When the shit hits the fan, we can just call it "6 day war-remix"

This time it'll only take israel a day or two to wipe them off the map
Except that basically every major western city is packed full of extremist muslims waiting to riot the moment they even think that other countries are supporting Israel in their little match.

What happened in Paris this year is nothing like what you are going to be seeing in the next decade or so.
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Post by Nick »

I read it Boog, I just thought it was worth reminding everyone of Winnow's "call" re Saddam's usage of chemical weapons on US troops.
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Post by Winnow »

Nick wrote:I read it Boog, I just thought it was worth reminding everyone of Winnow's "call" re Saddam's usage of chemical weapons on US troops.
I demand the exact quote of what I said!
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Post by Nick »

PostPosted: January 24, 2003, 5:37 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
This has been known for awhile and factored in.

Edit: the big question is if he'll use biological or chemical weapons. My guess is he will and would also use nukes on his own soil if he had them.

Last edited by Winnow on January 24, 2003, 5:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
"Seems Saddam knows what this potential war is really about" January 24th 2003.

http://www.veeshanvault.org/forums/view ... nuary+2003

That's the first one, there are a few more which I'll find later after I have had something to eat :D
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Post by Trek »

This is'nt going to be a typical exchange, this is a different time and the region is even more unstable then it was in the past. If the Lebenonese government doesnt do something about Hezbollah (which they really cant) then Isreal will and it will be very aggressive and destructive. 100 missles was someone trying to jumpstart this conflict.
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Post by Canelek »

This would be a good opportunity for the England to rebuild their empire. :) After losing all those cool islands in the Gulf, India, parts of North Africa and Hong Kong, they need to start somewhere.
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Post by Cartalas »

kyoukan wrote:
Pherr the Dorf wrote:When the shit hits the fan, we can just call it "6 day war-remix"

This time it'll only take israel a day or two to wipe them off the map
Except that basically every major western city is packed full of extremist muslims waiting to riot the moment they even think that other countries are supporting Israel in their little match.

What happened in Paris this year is nothing like what you are going to be seeing in the next decade or so.
Does that mean I can break out the rifles and kill me some brownies? Yeee Haaaaaa
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Post by Krimson Klaw »

You are such a dumbass.
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Post by Kilrain »

To answer the original question, yes it can very easily escalate. First off, Hezbollah's raid into Israel has nothing to do with the Hama's kiddnapping of the Israeli soldier earlier in the week... the information circulating now is that Iran (and to a lesser extent Syria) are behind Hezollah's brazen move in attempt to divert attention from Iran's nuclear ambitions at this weekend's G8 Summit. This theory seems logical... albeit insane from Iran's PoV.

Israel does indeed have the right to defend itself against terrorists as any other nation does. If Lebanon cannot control Hezbollah, then they have no choice but to fight back themselves. A government has a responsibility to defend the lives of its citizens. So U.S. public support is rightly placed. As is Canada's. Russia, France condemn Israel's reaction as too harsh... but that is to be expected from the Russian's and French. The EU is kind of riding the fence on this... they have warned Israel of the dangers of escalation but the wording wasn't as strong as France and Russia.

The G8 Summit will be much more interesting as a result of the conflicting opinions...

That being said, Syria as well as Lebanon, house Hezbollah forces, in addition to housing the military wing of Hamas. It is quite possible that Israel may do selective bombing raids in Syria to disrupt the activities of the Hezbollah forces that are there as well as missle strikes to take out the militant leaders of Hamas.

Should Israel do this, it will be seen as a major escalation, one in which the President of Iran has publically stated tonight as (and I paraphrase) "an attack on the entire Islamic world that would result in a fierce and vicious retaliation."

And to the point that another poster made previously, I add a simple footnote of sorts - the U.S. gives Israel roughly 2.6 billion a year in aid, 2.25 of that is military aid.

Could it escalate? Yes, especially if Israel bombs targets or assassinates ppl in Syria and/or if Hezbollah get the two Israeli captives out of Lebanon and into Iran which they are trying to do.
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Post by Kilrain »

That wasn't the case when Israel pulled out of Lebanon with their tails between there legs the last time they were there.
Israel occupied Southern Lebanon for 18 years. This was done to keep Hezbollah pushed back from the border so their rockets could not reach Israeli cities. During the number of attempts to finally bring the region to the peace table, Israel agreed to pull their troops out of Southern Lebanon if a ceasefire could be maintained with Hezbollah so their cities and citizens could live in relative peace. It was a show of faith that was followed shortly after by Syria who also pulled their troops out of Lebanon.

That was not 'pulling out with their tail between their legs', it was an act of diplomacy - that ultimately failed, as all hopes for peace do in that region.
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Post by Skogen »

Krimson Klaw wrote:You are such a dumbass.
krimson comes out of the woodwork at all the right times!!
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Post by Cartalas »

Skogen wrote:
Krimson Klaw wrote:You are such a dumbass.
krimson comes out of the woodwork at all the right times!!
Krimson doesnt know when someone is making a joke.
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Post by Kilmoll the Sexy »

The major difference between the UN or US in a war with muslims and Israel in a war with muslims......Israel will not care at all about the citizens of the country. Guerilla tactics will not work when Isreal is going in to levle the entire place.
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Post by Forthe »

Cartalas wrote:
Skogen wrote:
Krimson Klaw wrote:You are such a dumbass.
krimson comes out of the woodwork at all the right times!!
Krimson doesnt know when someone is making a joke.
Dumbass joke.
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Post by Cartalas »

Forthe wrote:
Cartalas wrote:
Skogen wrote:
Krimson Klaw wrote:You are such a dumbass.
krimson comes out of the woodwork at all the right times!!
Krimson doesnt know when someone is making a joke.
Dumbass joke.

Thats what your father said to your mother when you slipped out.
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Post by Lynks »

At least he knows who his real dad is.
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Post by Sylvus »

Cartalas knows who his father is, Uncle Dad.
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Post by Voronwë »

Israel can't bomb the facility it is too far underground, from what i understand.

It would take a tactical warhead launched from .... the United States.

Perhaps we could drop one from a plane, that is why they have been testing those massive bombs in Nevada. The mass gives it inertia to blow through hundreds (thousands?) of feet of rock to get to the facility.

Iran wasnt going to build something a few F-16s could take out, especially knowing Iraq has essentially been US airspace for the last 15 years so there would have been no impediment to Israel striking them.
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Post by Dregor Thule »

Voro! You've been absent of late!
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Post by kyoukan »

Voronwë wrote:Israel can't bomb the facility it is too far underground, from what i understand.

It would take a tactical warhead launched from .... the United States.

Perhaps we could drop one from a plane, that is why they have been testing those massive bombs in Nevada. The mass gives it inertia to blow through hundreds (thousands?) of feet of rock to get to the facility.

Iran wasnt going to build something a few F-16s could take out, especially knowing Iraq has essentially been US airspace for the last 15 years so there would have been no impediment to Israel striking them.
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Post by Deward »

One thing to note here is that this is a war between Israel and Hezbollah...not Israel and Lebanon. The lebanese government is fairly ineffectual. I could definitely see Israel hitting targets in Syria and there is very little that Iran could do about it. Iran has almost no sea power and they have Iraq between them and Israel. They might be able to sneak a few troops through Iraq but not enough to prevent Israel from wiping the floor with whatever targets they decide to hit. Hezbollah will just crawl back underground till things blow over.

I don't blame Israel for their actions. It has been a long standing fact that their just is no way to bring these divisions together. I believe that if the muslims had a democratically elected leadership then peace would be an option but as long as they are led by a few cuckoo religious leaders then there can never be peace.

As for dragging the rest of the world into it, I find it highly unlikely. Iran is not going to attack the US in Iraq which is what they would have to do in order to get to Israel.
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Post by Skogen »

Well, this whole thing has one bright side for me....my boss took a one month vacation to visit his family in the middle east. Where is he right now? Beruit! He was supposed to fly back tomorrow and be back at work monday....not anymore!!
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Post by Cartalas »

Sylvus wrote:Cartalas knows who his father is, Uncle Dad.

Are you my Brother?
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Post by *~*stragi*~* »

Kilmoll the Sexy wrote:The major difference between the UN or US in a war with muslims and Israel in a war with muslims......Israel will not care at all about the citizens of the country. Guerilla tactics will not work when Isreal is going in to levle the entire place.
Agreed completely, I've been thinking the same thing for the past few days. If the trigger gets pulled Isreal is going to sunder some shit.
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Post by *~*stragi*~* »

Skogen wrote:Well, this whole thing has one bright side for me....my boss took a one month vacation to visit his family in the middle east. Where is he right now? Beruit! He was supposed to fly back tomorrow and be back at work monday....not anymore!!
That sucks, heh. Have you heard from him at all?
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Winnow
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Post by Winnow »

Voronwë wrote:Israel can't bomb the facility it is too far underground, from what i understand.

It would take a tactical warhead launched from .... the United States.

Perhaps we could drop one from a plane, that is why they have been testing those massive bombs in Nevada. The mass gives it inertia to blow through hundreds (thousands?) of feet of rock to get to the facility.

Iran wasnt going to build something a few F-16s could take out, especially knowing Iraq has essentially been US airspace for the last 15 years so there would have been no impediment to Israel striking them.
I posted about the bunker busters awhile back.

Image

Here's an article from a year ago about the U.S. wanting to sell Israel Bunker Buster bombs:

http://www.gnn.tv/headlines/2537/US_Wan ... ster_Bombs
A move seen as sending a message to Iran to halt its nuclear program.

The Bush administration has proposed providing Israel with 100 “bunker-buster” bombs capable of destroying underground targets, a move seen as sending a message to Iran to halt its nuclear program.

The Pentagon on Tuesday notified Congress of the possible sale of 5,000lb GBU-28 bombs, developed during the 1991 Gulf war to destroy Saddam Hussein’s hardened command centers. Congress has 30 days to object.

Any deal would be the first sale of the Lockheed Martin-built munition to a foreign country.

In January, Dick Cheney, US vice-president, suggested that Israel might take military action if the US and European Union failed to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions.
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Post by Skogen »

*~*stragi*~* wrote:
Skogen wrote:Well, this whole thing has one bright side for me....my boss took a one month vacation to visit his family in the middle east. Where is he right now? Beruit! He was supposed to fly back tomorrow and be back at work monday....not anymore!!
That sucks, heh. Have you heard from him at all?
not a peep. I don't care much....he's a major asshole ( I don't want him to get hurt/die or anything...I just downright don't like him). He went there wit his wife & 6 mo. old baby. All he can do is hunker down somewhere, and wait for all this to lighten up.
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Post by Cartalas »

Skogen wrote:
*~*stragi*~* wrote:
Skogen wrote:Well, this whole thing has one bright side for me....my boss took a one month vacation to visit his family in the middle east. Where is he right now? Beruit! He was supposed to fly back tomorrow and be back at work monday....not anymore!!
That sucks, heh. Have you heard from him at all?
not a peep. I don't care much....he's a major asshole ( I don't want him to get hurt/die or anything...I just downright don't like him). He went there wit his wife & 6 mo. old baby. All he can do is hunker down somewhere, and wait for all this to lighten up.
I sure hope your not posting this from work, Wait I hope you are.
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Post by Dregor Thule »

Stragi made 2 sane posts in a row, call Guiness! ;)

<3
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Post by Winnow »

Notice a pattern in the Lebanon sites that Israel is bombing?

airport
fueling station
t.v. stations
highways


This isn't about 2 kidnapped soldiers. Prepare for an all-out assault by Israel. It won't stop in Lebanon.
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Post by *~*stragi*~* »

Maybe they'll take over and become rich off oil so we can stop giving them money :>
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