Isfahan, prelude to "The Coming War"?

[Voronwë]

In January, Seymour Hirsch wrote aNew Yorker piecethat was what I thought was perhaps more heat than light entitled "The Coming Wars". Mr. Hirsch's writings on the war in Iraq have been beyond prescient.

VIENNA, Austria (CNN) -- Iran has broken the seals on equipment at an atomic processing facility amid Western fears Tehran could use its technology to build a nuclear bomb.

The move opens the uranium conversion plant at Isfahan in central Iran for full operation, a state-run news agency reported.

Mohammad Faidi, deputy director of international affairs of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said a U.N. representative was present when the seals were removed, the agency reported.

Tehran has said its atomic work is for peaceful purposes only.

A spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog would have preferred Iran not remove the seals and restart full operation at the plant.

though i have to give ti to Mr. Hirsch for affective (and effective) use of ë

It is possible that some of the American officials who talk about the need to eliminate Iran’s nuclear infrastructure are doing so as part of a propaganda campaign aimed at pressuring Iran to give up its weapons planning. If so, the signals are not always clear. President Bush, who after 9/11 famously depicted Iran as a member of the “axis of evil,” is now publicly emphasizing the need for diplomacy to run its course. “We don’t have much leverage with the Iranians right now,” the President said at a news conference late last year. “Diplomacy must be the first choice, and always the first choice of an administration trying to solve an issue of . . . nuclear armament. And we’ll continue to press on diplomacy.”

In my interviews over the past two months, I was given a much harsher view. The hawks in the Administration believe that it will soon become clear that the Europeans’ negotiated approach cannot succeed, and that at that time the Administration will act. “We’re not dealing with a set of National Security Council option papers here,” the former high-level intelligence official told me. “They’ve already passed that wicket. It’s not if we’re going to do anything against Iran. They’re doing it.”

i have a hard time believing the political will for a large scale operation against Iran exists in the US, but perhaps i undersestimate things.

[Nick]

Well I guess when you have one of the most richest and most violent nations on the planet straining at the leash to blow the everliving fuck out of you, it's not surprising someone might think it's a good idea to create a deterrent.

It also may keep Israel in check a little bit more.

Having said that, anyone who thinks it's still a good idea to create weapons that can blow up the only planet we have is just a fucking retard of the highest order, deterrent or not.

[Voronwë]

Israel is "on the record" saying they will not allow Iran to gain nuclear weapon capability....

[Nick]

Yeah, they are a nice bunch of fellows.

[Xorian]

Each time the nuclear question comes back on the table, i always wonder how nations with the nuclear weapon can deny this possession to other nations.

I mean, Israel won't allow Iran to have it but, hey look Israel has a nuclear weapon....even if Iran is maybe not the most moderate nation in the world i wouldn t say that there is no extremists in Israel's governement or politic crew.


Edit: Typo, grammar, etc...

[Animalor]

If you're in bed with the US, then you're allowed to own nukes.

[Jice Virago]

It will happen. Exxon just got a tax break to drill in fucking alaska of over 2 billion despite raking in over 7 billion in proffits last quarter alone and that went through with barely a wimper. As the Daily show predicted, our "exit strategy" from Iraq is through Iran (with maybe a detour into Syria along the way). When you consider all of the legitimate shit thats been pushed aside (DSM, Plamegate, Abu Garib, Gitmo, ect) there is really now way that we won't invade Iran. The Neocons weild too much power over the state, through controlled media and increased police powers, for them to not get their way anymore.

On a related note, did anyone open a window? I feel a Draft comming in!

[Sylvos]

If you're in bed with the US, then you're allowed to own nukes.

Yeah cause China, India and North Korea are totally our best of friends.

[Homercles]

Not to mention Pakistan.

Tight allies all

[Winnow]

Iran's Nuclear Plant will be taken out via air attack by either the U.S. or more likely Israel. What comes of it is anyone's guess.

Iran would put up more of a fight than Iraq but there is also a larger movement for democracy among the younger generation in Iran that would probably result in less insurgent activity afterwards.

We need to sweep through Iran, not stop, head to Syria for some spot attacks to weaken their army and infrastructure, and then get the hell out of the middle east and let Iran/Iraq crank their eternal war back up. Our strategy in the Middle East should be to execute ranged attacks on key military/nuclear targets when necessary and let the countries duke it out among themselves otherwise without interference...except Israel...need to keep them alive and kicking or they might go nuts with their nuclear option...plus Intel just started building a chip making plant there.

I'm all for sucking every last drop of oil out of the continental United States, Canada and Alaska. Seeing all of the new oil drilling sites might spur Americans and Canadians to actually make alternative energy a priority during elections.

[Aabidano]

Iran's Nuclear Plant will be taken out via air attack by either the U.S. or more likely Israel.

Iran has some goal in mind and they're waiting to bring it up in negotiations, or already have and the EU isn't going for it. They know better than to make Israel nervous and aren't in a position for a ground war. Also, they have no chance in any other encounter vs. the Israelis.

Iran would put up more of a fight than Iraq but there is also a larger movement for democracy among the younger generation in Iran that would probably result in less insurgent activity afterwards.

Iran is a large country with a large population, we'd be idiots to invade. Not saying the administration won't do it though. Want to create instant enemies where we have very few now? Invade their country.

Iran:
Population: 68,017,860 (July 2005 est.)
Area: 1.648 million sq km (Slightly larger than Alaska)
Economy: $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves

Iraq:
Population: 26,074,906 (July 2005 est.)
Area: 437,072 sq km
Economy at time of invasion: Non-existant

Leave Iran be, in 10 years it'll be a much different country as the people in now their 30s continue to enter the government. Which is also about the window it would take them to have a working nuke. Assuming we leave them alone at any rate.

Other than militarily, the US doesn't have any leverage against them due to our embargo of the last 20(?) years.

[Marbus]

Good post Z, I agree!

Marb

[Winnow]

Leave Iran be, in 10 years it'll be a much different country as the people in now their 30s continue to enter the government. Which is also about the window it would take them to have a working nuke. Assuming we leave them alone at any rate.

If a controversial election resulting in the election of the most fanatical candidate with ties to the U.S. hostage crisis in Iran are any indication, I have my doubts about your timeline of events and the direction the country is heading.

The students in Iran will need help. A ground invasion of Iran would be ugly but a continued air assault would do serious damage and weaken the government and cause some chaos. The bottom line is we can't leave Iran intact after having crushed their long time enemy in Iran. We need to balance things out a bit before leaving them to kill each other again like they seem to enjoy. Iran should be plenty mad at Iraq for invading Kuwait which forced the attention and physical presence of the United States in the region. As others have said, the U.S. wasn't about to do anything about some Kurds being killed or Iran and Iraq gassing each other. Oil, oil, oil, and homeland/western nation security is all that matters. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, assholes though they may be, give us a steady flow of oil and Iraq was threatening that along with sponsoring terrorism. Khadafy has changed his tune. Maybe other leaders will as well when they are palace hopping, dodging tomahawks.

Is it really that hard to understand? The U.S. wants a steady flow of oil from the Middle East, countries there to not invade other countries which threatens regional stability and oil flow, no sponsoring of terrorism, and that's it.

[Dalmoth_IO]

The oil must flow.

[Winnow]

Iran:
Population: 68,017,860 (July 2005 est.)
Area: 1.648 million sq km (Slightly larger than Alaska)
Economy: $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves

Iraq:
Population: 26,074,906 (July 2005 est.)
Area: 437,072 sq km
Economy at time of invasion: Non-existant

United States
Population: 295,734,134
Area: 9,631,418 sq km
Economy: purchasing power parity - $11.75 trillion
Industry: leading industrial power in the world, highly diversified and technologically advanced; petroleum, steel, motor vehicles, aerospace, telecommunications, chemicals, electronics, food processing, consumer goods, lumber, mining

Oil Production: 7.8 million bbl/day
Oil Consumption: 19.65 million bbl/day (oops! hello. that's why we're in the middle east folks)

Iran has 30 billion? That's like one really nice aircraft carrier.

I'll see your 30 billion and raise you 11 trillion.

Edit: on the same scale, Iran has about 500 billion.

[Animalor]

Not to mention Pakistan.

Tight allies all

Hence the pressures your government are putting on them to disarm and/or cockblocking their attempts to setup plants.

[Aabidano]

I'll see your 30 billion and raise you 11 trillion.

They live there, we'd have a 1500 mile supply and support chain. About all we'd accomplish is to generate more hate for us in a part of the world we can't realistically control anymore, and who's resources we'll need badly for at least 15 more years. Longer in all likelyhood.

*Edit - My point in posting the economic numbers was that we wouldn't be attacking an impoverished third world state. Iran has a decent economy and a reasonably large and modern military.

On the bright side, I don't think there'd be enough support in congress to make it happen.

[Jice Virago]

Since when is congressional support for anything a prerequisite for this administrations agenda?

[Nick]

Might wanna take another look at recent India/US relations there Vos.

[Kylere]

On the contrary Aabidano, Iraq has a modern and well equipped force compared to that fielded by Iraq in 1991. Not by comparison to the US, England, or even Israel. BTW anyone ever look at a table of German military spending as a percentage of GDP over the last 20 years?

[Aabidano]

"Having the ayatollah regime armed with nuclear weapons is an existential threat to the state of Israel," Mark Regev, senior spokeman at its foreign ministry, admitted grimly. "We take the issue extremely seriously.''

story at the Telegraph

[Metanis]

"Having the ayatollah regime armed with nuclear weapons is an existential threat to the state of Israel," Mark Regev, senior spokeman at its foreign ministry, admitted grimly. "We take the issue extremely seriously.''

story at the Telegraph

I realize it's difficult for the shallower people here like Nick... but just once try to imagine you are the leader of the Israeli people.

You there yet? Try harder.
--

Close enough I guess.
--

Now look at the tactical situation in the entire Middle East. You've got a lot of heavily armed (conventional arms only) neighbors who hate your guts. But you've got a pretty damn effective army yourself AND your ace in the hole is USA military support if the shit hits the fan.

Now, imagine the crazy mullahs in Iran obtaining nuclear capability that can decimate the tiny land area of Israel with perhaps only a few nukes AND in only minutes... much too quick for your friend the USA to bail you out.

Intolerable. Your entire existance is threatened beyond reason or acceptance. You will do whatever it takes to eliminate this threat.

--

OK Nick, you can put your head up your ass again...

[Sylvos]

Might wanna take another look at recent India/US relations there Vos.

Just because 90% of our tech support is there doesn't mean we are friends, just means we are fucking our own countries workforce!

[Nick]

I was referring to the new deal between India and the US whereby the Bush administration is closening ties and sharing information regarding Nuclear weapons so India has the ultimate power of keeping China under control/fear etc.

All done on the 60th anniversary of the Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombings, well, I suppose you have to admire Bush's Bill Hicks comic style for irony.

Metanis, in response to your ridiculous post - go eat pieces of shit for breakfast.

Toodles

[Voronwë]

this looks like a good time to offer US citizenship for military service.

wasnt that successful for the Romans?

[masteen]

this looks like a good time to offer US citizenship for military service.

wasnt that successful for the Romans?

Only if you consider the conquest of Germania, Africa, Egypt, and Anatolia "success."

[Voronwë]

we may see that the reports of the death of imperialism were premature perhaps!

[Nick]

IMPERIALISM?!?!?1 NOWADAYS?!?!?!1

That's preemptorarily preposterous!