Election Results Incoming

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archeiron
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Post by archeiron »

Pherr the Dorf wrote:It's all about Ohio now, most of Bush's precincts are closed, and there are OMGIAMRETARDEDCAUSEALOTISTWOWORDS of votes in those cities left to be counted
3/4 of the way complete in Ohio and the gap has closed to 120,000. This will be damn close either way.
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Post by Pherr the Dorf »

With an easy 60K going to be made up in Cuyahoga alone, this will be very very close
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Post by Kaldaur »

CNN just called Arizona and Florida for Bush.
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Post by Sirton »

Very possible Pherr this is like 20 times better than the World Series!!

2,138,704 Bush

2,013,039 Kerry

76% precincts reporting

Im looking through the county voting atm...Id say the chances for Kerry are slim. but still possible. I can see him coming within 50k votes atm.

One thing to add Bush still doesnt need Ohio to win......Wisconsin. Iowa, New Mexico, Hawaii are all possible alternatives to amekup for it.
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Post by Brotha »

Just read this on the NR blog (NR=very conservative, this is just an opinion, take it for what it's worth):
OHIO [Jim Robbins]
According to Susan Estrich, Kerry campaign believs it will come down to Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland). Gore won it with 63% in 2000. Kerry currently has 63% with 2/3 of the precincts counted. They also said the 130,000 vote gap would close to 30,000. Since then the Bush lead has expanded to 150,000 votes with 70% in.
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Post by Forthe »

269 tie. Bush gets Ohio and Kerry takes Nevada and New Mexico.
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Post by Sirton »

Hmm intrsting that could happen Forthe...I hope it doenst....It is something the US hopefully doesnt have to deal with.....I really just want a Win one way or another, of coarse prefer Bush :)
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Post by archeiron »

Forthe wrote:269 tie. Bush gets Ohio and Kerry takes Nevada and New Mexico.
Bush takes Ohio and NM for the win is the best bet at this point. 271 to 267
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Post by Brotha »

Fox calling Ohio for Bush.
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Post by archeiron »

Brotha wrote:Fox calling Ohio for Bush.
85% (700K+ outstanding) of the votes counted and 90K difference in the numbers tells me that Fox is being incredibly responsible. :roll:
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Post by Forthe »

With the gap in the popular vote as it is Bush should win.
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Post by Sirton »

Bush Is going to win. Ohio is gonna goto him and either or both nevada or new mexico are gonna go for him. Bush is gonna win popular vote too.
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Post by Zaelath »

Based on current standings..

Bush: 274
Kerry: 264

and the Australian w/ the win in the pool :P
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Post by archeiron »

Zaelath wrote:Based on current standings..

Bush: 274
Kerry: 264

and the Australian w/ the win in the pool :P
Actually, it is now looking worse for Kerry. Bush just might win Iowa and Nevada. I blame Thess for not voting enough in NV. :(
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Post by Rekaar. »

it's getting very very quiet here
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Post by Lohrno »

:-x

We are so fucked. You have no idea.
It looks like Bush won. Hope you guys enjoy Spring Break in Fallujah.
I hope some sensiblbe country pre-emptively nukes us to prevent the nuclear war that will likely start.

-=Lohrno
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Post by Zaelath »

Yes... well, it should be interesting to see what the emporer does with his "mandate" from the people, and no worries about re-election.

In an ideal world all the people that voted for Howard here would migrate to the US and I'm happy to welcome your liberal pussies in Australia :)

Just think, you'd have more beaches, a 60/40 female/male ratio, and a higher average IQ!
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Post by Aaeamdar »

Well, that's a bit far I think. :) Things don't look good for Kerry though. I am not sure Bush can really fuck things up internationally any more than he has, so while I am certainly disapointed if this likely result holds, I don't think its really the end of the US. Win or lose for Kerry, its a loss from my perspective. The neocon bible thumpers showed they have a ton of support, both in the Republican party and in America. 11 "don't let those fags marry" initiatives passed. That's probably sign enough that the Dems need to pump up the bigotry themselves to have a hope.

The one "hope" left is that after Bush wins, and appoints his Supreme Court, it won't just be fag rights removed. I'll stand by my RvW is overturned prediction if Bush holds on and hopefully that will scare enough bigotted women into realizing that they can't afford to let people like that stay in. We'll see.
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Post by Aaeamdar »

"mandate" from the people
I still hold out hope that Bush loses because of the electoral college, but I don't think its fair to put "mandate" in quotes. I think Bush does have a mandate. Its a mandate I don't like, to be sure, but win or lose, Bush has a mandate as much or more so than any president I can recall other than Reagan. He will clearly win the popular vote by a larger margin than any president since Reagan.
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Post by Trias »

Lohrno wrote::-x

We are so fucked. You have no idea.
It looks like Bush won. Hope you guys enjoy Spring Break in Fallujah.
I hope some sensiblbe country pre-emptively nukes us to prevent the nuclear war that will likely start.

-=Lohrno
wtf?
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Post by Animalor »

Lohrno wrote::-x

We are so fucked. You have no idea.
It looks like Bush won. Hope you guys enjoy Spring Break in Fallujah.
I hope some sensiblbe country pre-emptively nukes us to prevent the nuclear war that will likely start.

-=Lohrno
Agreed, however since you've elected tweedledum into office, the whole world is fucked as well.

And being Bush's last term, he has nothing to lose this time either. Any restraint he might've had last term will be gone now.
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Post by Xzion »

Hopefully we can find some good law suite or this stupid fucking moron will be re-elected...we better start working on an impeachment case soon

Theres a damn, damn good chance, i dont give a fuck how rove or anyone else trys to lie and spin it to win a re-election of a draft, and i for one would rather rot in a jail cell then fight for this war mongering cowards personal agenda
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Post by Raistin »

I have lost my faith in the American people.Jesus, you've got to be kidding me.
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Post by Sargeras »

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/ ... index.html
Ohio official: Count could take 11 days
Final results also delayed in New Mexico, Iowa
Wednesday, November 3, 2004 Posted: 4:51 AM EST (0951 GMT)

(CNN) -- Just as it was four years earlier, the 2004 presidential vote couldn't be settled on Election Night.

Sen. John Kerry's campaign refused to concede early Wednesday, arguing that more than 250,000 provisional and absentee ballots remained to be counted in the key battleground state of Ohio.

New Mexico will not release presidential election results until later Wednesday because thousands of absentee ballots remain uncounted, according to a spokesman for the secretary of state.

The vote also remained unsettled in Iowa, where broken machines, a delay in opening absentee ballots and a delay in the arrival of other absentee ballots were slowing completion of the secretary of state's final count in the presidential election, elections officials said early Wednesday.

But Kerry's presidential hopes appeared to hang on the outcome of the vote in Ohio.

"We've waited four years for this victory," Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards, told supporters in Boston. "We can wait one more night."

But Ohio's top election official said those ballots would not be counted for 11 days, and he urged Americans to "take a deep breath and relax."

With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Kerry trailed President Bush in Ohio by about 125,000 votes out of more than 5.2 million cast. But in a statement early Wednesday, Kerry campaign chief Mary Beth Cahill said, "The vote count in Ohio has not been completed."

"There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted," Cahill said. "We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio."

Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell told CNN he could not immediately give an estimate of the number of those ballots, but he said 250,000 might not be out of the realm of possibility.

Blackwell said that by law, provisional and absentee ballots won't be counted until 11 days after the election.

"This is a very deliberate and cautious process," he told CNN. "And so, you know, I tell everybody just take a deep breath and relax. We can't predict what the results are going to be. We can only guarantee you you're going to get an honest and fair count through our bipartisan system."

Ohio's two U.S. senators, both Republicans, issued a statement through the Bush campaign calling on Kerry to concede the state.

"Based on our experience in Ohio politics, we believe that the president's lead in Ohio is clear and that it cannot be surmounted," Sens. Mike DeWine and George Voinovich said. "Sen. Kerry should concede defeat and spare the country the turmoil of another drawn-out election."

But Blackwell, a Republican, told reporters at a 2 a.m. news conference that Ohio has used provisional ballots for a decade, and election officials know how to handle them.

"The system can handle a close election," he said. "It means that you might not know immediately -- but when you know, you will know that you have a result that is worthy of the full confidence of the folks who participated in the process today."

With 20 electoral votes, Ohio was among the most hotly contested states in Tuesday's election. Neither candidate appeared likely to claim the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency while its results remained up in the air.

While Blackwell said the exact number of provisional ballots was unknown, he said it is "trending toward 175,000."

"We will not know, and nobody knows how many provisional ballots we have had cast until all of the tabulations have come in from across the state," he said.

On absentee ballots, Blackwell spokesman Carlo LoParo said the secretary of state's office will not know how many were returned until after the election, when county election officials send in their numbers.

A federal judge Tuesday ruled that Ohio voters who had requested but had not received absentee ballots must be allowed to cast provisional ballots at the polls. But District Court Judge David Katz did not order that the state must count the provisional ballots, leaving that to be decided at a later date.

Katz's ruling required the state to provide a provisional ballot to anyone who requested one.

Blackwell has directed county boards of elections to count only those provisional ballots that were cast in the correct precinct, and not those from voters who cast them outside of their home precinct.

The open question, said CNN legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin, is whether the Kerry team will also ask for a recount of all ballots. Since most were punch cards, he said, we could be looking at chads again.

Iowa hit by vote-count woes
In Iowa, two central-count machines -- used to read paper ballots by optical scanners in Greene and Harrison counties -- broke down, said Charles Krogmeier, deputy secretary of state.

The machine in Harrison County was repaired, but the machine in Greene had to await repair or replacement by its maker, Elections Systems & Software, in Omaha, Nebraska. Results were expected by 8 a.m. (9 a.m. ET).

Harrison County tends to skew Republican and has 9,796 voters.

In addition, Lee County -- in the southeast corner of the state -- was still opening its 6,800 absentee ballots early Wednesday, said Krogmeier. So too was Montgomery County, which had 517 absentee ballots, he said.

Both counties were expected to complete their work overnight, he said.

Another wild card is the 60,000 absentee ballots that were requested but have not yet been returned, he said.

As long as those absentee ballots were postmarked on or before November 1 and are received by noon Monday, November 8, they will be counted, he said.

And about 10,000 provisional ballots will be counted Thursday, said Secretary of State Chet Culver.

"We have to be patient and we have to let the process work," he said.

Florida official: Absentee count may last days
Florida voters cast an "incredible number" of absentee ballots in Tuesday's presidential election, and counting them may take until Thursday, Secretary of State Glenda Hood said Tuesday night.

Hood said only about 30,000 of the 94,000 absentee ballots received in heavily Democratic Miami-Dade County had been counted, and officials were pulling in "extra staff" to complete the count by noon Thursday, the deadline by which counties must complete the unofficial canvass of all votes.

Broward County, north of Miami and also heavily Democratic, had 92,000 absentee ballots requested, Hood said, but the count of the ballots that were returned may be completed overnight.

Palm Beach County began counting its absentee ballots Friday. In that county, 70,000 absentee ballots were received, Hood said.

Hood said workers will continue tallying the votes around the clock until the process is completed.

With about 99 percent of the precincts reporting in Florida's Senate race, former Bush administration Housing and Urban Affairs Secretary Mel Martinez, a Republican, held a nearly 72,000-vote lead over Betty Castor, for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Bob Graham. But Castor refused to concede, citing uncounted votes.

CNN's Alanne Orjoux, Tom Watkins, Paul Varian, Deborah Feyerick, Susan Candiotti, Adaora Udoji, Chris Mould and Fran Fifis contributed to this report.
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Post by Xzion »

Raistin wrote:I have lost my faith in the American people.Jesus, you've got to be kidding me.
heh, wait till you go to europe, we will be the laughing stock of that continent for at least 10 more years
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Post by Forthe »

Unless you can prove massive fraud you should just accept the result, thats how this shit works. 51% is indeed a mandate. Kerry should have conceded before I woke up.

Now the world has to accept that the US' actions were not just the result of a rogue government but the will of the people.
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Post by Zaelath »

Yeah, scary. Kinda blurs the line between the enemy and civilians...
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Post by Animale »

Well, looks like we successfully elected our handbasket.

Hope the folks who elected it don't mind where its headed.

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Post by Mr Bacon »

Pardon me while I stab myself in the head and hope the ambulance doesn't come in time.
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Post by Lynks »

WHat the hell is wrong with you people. I hpoe that the people who elected him can't sleep at night. Their vote means that they agreed with the slaughters in Iraq. Their blood is on your hands.
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Post by Animalor »

I think it funny that the color used for Bush is red. The tide of blood has indeed swept over the heartland of america.
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

I slept like a baby. Thanks for caring.

People bitched and moaned about Bush not winning the popular vote. 3.5 million more people for Bush this time. I think I speak for everyone, okay maybe just myself, when I say.....stfu.
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Post by masteen »

I'm pretty impressed with voter turnout this election. I think the fact that so many people turned out and the closeness of the election should send a message to the GOP overlords that Americans are not totally satisfied with the job they are doing.

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Post by Kilmoll the Sexy »

I think it is quite nice that he won this election more handily than he did in 2000. Being the liberal party though, you can count on lawsuits being filed until well into 2005 to fuck things up.
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Post by Voronwë »

There won't be any lawsuits.

The latest Ohio count is Bush by 136,483 votes which is more than the number of provisional ballots still in play I believe, which means Bush wins Ohio and the election is over.

I am only going by an email I just got, not by any official official announcement. Kerry camp making a statement at 10am, so i imagine that will be the concession speech. but that is all my personal speculation.
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Post by Cartalas »

Rellix wrote:Bush is leading popularly only because the west coast's polls haven't closed yet.

Guess that theory is gone.
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Post by Cartalas »

Xzion wrote:
Raistin wrote:I have lost my faith in the American people.Jesus, you've got to be kidding me.
heh, wait till you go to europe, we will be the laughing stock of that continent for at least 10 more years

Until they need help from us.
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Post by Voronwë »

I think it is obvious that the Democratic Party's base is too narrow. They are working on an outdated approach to the population dynamic. A huge chunk of the population is comfortable with a very conservative social agenda, and people like "us" need to get used to that.

To compete the Democrats need to radically redesign the manner in which they appeal to non-urban white persons, and in a manner that will probably include moving to a more moderate position on some issues. Many of these people vote against their economic interests to side with Republicans, and the Democrats let them do it almost without contesting those votes.

A lot of people voted for Kerry simply because he wasn't George Bush. That is not good enough, because you have to have a message that is clearly communicated and resonates with people.

Terry McAuliffe needs to be canned for starters.
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Post by Funkmasterr »

It's called grasping for straws. The liberals just can't believe that not everyone hates bush like they thought. So they go for the lawsuits to try and disprove reality instead of accepting it. And they threaten to move to canada ( I wish they would, I get sick of hearing that threat.), or say that people that voted for Bush are uneducated instead of just accepting that these people did make an educated decision and just don't agree with you.

I can't tell you how many people that I talked to between the ages of 18-25 around here in minnesota could tell me that they were voting kerry and did not like bush, but could not give me reasons why. Lots of young people and minorities voted for kerry because P. Diddy told them to "vote or die" or because they didn't like bush, both poor reasons to vote for someone.

Anyhow, I am fully prepared to take the verbal bashing some of the flower children here are going to throw at me for not thinking like them, but all I can say in conclusion is, I hope John Kerry crawls back into the ketchup jar he crawled out of, and stays there.
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Post by Akaran_D »

I hope John Kerry crawls back into the ketchup jar he crawled out of, and stays there
I feel today is going to be a good day for hotdogs roasted over an open fire.
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Post by vn_Tanc »

or say that people that voted for Bush are uneducated instead of just accepting that these people did make an educated decision and just don't agree with you
The number of voters I saw quoted as saying a vote for Bush was a vote for fiscal responsibility gives lie to this statement.

In the prediction poll I voted for a close vote with Bush edging it. Kerry just didn't have enough of anything to overcome the inertia of the incumbent. It was obvious his lack of punch wasn't going to sway enough undecided voters, the vast majority of which will stick with what then know provided their own lot doesn't suck too hard because of him.
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Post by Chidoro »

Dems are in trouble. Daschle is gone, Edwards' seat went elephant, and at least four house seats were lost. They just aren't resonating a message that invokes passion. People don't seem to care about their official's record, just if they inspire them in some way. Doesn't matter what the hell the facts are, an unlawful war, porous borders and shipping yards, a lost job term, an average cost of living drop in the middle class, whatever. Just didn't matter to bible-thumpers and ignoramouses. It was a totally emotional campaign run by Bush because his record sucked. And it worked.

I'm not really sure what the Dems can do in the near future. I guess people can't be lulled by facts and figures. If morals is a chief decider for Bush voters(the definition of ironic quite frankly), Dems are going to have to create they own moral platforms, maybe corrupt CEO's flaunting under Bush policies for example. It needs to piss people off. It needs to scare them. Scare them on the environmental butchering, scare them on steel. Scare them on things they can relate to. While most college graduates+ voted for Kerry, they need the High School and under people too. Simple scare shit seems to work.

we're screwed
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Post by Sirton »

If Dems wanted to win.........First Off Kerry should of never Selected Edwards, that was a poison pill. He did nothing to help the ticket, cause Kerry wasnt going to carry the South even if Bill Clinton was his VP.......I mean Drs. and almost the entire business communities hated that ticket as soon as they heard that name, hes been a known enemy of ours for a long time.

He should of selected Gephart(sp) and carried Missouri along with him and would of had some legit. of being moderate. The Dem's primary's screw em cause the Liberal wing of the party is strong in the primarys, but they are totally weak nationally. Look at the Census reports and youll see what Im saying. There are much more people who associate themself as conservative than Liberal.

Now Daschle is gone who is moderate and I actually sorta liked, and Im a republican, and almost every moderate Dem senator has lost mainly due to the liberal party of the Dems. Listen to Carvel...heheh
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Post by Chidoro »

This was a pretty good opinion piece that goes into some interesting issues

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/03/opini ... _popular_1
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Post by *~*stragi*~* »

who won the election?
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Post by Kilmoll the Sexy »

Badnarik.
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Post by Animalor »

Stragi wrote:who won the election?
We'll know that in 2-6 weeks.
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Post by Voronwë »

Stragi wrote:who won the election?
basically it boils down to one major question in Ohio that splits into sub questions.


1. How many provisional ballots were cast?

If the answer is less than 150,000 George Bush definitely won
If the answer is between 150,000 and 200,000 George Bush probably won
If the answer is close to 250,000 then the following has to be the case for Kerry to win:
lets assume 80% are validated (same number as were validated in 2000), then that means 200,000 votes were cast.

about 170,000 of those will have to be for Kerry, so basically 85% of them.

so that is pretty damn unlikely.


so unless there is some information that the Kerry campaign is looking at that the public isn't thinking about right now, I really think the election is over.

Its fine with me if they want to wait a few more hours to make sure they feel comfortable with the result, there is no need to rush.
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Post by Mr Bacon »

Cartalas wrote:
Rellix wrote:Bush is leading popularly only because the west coast's polls haven't closed yet.

Guess that theory is gone.
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Post by Sirton »

VOTE BY RACE BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

White (77%) 57% +3 42% 1%

African-American (11%) 11% +2 89% 0%

Latino (9%) 42% +7 55% 2%

Asian (2%) 41% +0 59% *

Other (1%) 40% +1 55% 2%




VOTE BY AGE
BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

18-29 (17%) 44% -2 54% 1%



HAVE YOU EVER VOTED BEFORE? BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

No (11%) 45% +2 54% 1%

Yes (89%) 50% +2 49% 1%





VOTE BY RELIGION BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Protestant (53%) 58% +2 41% 0%

Catholic (27%) 51% +4 48% 1%

Jewish (3%) 24% +5 76% *

Other (7%) 23% -5 74% 3%

None (10%) 30% +0 68% 1%




VOTE BY CHURCH ATTENDANCE BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

More Than Weekly (16%) 63% +44 35% 1%

Weekly (26%) 58% +25 41% 1%

Monthly (14%) 50% +37 50% *

A Few Times a Year (28%) 44% +20 55% 1%

Never (15%) 34% +25 64% 2%





VOTE BY RELIGION BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Protestant (53%) 58% +2 41% 0%

Catholic (27%) 51% +4 48% 1%

Jewish (3%) 24% +5 76% *

Other (7%) 23% -5 74% 3%

None (10%) 30% +0 68% 1%




HAVE YOU EVER SERVED IN THE MILITARY? BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Yes (18%) 57% n/a 42% 1%

No (82%) 48% n/a 51% 1%




MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Taxes (5%) 56% n/a 44% 0%

Education (4%) 25% n/a 75% *

Iraq (15%) 25% n/a 74% 0%

Terrorism (19%) 86% n/a 14% 0%

Economy/Jobs (20%) 18% n/a 80% 1%

Moral Values (22%) 79% n/a 18% 2%

Health Care (8%) 22% n/a 78% *



YOUR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT WAS MOSTLY... BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

For Your Candidate (69%) 58% n/a 41% 1%

Against His Opponent (25%) 29% n/a 71% 0%



IS IRAQ WAR PART OF WAR ON TERRORISM? BUSH KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Yes (54%) 80% n/a 19% 0%

No (43%) 11% n/a 88% 1%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/ ... lls.0.html

Bush gained huge like I predicted in the Latino Community and Jewish community then slightly among Catholics and Blacks voters.

Example of 5 latino people I helped in the polling booth all 5 were Bush supporters that I noticed.....Then a black lady was sitting in the poll booth almost 30 min changing from Bush to Kerry the rest of her ticket Democrat...She had me show her how to reset her stuff multiple times between the two cause she didnt know how to work the machines, and I tried to show her several times till she was able to see how they work. She eventually stuck with Kerry I think, but there was a major conflict as you can notice.
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