If Bush is elected...
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Akaran_D
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If Bush is elected...
What do you think will happen within the next 3 months of his term -and- do you think that there will be further litigation problems as we saw in the last election?
Akaran of Mistmoore, formerly Akaran of Veeshan
I know I'm good at what I do, but I know I'm not the best.
But I guess that on the other hand, I could be like the rest.
I know I'm good at what I do, but I know I'm not the best.
But I guess that on the other hand, I could be like the rest.
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Jice Virago
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A lot depends on the nature of how Bush "wins" the election. In the highly unlikely event that Bush wins by a large margin with no meaningful hanky panky, then I think the only real challenges to the validity of his presidency will come from people trying to stymie his war proffiteering antics by using legal hassle as a distraction. Such a reaction would peter out fast, considering Bush would be, presumably, elected by the people.
The far more likely (and worrisome) scenario is Bush winning a narrow (or perhaps even landslide) victory with numerous questionable goings on. Some of this has already been predicted and some of it has already been occuring, such as:
1) Illegal Disenfranchising of Vote Registration- Its happening again in Florida, with the special racial profiling system Jeb put in place. Jeb even had the balls to put police roadblocks near voting locations that intimidated minority voters who were car pooling.
Its also occuring in Nevada, where a GOP leaning registration company has been caught tossing out democratic registration forms. Some poorer voting districts were woefully understaffed last time out and turned vast numbers of voters away as a result.
There have also been attempts by both sides to confuse voters as to what day they are supposed to be voting. There are plenty of other shady things happening to prevent people from legally voting that most people have not heard reported.
2) Vote Tabulation Errors- Deibold is a heavy contributor to the GOP. They also corner the market on federal electronic voting machines. Despite numerous demonstrations of their systems falibility (and even susceptability to intrusion and undetectable alteration) they have flatly refused to provide paper backup of their electronic voting tabulation.
Factor in two rescent landslide GOP victories in states that heavily use these machines (one of them by a former board member of Deibold who ran in a state he never resided in prior to the election) that contradicted strong exit polling, and you have a pretty serious cloud of suspicion about these machines. Remember also that Ws campain manager in 2k was the guy who certified him in Florida, in the middle of all the questionable goings on.
3) Using National Security Aparatus to affect the outcome of the vote- Welcome to vague color coded terror warnings and claims by the Chenney that electing Kerry will directly result in more terrorist attacks on the US. If a state of terror alert is declared during the counting process and W magically comes up the victor, you can bet a lot of people are going to be calling shennanigans.
In this scenario, you will have the floodgates openned on the legal apparatus of the US. Every single voting count will be fought over, with W plying his inside connections to the Supreme Court the entire way, as was done last time. Media Spin Control will be in full effect on both sides, but expect Fox to go over the top with it.
Were W to again lose the popular vote and then win the electoral count, I think there is a very real chance of some serious civil unrest, especially if the "win" is in any way questionable. It is certainly within the realm of possibility in a number of ways. Remeber also that electoral college members are not required to vote their party line (though only two have ever done it in history) and the conspiracy nut in me wonders if the money machine behind Bush wouldn't consider greasing some palms among these people to secure the win, since four more years under the patriot act will probably let them establish near total control over the country. Realistically, with so many of our reserves overextended in action in Iraq, any attempt at martial law by W and friends would be unfeasable. We could, potentially, see a second american revolution happen.
---------however.....
The real question you have to ask yourself is:
What will the neocon inner circle of the Bush Administration do between the time they lose the election and Kerry getting sworn in? Remember that Bush Sr was so bitter about Clinton's victory that he (in an unprecedented move) ordered all his administration people to quit the day he left officer, or be fired anyhow. This was really the political equivalent of scorched earth policy, and was really a big beauracratic dick in the ass of the first two years of Clintons presidency. Given the sheer evil of some of these guys and their blatant disregard of the public welfare, I envision them pressing hard to make things as fucked up as possible in the short time they have remaining, thereby making the 2k8 election much more viable to win (and getting more political capitol with the business elite that back them) since no man on earth could possibly clean up such a shitstorm with a gridlocked partisan congress.
As it is, I can't see Kerry going more than a single term anyhow, just with all the existing problems W and Co. have created. If the true conservative core of the GOP actually takes their fucking party back over in the wake of GW's loss and puts a McCain and/or Julliani up there in 2k8, they are virtually assured of winning at this point (if Kerry wins this one) because they can lock up congress and let all the mess Bush made drag Kerry down into the shitter. Given some of the rumblings that the more traditional conservatives have been making, I think a loss by W will pretty much assure a small revolution within the GOP to remove the Fundie Crispies and the Neocons out of any real power in the party. This would be a really good thing.
The far more likely (and worrisome) scenario is Bush winning a narrow (or perhaps even landslide) victory with numerous questionable goings on. Some of this has already been predicted and some of it has already been occuring, such as:
1) Illegal Disenfranchising of Vote Registration- Its happening again in Florida, with the special racial profiling system Jeb put in place. Jeb even had the balls to put police roadblocks near voting locations that intimidated minority voters who were car pooling.
Its also occuring in Nevada, where a GOP leaning registration company has been caught tossing out democratic registration forms. Some poorer voting districts were woefully understaffed last time out and turned vast numbers of voters away as a result.
There have also been attempts by both sides to confuse voters as to what day they are supposed to be voting. There are plenty of other shady things happening to prevent people from legally voting that most people have not heard reported.
2) Vote Tabulation Errors- Deibold is a heavy contributor to the GOP. They also corner the market on federal electronic voting machines. Despite numerous demonstrations of their systems falibility (and even susceptability to intrusion and undetectable alteration) they have flatly refused to provide paper backup of their electronic voting tabulation.
Factor in two rescent landslide GOP victories in states that heavily use these machines (one of them by a former board member of Deibold who ran in a state he never resided in prior to the election) that contradicted strong exit polling, and you have a pretty serious cloud of suspicion about these machines. Remember also that Ws campain manager in 2k was the guy who certified him in Florida, in the middle of all the questionable goings on.
3) Using National Security Aparatus to affect the outcome of the vote- Welcome to vague color coded terror warnings and claims by the Chenney that electing Kerry will directly result in more terrorist attacks on the US. If a state of terror alert is declared during the counting process and W magically comes up the victor, you can bet a lot of people are going to be calling shennanigans.
In this scenario, you will have the floodgates openned on the legal apparatus of the US. Every single voting count will be fought over, with W plying his inside connections to the Supreme Court the entire way, as was done last time. Media Spin Control will be in full effect on both sides, but expect Fox to go over the top with it.
Were W to again lose the popular vote and then win the electoral count, I think there is a very real chance of some serious civil unrest, especially if the "win" is in any way questionable. It is certainly within the realm of possibility in a number of ways. Remeber also that electoral college members are not required to vote their party line (though only two have ever done it in history) and the conspiracy nut in me wonders if the money machine behind Bush wouldn't consider greasing some palms among these people to secure the win, since four more years under the patriot act will probably let them establish near total control over the country. Realistically, with so many of our reserves overextended in action in Iraq, any attempt at martial law by W and friends would be unfeasable. We could, potentially, see a second american revolution happen.
---------however.....
The real question you have to ask yourself is:
What will the neocon inner circle of the Bush Administration do between the time they lose the election and Kerry getting sworn in? Remember that Bush Sr was so bitter about Clinton's victory that he (in an unprecedented move) ordered all his administration people to quit the day he left officer, or be fired anyhow. This was really the political equivalent of scorched earth policy, and was really a big beauracratic dick in the ass of the first two years of Clintons presidency. Given the sheer evil of some of these guys and their blatant disregard of the public welfare, I envision them pressing hard to make things as fucked up as possible in the short time they have remaining, thereby making the 2k8 election much more viable to win (and getting more political capitol with the business elite that back them) since no man on earth could possibly clean up such a shitstorm with a gridlocked partisan congress.
As it is, I can't see Kerry going more than a single term anyhow, just with all the existing problems W and Co. have created. If the true conservative core of the GOP actually takes their fucking party back over in the wake of GW's loss and puts a McCain and/or Julliani up there in 2k8, they are virtually assured of winning at this point (if Kerry wins this one) because they can lock up congress and let all the mess Bush made drag Kerry down into the shitter. Given some of the rumblings that the more traditional conservatives have been making, I think a loss by W will pretty much assure a small revolution within the GOP to remove the Fundie Crispies and the Neocons out of any real power in the party. This would be a really good thing.
War is an option whose time has passed. Peace is the only option for the future. At present we occupy a treacherous no-man's-land between peace and war, a time of growing fear that our military might has expanded beyond our capacity to control it and our political differences widened beyond our ability to bridge them. . . .
Short of changing human nature, therefore, the only way to achieve a practical, livable peace in a world of competing nations is to take the profit out of war.
--RICHARD M. NIXON, "REAL PEACE" (1983)
"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, represents, in the final analysis, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children."
Dwight Eisenhower
Short of changing human nature, therefore, the only way to achieve a practical, livable peace in a world of competing nations is to take the profit out of war.
--RICHARD M. NIXON, "REAL PEACE" (1983)
"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, represents, in the final analysis, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children."
Dwight Eisenhower
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Kaldaur
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Jice summed it up better than I can. If Bush is elected by a clear majority, I think the tone might calm down a little. However, I have never seen the country this divided. I cannot think that all this rabid anti-Bush or anti-Kerry sentiment will drain away when one of them is elected.
And if there is civil unrest in the event of shady dealings, god help us. This country has a nuclear salvo that could torch the whole world, and I'd hate to think of a revolution with those weapons up for grabs.
And if there is civil unrest in the event of shady dealings, god help us. This country has a nuclear salvo that could torch the whole world, and I'd hate to think of a revolution with those weapons up for grabs.
