Bush apparently leads Kerry in pre-debate poll (CNN)

[Winnow]

Nice article on the latest election poll. With the majority of Americans saying they'd support Bush if he wanted to send more troops to Iraq, I think that spells doom for Kerry. I highlighted some points that aren't promising for Kerry.

(CNN) -- Headed into their first face-to-face debate, President Bush appears to be leading Democratic Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, with a clearer edge among registered voters.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that among likely voters, Bush was the choice of 52 percent, while Kerry was the choice of 44 percent and independent Ralph Nader garnered 3 percent. That result was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In the broader category of registered voters, 53 percent supported Bush; 42 percent, Kerry; and 3 percent, Nader. That question had the same margin of error.

The poll was taken from Friday through Sunday, at the end of a week in which Kerry ratcheted up his criticism of Bush's Iraq policy.

On Thursday, the two men will debate in Miami, Florida, focusing on foreign affairs, during which Iraq is likely to be front and center.

Although the poll showed Americans divided almost evenly over whether they approve of the president's Iraq policy, 55 percent said it was not a mistake to send U.S. troops there, compared with 42 percent who thought it was a mistake.

And a majority, 53 percent, said they would support Bush if he wanted to send still more troops to Iraq.

Asked which man would better handle the situation in Iraq, 55 percent said Bush and 41 percent said Kerry. Two months ago, they were tied on that question.

The poll also showed Bush's job approval rating at 54 percent -- the highest since January -- and it found increased public approval for the president's handling of the economy, terrorism, the situation in Iraq and foreign affairs.

Among likely voters, 49 percent also said they believe Kerry would lead the country in the wrong direction, compared with just 44 percent who thought he would lead it in the right direction. But 54 percent of likely voters thought Bush would take America in the right direction; only 44 thought he would move the country in the wrong direction.

In the poll, Bush got higher marks than Kerry on handling the economy, Iraq and terrorism.

And asked which man would better handle relations with other countries, Bush -- charged by his critics with alienating the world community through unilateralism -- beat his Democratic challenger by a 52 percent to 44 percent margin.

Although half of those polled said the outcome of the election would have no effect on whether there is another terrorist attack in the United States, 31 percent said they think chances of an attack would be reduced if Bush were re-elected. Only 16 percent said they thought the chances of an attack would be reduced if Kerry was elected.

Kerry's military service in Vietnam -- which he showcased at the Democratic National Convention but has since come under attack by a group called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth -- has become less of an asset, the poll found.

the latest poll, 19 percent of registered voters said Kerry's service made them more likely to vote for Kerry, down from 41 percent at the beginning of August, right after the Democratic convention.

The poll also found that the dispute over Kerry's antiwar activism after the Vietnam War is having more of a negative effect on his candidacy than questions about Bush's National Guard service are having on his electability.

A third of likely voters said Kerry's antiwar activity made them less likely to vote for him, compared with 49 percent who said it would have no effect. In contrast, 69 percent of likely voters said questions about Bush's Guard service would have no effect on their vote, compared with 23 percent who said it made them less likely to vote for the president.

[Midnyte_Ragebringer]

I love the title...."apparently"????

You can almost hear the disgust in their "non-partisan" voice.

[Marbus]

NO they say apparently because it's just a poll based upon radom selection, this particular one has a margin of +/- 4%. That means Bush could actually have 48 and Kerry could have 48%, take away Nader and Kerry could be ahead as in the CSM poll taken today as well. It's interesting to note that they many of these polls don't give the population the of the test group. If they only called 500 or 1000 people, even at random, it's not very "scientific"... that is why they are saying apparently

Marb

[Midnyte_Ragebringer]

NO they say apparently because it's just a poll based upon radom selection, this particular one has a margin of +/- 4%. That means Bush could actually have 48 and Kerry could have 48%, take away Nader and Kerry could be ahead as in the CSM poll taken today as well. It's interesting to note that they many of these polls don't give the population the of the test group. If they only called 500 or 1000 people, even at random, it's not very "scientific"... that is why they are saying apparently

Marb

uh huh

[Kelshara]

Those damn liberal media!

[Sylvus]

And, as we've discussed ad nauseum, polls are not accurate. They do not poll cell phone users. There are 160 Million cell phones in the US, and many people (myself and my 4 roommates included, as well as almost all of my friends) use nothing other than a cell phone.

I am going going to speculate as to which candidate that segment of the population will support, I'm only trying to point out that the polls are probably ignoring a large number of people. It could be that Bush is ahead by a lot more than that, it could be that Kerry is in fact ahead, or it could be that the poll got lucky and is exactly right. The point is that with the potential of a large statistical error in their sample, it's difficult to trust any polls.

[Kilmoll the Sexy]

They probably don't get retards in their polls either....who are obviously for Kerry!

[Sylvus]

Not all of them, apparently.

[Kilmoll the Sexy]

I forgot about Midynte. Sorry.

[Midnyte_Ragebringer]

I forgot about Midynte. Sorry.

haha

[kyoukan]

even in a pro bush article the neocon tards whine about the liberal media. the fucking whining never stops.

[Winnow]

If it's a phone poll than it's most certainly biased. Republicans are smart enough to screen their calls while democrats feel bad even for telemarketers and pickup.

[Markulas]

apparently so.....

shut the fuck up about any media influence
even 311 has lyrics telling of how much media control is over rated.

[Nick]

It would be hard to some up with justice, the true stupidity of the whole "election"
I think the puppet on the right represents my beliefs!
NO nO I think the puppet on the left is more to my liking!!

You are teh win!

[Midnyte_Ragebringer]

apparently so.....

shut the fuck up about any media influence
even 311 has lyrics telling of how much media control is over rated.

Well then, if 311 says it's overrated....

[masteen]

I honestly can't believe that Dubya agreed to a live debate, because this is an area (speaking English) where Kerry has a decided advantage. Although, given how accepting most Americans seem to be about the President's stupidity, Kerry really needs to slam dunk this debate to truly "win."

[Zaelath]

Bush's stupidity is endearing to the electorate; as George Carlin said, "Think about how dumb the average person is, then realise half of them are dumber than that."

If only democrats weren't so defeatist and actually turned out to vote....

[Wulfran]

I think its funny that the 2 camps came out with this 32 page manifesto ... er... memorandum of understanding on how to handle the debates and none of the networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox... can't remember about CNN) are agreeing to sign it because of limits on camera angles interfering with their journalistic integrity