/waves Bye to Kerry

Cartalas · Post by **Cartalas** » September 14, 2004, 12:25 pm

Election Scorecard
Where the presidential race stands today.
Updated Monday, Sept. 13, 2004, at 7:22 PM PT

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner Loser

307 Electoral Votes
207 solid, 100 close

231 Electoral Votes
170 solid, 61 close

The following tables track the latest polls in the presidential race. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be reelected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The fifth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by more than twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

Trial Heat Trend
Bush Kerry Nader Margin
of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/
Pollster Bush Kerry Since
46 46 3 3.5 Sep. 7-12 Likely IBD/TIPP N/A N/A
49 43 2 4 Sep. 9-10 Registered Newsweek -3 +2 Sep. 2-3
52 42 3 4 Sep. 7-9 Likely Time 0 0 Aug. 31-Sep. 2
51 46 1 3.5 Sep. 7-9 Likely AP N/A N/A
47 43 3 3 Sep. 7-8 Likely Fox +4 -1 Aug. 24-25
52 43 2 4 Sep. 6-8 Likely ABC/WP +4 -5 Aug. 26-29
49 42 1 3 Sep. 6-8 Registered CBS +4 -4 July 30-Aug. 1
52 45 1 4 Sep. 3-5 Likely CNN/USA . +4 -1 Aug. 23-25

Bush Job Approval Trend
Approve Disapprove Margin
of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/
Pollster Approve Disapprove Since
48 44 4 Sep. 9-10 Registered Newsweek Sep. 2-3
56 41 3 Sep. 7-9 Registered Time +1 -1 Aug. 31-
Sep. 2
49 44 3 Sep. 7-8 Likely Fox -2 +1 Aug. 24-25
52 45 3 Sep. 6-8 Registered ABC/WP 0 -2 Aug. 26-29
50 43 3 Sep. 6-8 Registered CBS +4 -2 July. 30-
Aug. 1
52 46 4 Sep. 3-5 Registered CNN/USA +3 -1 Aug. 23-25

Re-elect Trend
Yes No Margin
of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/
Pollster Yes No Since
50 46 3 Sep. 9-10 Registered Newsweek -3 +3 Sep. 2-3
52 45 3 Sep. 7-9 Registered Time +3 -3 Aug 31-
Sep. 2

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
Right Wrong Margin
of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/
Pollster Right Wrong Since
46 49 3 Sep. 7-9 Registered Time +1 -1 Aug. 31-Sep. 2
44 52 3 Sep. 6-8 Registered CBS +5 -3 July 30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating Bush Trend Kerry Trend
Bush Kerry Margin
of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/
Pollster Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Since
52/44 48/44 3 Sep. 9-10 Registered Newsweek -3 +4 +3 -2 Sep. 2-3
54/38 43/42 3 Sep. 7-9 Registered Time +9 -7 -10 +13 Aug. 3-5
51/43 46/44 3 Sep. 7-8 Likely Fox +1 -1 -2 +5 Aug. 24-25
51/39 36/42 4 Sep. 6-8 Registered ABC/WP +1 -1 -7 +2 Aug. 26-29
47/39 32/41 3 Sep. 6-8 Registered CBS +4 -5 -6 +7 7/30-8/1
55/44 53/43 4 Sep. 3-5 Registered CNN/USA +1 0 +1 +3 Aug. 23-25

Electoral Vote
State Bush Kerry Nader Margin Sample Dates Sponsor/
Pollster Bush
Solid Bush
Close Kerry
Close Kerry
Solid
AL 54
34 N/A 4.6 Registered 8/30-31 Ala. Education Association 9
AK 56 33 4.3 Registered 6/23-30 Dittman Research 3
AZ 54 38 N/A 4 Registered 9/3-5 Market Solutions 10
AR 6
CA 41 53 N/A 3 Registered 8/9-11 Strategic Vision . 55
CO 48 43 3.5 Registered 6/15-18 Mason-Dixon 9
CT 40 48 N/A 3 Registered 8/12-17 Quinnipiac University . 7
DE 46 48 N/A 4.4 Registered 8/16-21 Zogby Interactive 3 .
DC . 3
FL 48 44 3 Registered 8/26-28 Strategic Vision 27
GA 55 38 N/A 3 Registered 8/26-28 Strategic Vision 15
HI 41 48 N/A 3.7 Registered 7/29-8/3 SMS Research 4 .
ID 4
IL 38 52 N/A 4 Registered 8/13-16 Market Shares Corp. . 21
IN 54 38 N/A 4 Likely 9/7-9 Research 2000 11
IA 58 38 4 Likely 9/7-9 Research 2000 7
KS 6
KY 49 43 N/A 3.8 Registered 5/5-11 Courier-Journal 8
LA 53 36 N/A 4.1 Registered 8/31-9/2 Marketing Research 9
ME 41 43 3 5 Registered 6/5-12 Strategic Marketing 4
MD 40 53 N/A 3.5 Registered 6/5-12 Strategic Marketing . 10
MA 30 56 4.1 Registered 7/18-22 Merrimack College . 12
MI 43 51 4 Likely 8/25-29 Lake Snell Perry . 17
MN 46 49 3 Registered 8/26-28 Strategic Vision 10 .
MS 61 30 N/A 5.8 Registered 4/5-21 Mississippi State Univ. 6
MO 55 41 N/A 4 Likely 9/3-6 CNN/USA/Gallup 11
MT 53 33 N/A 4 Registered 5/24-26 Mason-Dixon 3
NE 44 42 2 4 Likely 6/8-10 Research 2000 5
NV 44 47 N/A 3.5 Registered 8/23-25 Hart Research 5 .
NH 43 50 N/A 4 Registered 8/3-5 American Research Group 4 .
NJ 41 43 N/A 4.3 Likely 9/3-7 Star-Ledger/Eagleton 15 .
NM 45 42 N/A 3 Registered 8/27-9/1 Research & Polling Inc. 5
NY 35 55 N/A 2.9 Registered 8/3-9 Quinnipiac . 31
NC 48 45 N/A 4.9 Registered 8/8-11 Research 2000 15
ND 3
OH 52 44 N/A 4 Likely 9/4-7 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 20
OK 64 30 N/A 5 Registered 9/1-2 Westhill Partners 7
OR 42 50 4 4 Registered 7/19-22 American Research Group . 7
PA 48 47 N/A 4 Likely 9/4-7 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 21
RI 25 49 5 5 Registered 6/12-14 Brown University . 4
SC 54 42 N/A 4 Registered 9/7-9 Public Opinion Strategies 8
SD 54 40 N/A 4.4 Registered 8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies 3
TN 11
TX 57 34 N/A 3 Registered 8/9-26 Scripps Howard 34
UT 65 25 N/A 3.3 Registered 9/6-9 Desert News 5
VT 36 51 4 N/A N/A Research 2000 . 3
VA 13
WA 44 52 N/A 5 Likely 9/3-6 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 11 .
WV 44 48 N/A 4 Registered 7/26-28 American Research Group 5 .
WI 52 44 1 5 Likely 9/9-12 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10
WY 3

http://slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2106527&GT1=5100

Acies · Post by **Acies** » September 14, 2004, 12:27 pm

rofl, does that say California votes Bush Cart?

Cartalas · Post by **Cartalas** » September 14, 2004, 12:30 pm

Acies wrote:rofl, does that say California votes Bush Cart?

No it says Kerry is gone.

Raistin · Post by **Raistin** » September 14, 2004, 12:42 pm

you are a stupid peice of shit. guess your brains did drip down your moms ass crack when you were born.

Hoarmurath · Post by **Hoarmurath** » September 14, 2004, 1:05 pm

Those aren't tables, that's a clusterfuck of a copy and paste. How about just providing a link to the information since you clearly can't format a post?

Neost · Post by **Neost** » September 14, 2004, 1:07 pm

http://slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2106527&GT1=5100

Seems like I saw a link around there somewhere......

Hoarmurath · Post by **Hoarmurath** » September 14, 2004, 1:12 pm

Neost wrote:Seems like I saw a link around there somewhere......

Consider me schooled, looked like part of a sig to me. Thank you.

*~*stragi*~* · Post by ***~*stragi*~*** » September 14, 2004, 1:12 pm

if you could smell this thread it would smell like my cubical right now because i just FARTED

Thess · Post by **Thess** » September 14, 2004, 1:19 pm

That site doesn't even have the correct electoral votes for each state.

Hesten · Post by **Hesten** » September 14, 2004, 3:04 pm

Thess wrote:That site doesn't even have the correct electoral votes for each state.

Well Thess, its Cartalas whos posting, you expect anything reliable?

Sirton · Post by **Sirton** » September 14, 2004, 4:01 pm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_v ... _sbys.html Pretty much shows you everything with the most recent national polls and state polls and gives you basically a weekly avg. They just report the polls there really.

Acies · Post by **Acies** » September 14, 2004, 4:04 pm

Nice site. Thank you Sirton.

Thess · Post by **Thess** » September 14, 2004, 4:04 pm

Sirton wrote:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_v ... _sbys.html Pretty much shows you everything with the most recent national polls and state polls and gives you basically a weekly avg. They just report the polls there really.

Can we sticky this post by Sirton so he doesn't feel the necessity to repost that link every other day.

miir · Post by **miir** » September 14, 2004, 4:07 pm

Thess wrote:
Sirton wrote:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_v ... _sbys.html Pretty much shows you everything with the most recent national polls and state polls and gives you basically a weekly avg. They just report the polls there really.
Can we sticky this post by Sirton so he doesn't feel the necessity to repost that link every other day.

Sirton's posted some good links for polls and the like, I have them all bookmarked.

Sirton · Post by **Sirton** » September 14, 2004, 4:08 pm

Can we sticky this post by Sirton so he doesn't feel the necessity to repost that link every other day.

Marbus · Post by **Marbus** » September 14, 2004, 4:47 pm

I have them all bookmarked as well...

Xzion · Post by **Xzion** » September 14, 2004, 5:20 pm

On CNN just now the same poll that showed Bush having an 11 point lead (i think, either that one or the 7 point one) showed Kerry now having a 2 point lead over Bush, a second poll showed them in a dead heat...of course this is comming from someone who has 0 faith in polls (this is also the first presidential poll i have actually played attention too and i had no idea how accurate they were in the previous elections).

Krimson Klaw · Post by **Krimson Klaw** » September 14, 2004, 6:45 pm

Thess wrote:That site doesn't even have the correct electoral votes for each state.

pwn3d

Pherr the Dorf · Post by **Pherr the Dorf** » September 14, 2004, 7:19 pm

This will go down to the wire

Markulas · Post by **Markulas** » September 14, 2004, 7:35 pm

I think I'm gonna wait till that one day where your vote counts(well kinda lol).

Niffoni · Post by **Niffoni** » September 14, 2004, 9:21 pm

Oh good, a pharm thread! I'm going to copy and paste some shit too, brb!

Sirton · Post by **Sirton** » September 15, 2004, 12:32 am

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

http://www.geocities.com/hedgehogreport ... state.html

Couple other decent ones..so you can see the trends.....Just incase ya hadn't bookmarked em yet. Sticky me! Damn Im addicted to this election shit, like a superbowl game with your home team in it.