LA Times Poll Shows Bush Leading Kerry

[Winnow]

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) has pulled ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) for the first time this year in a Los Angeles Times poll, the newspaper reported on Wednesday in its online edition.

The survey taken Saturday through Tuesday showed that 49 percent of registered voters favored Bush, while 46 percent preferred Kerry. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Survey responses indicated that Kerry had been hurt by attacks on his Vietnam service record by Bush backers, the Times said.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... gn_poll_dc

OK...so he's barely ahead!

With the Republican National Convention coming up in less than a week and Bush already leading even before it starts, we should go ahead and resign this election to Bush and take our first look at the 2008 presidential election.

How's this sound...

Hillary Clinton

vs

John McCain

Hillary will have her wish and get a clean shot at the presidency. I give her credit for realizing this year was a lost cause but if McCain can stay healthy, he's a very strong republican candidate for Hillary to face.

Early predictions:

Hillary selects Barack Obama as her running mate which is actually a good choice but in the end, the public freaks out over a Female/African American ticket and McCain coasts in as our next president with maybe Cheney as vice president to keep running the country.

[Aaeamdar]

Its not winning if they fall within the margin of error

[Winnow]

Its not winning if they fall within the margin of error

If there's one thing we learned from the last election it's that any margin of error will favor the republicans.

[Xzion]

John McCain wont run. Either way Bush is gonna loose so it depends on how well/popular Kerry is doing to see who they throw against him in 2008.
Either way even Bush is winning the popular, Kerry has the electoral

[Cartalas]

John McCain wont run. Either way Bush is gonna loose so it depends on how well/popular Kerry is doing to see who they throw against him in 2008.
Either way even Bush is winning the popular, Kerry has the electoral

You hope

[Niffoni]

How many Bushlettes have the pubbies lined up, BTW?

Jeb in 2008!! ... I wish I was kidding.

[Siji]

Hillary won't win. Ever. Period. If she were running right now, she'd lose to Bush. There will likely come a day when a woman will become president, assuming we last long enough, but it's not going to be anytime soon and it won't be Hillary.

[Voronwë]

i havent seen any electoral college stuff that is newer than one week, but the last electoral college projection i saw had Kerry up about 305 to 210.

[Sirton]

latest I saw was 269/269 tie (House republicans make Bush president).
http://www.geocities.com/wubwub/bushkerrystate2004.html

Then another was 280 Kerry and 238 Bush
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

But we all know with common sense: Bush is gonna win TN(Gore couldnt even win his home state), CO, and squeek MO(Bush lead in polls here almost whole time only zogbys and couple other polls ever had a poll super close).
again 269/269 Tie (House republicans make Bush president)

he should also win NH and NV....which would give Bush 278 Kerry 260.

BTW see recent california poll Bush only down by 3% points within the margin of error?

Electorial College favors the Republicans more this year than in 2000 they gained many points in red states after the census, so Bush can loose a small state possibly 2 from 2000 and still win.

Another thing while the Democrats were Bashing Bush constantly for the past 2 years...Bush setup major grassroot organizations and his ground works are the best ever setup by a president...Thats what he did instead of calling them miserable failure every 5sec. I think the election is getting close to being over already...depending on the republican convention...Everyone has already heard all the negative they can about Bush, but they Hadnt about Kerry. He wont be a good enough alternative to replace Bush for many peeps.

The chamber of Commerce is actually for once coming out against a canidate(LOL thx Edwards for sinking Kerry)....Wait till that settles in within the next month. The AMA hates Edwards wait till that settles in over the next month. Some may like Edwards, but the buisness and medical communities HATE him..just look up his record in running out delivery doctors in Carolina. He sure does care for the women now they cant deliver babys. The trial Lawyers love him though theyd make threats to doctors settle or Ill sick Edwards on you.

So Edwards will net negative for Kerry and Kerry will net negative from Gore. Hes gonna be sunk dont get your hopes up to much, remember Bush had unreal approval ratings for a very long time..So many can see themselves actually voting for him when It comes down to it.

[Metanis]

i havent seen any electoral college stuff that is newer than one week, but the last electoral college projection i saw had Kerry up about 305 to 210.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ has Kerry 280 and Bush 238 as of today.

I suspect the Bush camp is pleased with the trend. Isn't it better to be the underdog but trending upward with 2 months to go?

[Metanis]

... remember Bush had unreal approval ratings for a very long time..So many can see themselves actually voting for him when It comes down to it.

That's an interesting observation. If you have once supported a person can you more easily go back and support them enough to vote for them?

[Kaldaur]

Missouri could really go to anyone at this point Sirton. There is a great deal of anger in that state over the economy and lost jobs (MO is a huge manufacturer, or was...) that could translate into jobs for Kerry. However, MO is big on values, and Bush is leading Kerry in the values poll for this state. But let's not underestimate the anger of Missouri citizens. This anger could lead them to vote for someone who doesn't agree politically but is a change from Bush.
Regardless, it's going to be a close election.

[Kelshara]

I believe it will be a close election. Unfortunately, I also believe the looney toon will be re-elected.

[Sirton]

I think so Ment., If the other guy looks Bad enough, and isnt a good enough replacement. Kerry hasnt been scrutinized that long and its just starting and hes falling in all the polls after just 2 weeks ...We know were Bush's low end is around 44%....Kerry really can't get his numbers higher than 48% but his number can fall in the mid 30% range. What new stuff are they gonna pull on Bush that everyone hasnt heard? What new stuff on Kerry? Kerry is new to everyone on the most part.

He has to hope that he is in full speed on the day of the election.

True MO, CO, NV, NH, WV, MI, WI, IO,MI and NM should all be close, but MO polls over the past 3 months show Bush winning about 75+% of em and many outside margin of error same with CO and NV...Also Bush is trending upward atm...RNC convention coming up then Sept. 11th aniversary. And Bush will have much more money. Kerry has to hope on a debate thrashing. Kerry really isnt energetic enough to do that....and I think most people felt Bush beat Gore in the Debates last time.

So dont do the common democrat mistake. Underestimate GWB and figure him stupid, or your gonna get stomped again like in 2002

[miir]

or your gonna get stomped again like in 2002

In what reality could the republican 'victory' in 2002 be considered a stomping?

[Forthe]

I believe it will be a close election. Unfortunately, I also believe the looney toon will be re-elected.

I'll actually be surprised if he is re-elected unless some major event happens or Kerry blows up between now and the election. I mainly believe this is due to Bush creating a stronger motivation to get out there and vote for those that oppose him than he has created for those that support him.

I've seen him turn people that didn't give a fuck about politics into vocal political critics. When election day comes I'll be very suprised if we don't see extremely high democrat and independent voter turnout.

[Voronwë]

i havent seen any electoral college stuff that is newer than one week, but the last electoral college projection i saw had Kerry up about 305 to 210.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ has Kerry 280 and Bush 238 as of today.

I suspect the Bush camp is pleased with the trend. Isn't it better to be the underdog but trending upward with 2 months to go?

i am not sure the answer to that question actually if you are the encumbant.

the debates will be huge i think.

9/30 and 10/4 are 2 of them =)

[Sylvus]

or your gonna get stomped again like in 2002

In what reality could the republican 'victory' in 2002 be considered a stomping?

I do hope that he wasn't referring to the Presidential Election of 2000 and instead meant the Republicans' dominance of gubernatorial and congressional elections in 2002? I have trouble reading a whole Sirton post so I'm not sure of the context.

[miir]

Oh heh yeah, I didn't fully read it, I just assumed he meant 2000.

Serves me right for glossing over most of the babble that Sirton posts.

[Cartalas]

Oh heh yeah, I didn't fully read it, I just assumed he meant 2000.

Serves me right for glossing over most of the babble that Sirton posts.

Its ok thats what we do with your liberal propaganda.

[Winnow]

BTW see recent california poll Bush only down by 3% points within the margin of error?

I noticed this. That's gotta hurt if you're pro Kerry. The Baldwins can pack their bags for France now if California actually does shift to the republican side. Go Arnold! His speech at the RNC may help things as well with the republicans in California.

mmmmm 55 electoral votes!

[Kelshara]

The fact that Arnold was elected in the first places just proves that the big quake can't come fast enough.

[Sirton]

I was talking about the 2002 election it was the Dems chance to really pickup seats and they were a miserble failure.

But hey Bush should of been stomped in 2000, the DNC and Gore screwed it...they lost it, trying to make Gore look like Reagan with goofy red cheeks at one debate and never knowing who was the real Al Gore was with the so called Clinton economy and peace it should of been a cake walk..Bush underestimated. Ann Richards thought Bush would be a push over...Bush Underestimated. And again in 2002. And whats great Im already seeing it again this year.

BTW this election is the one Repubs are suppose to pickup seats. They will gain about 2 Senate seats and the house anywhere from neg5-pos12 House seats. Remember the redistricting in TX will gain them 5 auto

[Niffoni]

Will black people be allowed to vote this year?

[Siji]

Will black people be allowed to vote this year?

They'll be lead to think they can..

[Niffoni]

They'll be lead to think they can..

I feel so pacified!

[Kilmoll the Sexy]

The fact that Arnold was elected in the first places just proves that the big quake can't come fast enough.

He has not done a bad job....especially considering the hole Cali was in when he took over. With his celebrity status, any little mistake he would make would be magnified 100 times over.

[Sionistic]

that map is depressing, cant we let texas only have 2 votes? They arnt really a state.

[Sirton]

Some new poll info:

NBC/WSJ Poll National:
Bush 47%
Kerry 45%
Nader 3%

Survey USA:
CALI:
Kerry 49%
Bush 46%

Pew Center:
PENN.
Bush 45%
Kerry 44%

Los Angeles Times:
OHIO
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%

MISSOURI
Bush 46%
Kerry 44%

WISCONSIN
Bush 48%
Kerry 44%

CNN/USA Today/Gallup National:
Bush 50%
Kerry 47%

Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Nader 4%

Rasmussen National:
Bush 47%
Kerry 46%

CBS/NY Times National:
Kerry 46%
Bush 45%
Nader 1%

Harris Poll:
Bush 47%
Kerry 47%
Nader 3%

Insider Advantage:
Bush 46%
Kerry 43%
Nader 3%

Zogby:
Kerry 47%
Bush 42%
Nader 3%

electorial college numbers:
Bush (R) 282(most recent poll) 18(from last election) 300(total atm)
Kerry (D) 232 6 238

Its close as hell and can change daily, but I dont see this as a good trend for Kerry at this time..he has lost ground after his convention and the RNC convention still hasnt started-->Sept 11th-->Bush with more cash on hand and more powerful campaigners (Mccain, Rudy, Arnold, Laura, Zell Miller) I dont think Bill will even show his face much, but well see---> I think Kerrys only real chance is if he does great in the debates.

[Krimson Klaw]

I've only seen him debate once and that was in the 70's vs that other vet that Nixon hand picked to tear him apart. He did pretty well then. I pick him every time for teh win vs Bush in a debate.

[Winnow]

Bush is underestimated as a debater. He uses simple speak. Keep it simple for simple people. The debates are there to sway the day to day folks who don't care about the elections until right before they happen.

Kerry may win the debate in terms of more defined answers for the political geek crowd but that doesn't mean he'll win it in terms of gaining votes.

Stay the course!

[Krimson Klaw]

So that's going to be your argument after the debates? If Kerry clearly wins the debate, you are actually going to say Bush really won because he used simple speak? Ok well you run with that.

[masteen]

If you "win" the debate, but alienate the rubes in middle America, it's not really a big "W", is it?

[Krimson Klaw]

So now we are at the point of saying Kerry cannot win without excluding middle class America? Kind of stretching it arent we? You guys already have your minds made up about who will win the debates. If Kerry wins, he really loses because he excluded someone. If Bush wins, then he just really won. I however hope Kerry wins, but will call it down the middle with no cliches and no favor.

[Kelshara]

Funny, the comments made after Kerry was on the Daily Show was that he seemed a way more likeable person and down to earth than people thought..

[Krimson Klaw]

Well obviously the people that made those comments are upper crust white collars, not middle America, because Kerry does not speak dumb redneck.

[Kargyle]

Well, if it is really necessary for people to "dumb down" their language in order to keep from alienating voters that feel intimidated by intelligence, then I think all of the people with working brains should move away, and we can leave America to the morons.

I find the very idea of needing to use "simple speak" to appeal to the American public offensive. If we have really come to the point in our society that being a well spoken intellectual is a liability then we don't deserve to be a super power any more. Every one should have the right to vote, but voting is a responsibility, and people need to treat it as such. That means you don't vote for so and so because he's better looking, or has an accent that you are familiar with, or whatever. It means making an informed choice; selecting a specfic candidate because his world views and beliefs and policies most match your own. Fuck all of the conservative/liberal, republican/democrat bullshit. Everyone should be an independent. Vote your opinion, not your party.

*Forgive any typos, spelling mistakes, etc. I am at at work, and in a hurry, I didn't have time to proof read.

[Winnow]

So that's going to be your argument after the debates? If Kerry clearly wins the debate, you are actually going to say Bush really won because he used simple speak? Ok well you run with that.

You've got to look at everything in terms of votes as nothing matters if he doesn't get into office.

For example, put Steven Hawking and Mr Wizard from the saturday morning kids show on a stage in a debate. Hawking would crush Mr. Wizard in terms of knowledge but the common folk would understand Mr. Wizard because of his communication style.

[Krimson Klaw]

Your theory is wrong and I tell you why. Jesse Jackson. It gets no more simple than his speaches and he has come about as close as Nader to winning the presidency. Contrary to what you think, Americans have, in the past, graduated from highschool or have received their GED's and can follow well spoken english.

[Winnow]

Your theory is wrong and I tell you why. Jesse Jackson. It gets no more simple than his speaches and he has come about as close as Nader to winning the presidency. Contrary to what you think, Americans have, in the past, graduated from highschool or have received their GED's and can follow well spoken english.

The only thing I remember from Jesse Jackson's speeches is, "The point is moot!"

I disagree that Jackson spoke in simple terms. He preached and was hard to understand not because of what he said but because of his accent.

[Voronwë]

Bill Clinton is a good example of this as well. What makes somebody a skilled speaker is their ability to make complex solutions to complex problems accessible to non-experts.

They replayed Clinton on the Daily Show last night, and that was a stellar interview.

certainly part of Bush's appeal is that he is likeable. That may get you some points, but most Americans who haven't already decided who they are going to vote for are looking for people who can express points that resonate with them.

The debates and the campaigns aren't emphasizing "preeching to the choir" this year. They are going for that sliver of undecided.

[Krimson Klaw]

That's really besides the point. I just cannot believe you actually think a person that is well spoken will lose out to the masses. I would agree with you if you were talking pre printing press, but these are modern times, and for the most part most Americans are literate and can follow a well spoken individual. For you to say otherwise is kind of insulting.

[Winnow]

That's really besides the point. I just cannot believe you actually think a person that is well spoken will lose out to the masses. I would agree with you if you were talking pre printing press, but these are modern times, and for the most part most Americans are literate and can follow a well spoken individual. For you to say otherwise is kind of insulting.

That's it. You're off the election team! All you can hope is that the president appoints people to cabinet positions that wouldn't have been elected due to their poor campaign skills but are the best people for their particular specialties.

I can't believe you are telling me that communication technique and perception/popularity have nothing to do with votes when Arnold is the current governor of California.

[Krimson Klaw]

Where did I say that? I am just refuting your theory that Americans are too dumb to understand a well spoken candidate.

[Voronwë]

i think Winnow has watched so many GOP surrogates that he has absorbed the doublespeak, and doesn't even know what he is saying.

[kyoukan]

that or he is just a fucking moronic troll who never has in his entire life said anything worthy.

[Winnow]

If what I write makes sense to me I immediately go back and edit my post.

[Adelrune Argenti]

The numbers are a bit different than those posted by Sirton however Bush is leading in the electoral college.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/ ... index.html

NEW YORK (CNN) -- President Bush heads into the Republican National Convention next week with a small lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the all-important Electoral College, according to a new CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts.

Bush would receive 274 electoral votes to Kerry's 264 if the election were held today, less than 10 weeks before November 2 and three days before the opening of the GOP convention in Madison Square Garden. If Kerry were to pick up a state as small as Nevada, the electoral vote would be tied, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.

CNN's political unit compiled the electoral map after reviewing state polls and conducting extensive interviews with pollsters from both campaigns, as well as local political reporters, strategists and consultants.

The map bears a remarkable resemblance to the results of the 2000 election, in which Bush defeated Al Gore by just five electoral votes and lost the popular vote. Bush remains strong in the South, the prairie and mountain states. Kerry leads in his native Northeast and on the West Coast. The two candidates continue to battle evenly in industrial Midwest states.

Bush is carrying every state he carried four years ago -- except New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes.

In New Hampshire, which Bush won by 7,211 votes four years ago, Kerry, a native of adjacent Massachusetts, is benefiting from high name recognition and the widespread coverage he received during the state's primaries.

Kerry won the primary in January after scoring a come-from-behind victory over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the Iowa caucuses one week earlier.

About a dozen states remain extremely competitive and are widely considered too close to call. Leading that list are Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Missouri, where Bush holds a narrow lead, as well as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Pennsylvania, which now lean toward Kerry.

West Virginia and Arizona are also competitive, but Democrats concede that those state now fall into the Bush column. Likewise, Oregon and Washington state could ultimately back either candidate, but Kerry is currently building a strong base of support in the Pacific Northwest.

The race in Ohio remains extremely fluid, and both campaigns remain highly organized in the Buckeye State. All four principals -- and most of their wives -- have campaigned there at least once over the past two weeks.

The state's industrial base has been hard hit by job losses and, Democrats say, voters have grown disenchanted with the Republicans' control of both state and federal government. These days, Republican Gov. Bob Taft's approval rating hovers near or below 40 percent.

"That's what you have in Taft and what people are seeing nationally -- a very strongly negative feeling there about the Republican Party," a Democratic strategist said.

Republicans concede that Columbus, Ohio, a normally Republican area, is trending more Democratic. Also, Cincinnati has not been performing as well for Republicans as it has in the past.

In Florida, Bush is aided by one of the nation's strongest economies and best job markets. He also has a strong surrogate in his brother, Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, who won re-election by 13 points two years ago and remains highly popular.

Bush-Cheney aides say the Bush brothers help each other with different demographics: The governor does better among younger voters, the president performs better among older voters.

Democrats say they're focusing on turnout in Miami-Dade County, a party stronghold that contains nearly one-fifth of the state's population and where Gore-Lieberman failed to generate a strong turnout four years ago.

The CNN survey reveals some interesting trends as the campaign nears the crucial Labor Day checkpoint.

For example, less than two months after Kerry chose Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate in part to challenge Bush's lock on the South, his campaign has made few inroads into any state south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

Kerry last month pulled TV ads his campaign was running in Arkansas, Virginia and Louisiana, and strategists now concede they have little chance of carrying those states. Part of Kerry's problem, aides say, has been a failure to generate support among a large segment of the African-American vote, particularly in states like Louisiana.

The one exception to this trend is North Carolina, which has voted for the GOP presidential nominee every year since 1964. Bush still leads there, aided by a strong base of social conservatives. But Kerry's selection of Edwards has helped him cut into Bush's lead.

[Toshira]

that or he is just a fucking moronic troll who never has in his entire life said anything worthy.

Bing.

[Winnow]

Liberal irritability on this thread = Bush doing well in the polls