bad news in Iraq

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Sueven
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bad news in Iraq

Post by Sueven »

Al-Sadr's supporters have taken over Najaf.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/04/ ... index.html

Partial text:
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Supporters of maverick Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr controlled government, religious and security buildings in the holy city of Najaf early Tuesday evening, according to a coalition source in southern Iraq.

The source said al-Sadr's followers controlled the governor's office, police stations and the Imam Ali mosque, one of Shia Muslim's holiest shrines.

Iraqi police were negotiating to regain their stations, the source said.

The source also said al-Sadr was busing followers into Najaf from Sadr City in Baghdad and that many members of his outlawed militia, Mehdi's Army, were from surrounding provinces.

Business people are closing their shops and either leaving the city or hoarding their wares in their homes, the source said.

Earlier Tuesday, fighting erupted on the northern side of Fallujah when a routine patrol came under fire. The Marines sent an Abrams tank and several Humvees to reinforce the patrol, along with helicopters.

One Marine was seriously wounded and evacuated to a combat hospital.

Also on Tuesday, U.S. Marines detained six Iraqis carrying explosives near an operational command post north of Fallujah, a Marine officer said. The officer said the material was intended to make homemade bombs.

In Baghdad, firefights continued Tuesday, particularly in the Shiite area of Sadr City. Reports also indicated that Italian troops were battling al-Sadr supporters in Nasiriyah.

As the fighting flared, al-Sadr, who sparked the violent clashes between his supporters and U.S. troops, was planning to take refuge in Imam Ali mosque, according to a posting on his Web site.

Al-Sadr also called for a general strike, demanding that the coalition pull back its troops from populated areas and release prisoners taken into custody in recent demonstrations.

Twelve coalition soldiers -- 11 Americans and a Salvadoran -- and dozens of Iraqis have been killed in three days of battles in Baghdad and Najaf, while firefights have erupted in other cities and towns as well.

Seven Marines were killed in the same time period in al Anbar province, west of Baghdad, along with two more soldiers in northern Iraq.

Despite the rising death toll, Paul Bremer, the top U.S. civilian administrator in Iraq, said "there is no question we have control over the country."

"I know if you just report on those few places, it does look chaotic," Bremer said on CNN's "American Morning." "But if you travel around the country, what you find is a bustling economy, people opening businesses right and left, unemployment has dropped.

"The story of the house that doesn't burn down is not much of a story in the news," he said. "The story of the house that does burn down is news."

The clashes began over the weekend when demonstrations supporting al-Sadr and his deputy -- who was arrested Saturday in connection with the killing last year of a moderate Shiite cleric by a mob of Sadr followers -- turned violent, first in Najaf against Spanish forces and then in Sadr City, named for al-Sadr's father, Mohammed al-Sadr.

The instability prompted the United Nations to temporarily halt convoys bringing Iraqi refugees back from Iran in the south.
Thoughts? What does this say about the state of the country? How should we respond? What does al-Sadr do next?
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Post by kyoukan »

US should have killed him before he got too powerful. Now if you waste him he'll just be a martyr who was bravely fighting the american invaders.

I guess the marines were called in on Fallujah as well. That will turn into a bloodbath before long. Looks like the states still has a few things to learn about conquest and empire building. Didn't learn a single damn thing in Vietnam.
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Post by Voronwë »

kyoukan wrote:US should have killed him before he got too powerful. Now if you waste him he'll just be a martyr who was bravely fighting the american invaders.

I guess the marines were called in on Fallujah as well. That will turn into a bloodbath before long. Looks like the states still has a few things to learn about conquest and empire building. Didn't learn a single damn thing in Vietnam.
actually the US knew exactly what to do, and various intelligence agencies spent the better part of a year preparing reports on how to handle this occupation.

However, Rumsfeld, et al., chose a different course of action, up to and including ordering the guy who succeede Paul Bremer to not read said reports.

but this is bad news, having a Shiite front potentially open up in addition to the Sunni front in Falujah.
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Post by kyoukan »

They had a plan mapped out in case of counterinsurgency warfare and Rumsfeld ignored it? Why?
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Post by Voronwë »

you'd have to ask him.

some might say it is because he is an arrogant son of a bitch, and had his own (mistaken) views on how post-war Iraq would be.
The Miami Herald wrote:As one example, the Pentagon planners ignored an eight-month-long effort led by the State Department to prepare for the day when Saddam's dictatorship was gone. The "Future of Iraq" project, which involved dozens of exiled Iraqi professionals and 17 U.S. agencies, including the Pentagon, prepared strategies for everything from drawing up a new Iraqi judicial code to restoring the unique ecosystem of Iraq's southern marshes, which Saddam's regime had drained.

Virtually none of the "Future of Iraq" project's work was used once Saddam fell.

The first U.S. administrator in Iraq, retired Lt. Gen. Jay Garner, wanted the Future of Iraq project director, Tom Warrick, to join his staff in Baghdad. Warrick had begun packing his bags, but Pentagon civilians vetoed his appointment, said one current and one former official.

Meanwhile, postwar planning documents from the State Department, CIA and elsewhere were "simply disappearing down the black hole" at the Pentagon, said a former U.S. official with long Middle East experience who recently returned from Iraq.
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Post by Sueven »

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Post by Brotha »

Just to put the amount of support al-Sadr actually has into perspective:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/worl ... 40314.html
Choices also are fragmented when Iraqis are asked which national leader they "trust the most" — more than 40 individual answers, each with few mentions. Only five received mentions from more than 3 percent (by the way the top 3 are on the Iraqi Governing Council):

• Ibrahim Al-Jaaferi, 8 percent (main spokesman for the Islamic Dawa Party);
• Massoud Barzani, 6 percent (leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party);
• Jalal Talabani, 6 percent (leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan);
• Sayyid Al-Sistani, 5 percent (the country's leading Shiite cleric, sometimes described as the most powerful man in Iraq); and
• Adnan Pachachi, 4 percent (foreign minister in the government deposed by Saddam Hussein in 1968, he founded the Independent Democratic Movement last month.)
They didn't even need to list him.

Not sure of the wording, but I think this is ONLY among Shiites (the group that should support him the most):

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/Wo ... 40405.html
Shiite Arabs in Iraq express relatively little support for attacks against coalition forces such as those that occurred Sunday. And while most do express confidence in religious leaders and call for them to play a role in Iraq today, most do not seek a theocracy, and very few see Iran as a model for Iraq.

A nationwide poll of Iraqis conducted in February for ABCNEWS also found that very few Shiites express support for Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose militia mounted the deadly attacks against the U.S.-led occupation. Nine coalition troops, including eight Americans, and more than 50 Iraqis were killed in the clashes.

In terms of al-Sadr, a bare 1 percent of Iraqis name him as the national leader they trust most. On Iran, just 3 percent name it as a model for Iraq in the coming years, and just 4 percent say it should play a role in rebuilding Iraq.
From all the news reports today of huge amounts of casualties, etc, etc, I expected to hear about how hundreds of troops were slaughtered. Now I'm seeing "up to 12 killed" (heavy casualties!!), and from what I've read there've been a grand total of two casualties (not deaths) from our actions in Fallujah. Obviously 12 is more than is expected or accepted, but after seeing the terms like popular uprising, revolt, and rebellion thrown around I was expecting a lot more than this.

I agree that postwar planning was very shitty though.
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Post by kyoukan »

Way to win the hearts and minds. Isn't that a marine philisophy about moving into populated areas? I guess that was pre-Bush, before "America was attacked." Today the marines levelled a bunch of houses in Fallujah with airstrikes and tank barrages and killed 36 civilians. I'm guessing because they were bored and needed some target practice (god and canada knows their fucking incompetent bomber pilots need all the practice they can get). I guess they feel liberated now. This will go over well.

Semper Fi guys.
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Post by Cartalas »

kyoukan wrote:Way to win the hearts and minds. Isn't that a marine philisophy about moving into populated areas? I guess that was pre-Bush, before "America was attacked." Today the marines levelled a bunch of houses in Fallujah with airstrikes and tank barrages and killed 36 civilians. I'm guessing because they were bored and needed some target practice (god and canada knows their fucking incompetent bomber pilots need all the practice they can get). I guess they feel liberated now. This will go over well.

Semper Fi guys.
Not to forget how the Canadians practiced on those Somalis with rifle butts, WTG guys.
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Post by Kelshara »

Want us to even begin listing similar occurences from Americans Cart? No? Then shut the fuck up and go back to your trailer.

Brotha,
I had a thought about those polls. They said they were done in Arabic, but if they were very clearly performed for the west wouldn't it be possible that people molded answers to what they thought they wanted to hear? I am sure quite a few people still distrust pretty much everyone after having lived under Saddam.

Oh and 12 casualties.. how many died before Bush called the War over? heh.
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Post by Ashur »

wtf Cart... this forum is to post about how shitty americans are. stfu and gtfo --->
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Post by Cartalas »

"Want us to even begin listing similar occurences from Americans Cart? No? Then shut the fuck up and go back to your trailer."


I dont give a flying squirrel fuck what you list the fact is Americans arent the only ones that fuck up.
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Post by Sueven »

I agree that postwar planning was very shitty though.
That's exactly it.
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Post by Forthe »

Cartalas wrote:"Want us to even begin listing similar occurences from Americans Cart? No? Then shut the fuck up and go back to your trailer."

I dont give a flying squirrel fuck what you list the fact is Americans arent the only ones that fuck up.
Very true. But you start the most wars so fuck up the most.
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Post by Skogen »

who here actually didn't see something like this coming a while ago?
Iraq is like watching a train wreck, but our stupid fucking leaders have blinders on.
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Post by Sylvus »

I would post this inline, but it's pretty wide and will break the borders.

Check this shit out.

I have to assume it's photoshopped, but if not, how's that for drumming up support in Iraq when they get more and more internet access every day? Can anyone read whatever it says on the bottom of that?

Actually, it appears there is some investigation into the photo already going on.
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Post by Jassun »

kyoukan wrote:Way to win the hearts and minds. Isn't that a marine philisophy about moving into populated areas? I guess that was pre-Bush, before "America was attacked." Today the marines levelled a bunch of houses in Fallujah with airstrikes and tank barrages and killed 36 civilians. I'm guessing because they were bored and needed some target practice (god and canada knows their fucking incompetent bomber pilots need all the practice they can get). I guess they feel liberated now. This will go over well.

Semper Fi guys.
Fuck you.

It's easy to critisize their motives when you aren't the one watching your brothers getting shot at and killed.

Besides, those units dont act on thier own cognizance. They are following orders. Blame the learders, not the followers.
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Post by Sueven »

You mean the leaders that feed pilots amphetamines?

Anyway, an interpretation of the situation by one expert:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/04/ ... index.html

Excerpts:
if the thesis is correct that foreign fighters and al Qaeda terrorists and diehard Baathists are playing a marginal role, rather than a substantial one, then, what we are doing now -- military escalation -- will alienate the Iraqi community further and drive many of the members to take arms against the American and coalition forces.
And this is why I think the worst-case scenario, what we feared the most, was that the insurgency will spread from the so-called Sunni Triangle. The Sunni Triangle is a strategic area of hundreds of square miles in central Iraq, includes Fallujah, Ramadi, Baghdad, the whole Anbar area.

But it seems now, if you look at the Iraqi map, in the last 48 hours or so, the insurgency has spread to almost every single town, Baghdad, Kufa, Basra, Najaf, Nasiriya, Ramadi. This is very serious.

This is what we are witnessing today, a major, major popular uprising.
This is clearly one man's (expert) opinion, but it's interesting regardless.
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Post by Voronwë »

i think it is way too premature to term this a "popular uprising".

was kind of surprising to see people in the Sunni city of Fallujah holding pictures of the Shiite Sadr. it is probably a "the enemy of my enemy is my enemy" thing :p
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Post by vn_Tanc »

A major Shia uprising (and Sadr's militia supposedly number ~10,000) is the last thing Iraq needed while Sunni (Baathist) insurgents are still highly active. It's basically another front opening.

I was waiting to see if this dies down within 48 hours before really making any calls but with Fallujah sealed off, Najaf under Sadr control and violence spreading and escalating I think "major uprising" pretty much covers it at this point. The amount of popular support is still debatable but according to the BBC website the Shia majority in Iraq is split about evenly. That can't be good.

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Post by Metanis »

Most of you people are funny for your total lack of perspective.

Way to overreact to some breathless media pandering. You are only too happy to assume that this is some sign of major failure for the USA.

It ain't so.
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Post by Krimson Klaw »

Major failure, no. Major problem, yes.
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Post by nobody »

Voronwë wrote: However, Rumsfeld, et al., chose a different course of action, up to and including ordering the guy who succeede Paul Bremer to not read said reports.
speaking of Rumsfeld, he wants to reorganize the army and get rid of two whole divisions yet keep us out in the field longer. not to mention stoploss, and gaurd and reservists serving 12 to 18 months at a time. i have one friend who is a reservist who got activated for 18 to 24 months. don't get me wrong, i raised my hand and asked to come out here but you can only spread us so thin so long. what if China and Taiwan or N and S Korea got into it?
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