How would the vote go if it happened today?

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Midnyte_Ragebringer
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Winnow wrote:
Toshira wrote:
Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote: Actually, I'm not one of those. My bone to pick with Clinton was his protesting against the Vietnam war. While I find his BJ disrespectful to the office, I don't think he should have been impeached for that. I do understand the need for impeachment based on lieing under oath though. It's pretty bad that our leader lied under oath. Granted it was over BS he shouldn't have been in court for anyway, but that's besides the point.
I agree. He should have pulled a Reagan and "not remembered".
Ollie North had the best line, "My memory has been shredded" while being questioned about shredded documents.
lol That was funny. I remember watching every minute of that. What great TV that was.
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Post by Xzion »

this is what we need right here....looks like Bush's "bounce" is going bye bye. Even though its for the wrong reason, Texans for truth will make people loose there newly formed artificial faith for Bush's policys after seeing four years of failure and put them back on the right path...It has been reported in history, (i think as recently as Jimmy Carters "bounce" after his convention) that the frontrunners bounce hits a wall and falls apart leaving room for a landslide victory in favor of there opponent (Regan/maybe Kerry) Let Bush have Florida/Ohio and Nevada, wel take the rest!

Also notice on that poll that the dems base is strenghening, and "strong kerry" for the first time is almost as strong as "strong bush"...the very weak california that had kerry up by only 2 points now has him leading by double digits, as well as NM and most of the northeast

I dont know how much i can trust this poll in itself, but it does go well as far as my predictions for this election
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Post by Asheran Mojomaster »

Xzion wrote:this is what we need right here....looks like Bush's "bounce" is going bye bye. Even though its for the wrong reason, Texans for truth will make people loose there newly formed artificial faith for Bush's policys after seeing four years of failure and put them back on the right path...It has been reported in history, (i think as recently as Jimmy Carters "bounce" after his convention) that the frontrunners bounce hits a wall and falls apart leaving room for a landslide victory in favor of there opponent (Regan/maybe Kerry) Let Bush have Florida/Ohio and Nevada, wel take the rest!

Also notice on that poll that the dems base is strenghening, and "strong kerry" for the first time is almost as strong as "strong bush"...the very weak california that had kerry up by only 2 points now has him leading by double digits, as well as NM and most of the northeast

I dont know how much i can trust this poll in itself, but it does go well as far as my predictions for this election
I dont know if Bush will even get Florida, seems right now they are pretty tied up there and Bush was quite a bit ahead before. Of course, anything could happen before election day.
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Post by Metanis »

Kerry 273
Bush 233

A very interesting look at the Political Futures marketplace. It's predicting a Bush win by a 3-2 margin...
Bullish on Bush? Accumulating Kerry?
‘Political futures’ markets take stock of presidential race

By Mike Brunker
Reporter
MSNBC
Updated: 8:30 a.m. ET Sept. 10, 2004
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Post by Sirton »

Xzion yea I see his bounce fading.
Poll: Bush Bounce Persists
Kerry remains behind, 52%-41%, in a three-way race
Time 9/9
http://www.time.com/time/election2004/a ... 28,00.html



Even the Democrats own polling shows Kerry behind by 3 points.
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

On Florida two polls shows em tied recently only: 49.1 Bush-49.4 Kerry and 46-46 tie.
All other recent poll in Florida: 48-42 Bush, 48-46 Bush, 49-47 Bush, 48-46 Bush. So to me it looks close to a tie there or a 1-2% Bush win.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_v ... _sbys.html

Nevada please?

Look at Wisconsin...Bush is leading in 75% of the polls there aswell.


polls :
ht[url]tp://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html[/url]
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Post by Keverian FireCry »

It's ok if Bush wins, just means the revolution will come sooner. :wink:
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Post by Sirton »

Bring it on :-x
heh
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Post by Metanis »

Keverian FireCry wrote:It's ok if Bush wins, just means the revolution will come sooner. :wink:
The "pussy liberals" who oppose Bush don't have the balls for revolution.

They would have to find and hire mercenaries like Kooky.
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Post by Acies »

Metanis wrote:
Keverian FireCry wrote:It's ok if Bush wins, just means the revolution will come sooner. :wink:
The "pussy liberals" who oppose Bush don't have the balls for revolution.

They would have to find and hire mercenaries like Kooky.
Sorry, if it is between him stealing another election so he can kill a bunch of innocent people, we wouldn't be decent human beings if we did nothing. We know better this time around (I hope).
Bujinkan is teh win!
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Acies wrote:
Metanis wrote:
Keverian FireCry wrote:It's ok if Bush wins, just means the revolution will come sooner. :wink:
The "pussy liberals" who oppose Bush don't have the balls for revolution.

They would have to find and hire mercenaries like Kooky.
Sorry, if it is between him stealing another election so he can kill a bunch of innocent people, we wouldn't be decent human beings if we did nothing. We know better this time around (I hope).
Fortunatley enough people do know better and will be voting Bush.
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Post by Xzion »

Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:
Acies wrote:
Metanis wrote:
Keverian FireCry wrote:It's ok if Bush wins, just means the revolution will come sooner. :wink:
The "pussy liberals" who oppose Bush don't have the balls for revolution.

They would have to find and hire mercenaries like Kooky.
Sorry, if it is between him stealing another election so he can kill a bunch of innocent people, we wouldn't be decent human beings if we did nothing. We know better this time around (I hope).
Fortunatley enough people do know better and will be voting Bush.
If he gets re-elected (which he wont, Kerry is back in the lead now and Bush's numbers will only go downhill) mark my words...he wont last for four more years, weather impeachment, resignation, or even assassination...he wont last
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Xzion wrote:
Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:
Acies wrote:
Metanis wrote:
Keverian FireCry wrote:It's ok if Bush wins, just means the revolution will come sooner. :wink:
The "pussy liberals" who oppose Bush don't have the balls for revolution.

They would have to find and hire mercenaries like Kooky.
Sorry, if it is between him stealing another election so he can kill a bunch of innocent people, we wouldn't be decent human beings if we did nothing. We know better this time around (I hope).
Fortunatley enough people do know better and will be voting Bush.
If he gets re-elected (which he wont, Kerry is back in the lead now and Bush's numbers will only go downhill) mark my words...he wont last for four more years, weather impeachment, resignation, or even assassination...he wont last
What makes you think he is back in the lead? If you look at that pollingreport.com site, you will see Bush is ahead in some and Kerry in others.
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Post by Thess »

Xzion wrote:
Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:
Acies wrote:
Metanis wrote:
Keverian FireCry wrote:It's ok if Bush wins, just means the revolution will come sooner. :wink:
The "pussy liberals" who oppose Bush don't have the balls for revolution.

They would have to find and hire mercenaries like Kooky.
Sorry, if it is between him stealing another election so he can kill a bunch of innocent people, we wouldn't be decent human beings if we did nothing. We know better this time around (I hope).
Fortunatley enough people do know better and will be voting Bush.
If he gets re-elected (which he wont, Kerry is back in the lead now and Bush's numbers will only go downhill) mark my words...he wont last for four more years, weather impeachment, resignation, or even assassination...he wont last
We need a democratic house and senate majority before we can even think of Bush getting impeached.
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Thess wrote:
Xzion wrote:
Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:
Acies wrote:
Metanis wrote: The "pussy liberals" who oppose Bush don't have the balls for revolution.

They would have to find and hire mercenaries like Kooky.
Sorry, if it is between him stealing another election so he can kill a bunch of innocent people, we wouldn't be decent human beings if we did nothing. We know better this time around (I hope).
Fortunatley enough people do know better and will be voting Bush.
If he gets re-elected (which he wont, Kerry is back in the lead now and Bush's numbers will only go downhill) mark my words...he wont last for four more years, weather impeachment, resignation, or even assassination...he wont last
We need a democratic house and senate majority before we can even think of Bush getting impeached.
Bush would also have to do something worthy of being impeached for that to happen.
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Post by Xzion »

Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:
Thess wrote:
Xzion wrote:
Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:
Acies wrote: Sorry, if it is between him stealing another election so he can kill a bunch of innocent people, we wouldn't be decent human beings if we did nothing. We know better this time around (I hope).
Fortunatley enough people do know better and will be voting Bush.
If he gets re-elected (which he wont, Kerry is back in the lead now and Bush's numbers will only go downhill) mark my words...he wont last for four more years, weather impeachment, resignation, or even assassination...he wont last
We need a democratic house and senate majority before we can even think of Bush getting impeached.
Bush would also have to do something worthy of being impeached for that to happen.
lmao! that is honestly some of the funniest shit i have heard in a long, long time
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Post by Silvarel Mistmoon »

You think the President of the US should be impeached because of a act he engaged in during his personal life, an act that was none of the publics business and your calling someone else dense?
Not that other past and I sure future Presidents with have affairs but this one has even stated in his new book and on TV he did it for the wrong reason, because he should.
When he made that statement it came off to me as I am the Pres I can do this if I want to.
While probably humming that song "I got the power"
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Post by Avestan »

maybe I am blind, but I have seen nothing since the republican convention saying Kerry is winning. . .you have a site?
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Post by Kelshara »

Not that other past and I sure future Presidents with have affairs but this one has even stated in his new book and on TV he did it for the wrong reason, because he should.
My head hurts now.
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Post by Sirton »

Kerry is back in the lead now and Bush's numbers will only go downhill
Xzion

What are you smoking bro...why dont you post links of multiple polls showing this. I dont see any of them. The DNC's own poll shows Bush up by 3 even.

Every poll Ive seen has Bush up 2-12 points. And only Newsweek has showed any drop since the convention.

Post links pls.
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Post by Asheran Mojomaster »

Well there is always http://www.electoral-vote.com/ . That is the link that started this thread and according to it if the vote was today Kerry would have 273 and Bush would have 233 Electorial Votes. Not sure how reliable this is but I know right after the RNC it had Bush as being ahead by like 50.
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Post by Acies »

Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:Bush would also have to do something worthy of being impeached for that to happen.
Midnyte, we nearly impeached Clinton for getting head and fibbing about it. This man went to war and killed 50,000+ people because he fibbed about WMD!
Bujinkan is teh win!
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Post by Chidoro »

Avestan wrote:maybe I am blind, but I have seen nothing since the republican convention saying Kerry is winning. . .you have a site?
You go to electoral-vote.com to see the changes and approximately how the election would go if it were held today. It doesn't matter what the overall poll numbers are if Kerry wins the most electoral votes. While I'm a Kerry supporter, it's the reason I can't stand the electoral college process.
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Post by Cartalas »

Acies wrote:
Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:Bush would also have to do something worthy of being impeached for that to happen.
Midnyte, we nearly impeached Clinton for getting head and fibbing about it. This man went to war and killed 50,000+ people because he fibbed about WMD!

Nearly impeached?


Try again he was impeached.
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Acies wrote:
Midnyte_Ragebringer wrote:Bush would also have to do something worthy of being impeached for that to happen.
Midnyte, we nearly impeached Clinton for getting head and fibbing about it. This man went to war and killed 50,000+ people because he fibbed about WMD!
It's like talking to a child. You explain over and over why something is the way it is and yet they still don't get it. It's people like you that make people think maybe there should be a test to determine whether a person possesses even logic and reasoning skills to vote.
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Post by Kelshara »

Ok I now have to clean coffee off of my desk.. damn that was funny Midnyte! Thanks!
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Kelshara wrote:Ok I now have to clean coffee off of my desk.. damn that was funny Midnyte! Thanks!
I aim to please.
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Post by Kelshara »

Wow that one went way over your head didn't it...
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Post by Sirton »

If someone wins by 3+% its about impossible to win the electorial college. Im for the electorial college with a revamp of adding a point per district of the house..elcetorial college was a balance device for the people, so cities or different sections of the country wouldnt way out power the other sections, to makesure the representation was more spread out....

The reasons why that site is good to look at but in no way can say someone is winning are:

It relys on one and the most recent poll they choose...for example Florida is neutral but about 8 of the last 10 polls there have shown it towards Bush and 2 are a tie.

Nevada same issue and Wisconsin similar

Colorado there hadnt been enough polls to put it anywhere, but to say towards Kerry when hes pulled it out of his advertisment campaign and has basically said it was a lost cause. Ok so how is it leaning Kerry?

Those most recent polls could be registered or just lame polling agencies like ARG, Survey USA they are on both sides. Or be like Zogby that has a +3 towards the Dems always till the week before the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html This is a much better site to get a more accurate read..tells if polls registered or likely and keeps up the most recent polls not just the one they choose thats recent.
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Post by Marbus »

Nice to see the latest poll is tied :)
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Post by Sirton »

Hah nice way to spin it to Kerry positive. Of course dont take in to account the last 10 or so polls by better polling agencys that show Bush up 2-12 points. In reality hes prob. up by 5-6 atm to fit all margins of error, so this race still can be extremely tight by the end..

Ohhh Bush was up on the latest Penn. poll so it should show its a bush state...rassmusen just released....lets see if they change it on that map. :)
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Post by Marbus »

But note that Kerry was leading amont registered voters :)

In all actuality though it's still WAY too close to call IMHO. All these polls are like +/- 3-5% So actually in almost every poll they "could" be tied or one could be even farther ahead.

For me, even though Kerry won't win Arkansas, he could, but we don't have enough votes here, I'm just trying to convince some of my best friends, including my best friend, on the terrible mistake they are making in supporting Bush.

Funny thing is, as I think someone pointed out on this board. Most people who are voting for Kerry are like, ah, he's better than Bush at least. But most people voting for Bush are like Freak-o's who ODed on the GW Kool-Aid. It wouldn't matter if there was a video of him killing someone and making fun of Jesus they would say... "oh it's fake" or "well he didn't mean too" I just can't understand it... unless maybe he's the Anti-Christ or something... LOL! j/k

Marb

PS - Clinton was the same way though, if you loved him, you LOVED him, it didn't matter what people said.
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Post by Midnyte_Ragebringer »

Marbus wrote: PS - Clinton was the same way though, if you loved him, you LOVED him, it didn't matter what people said.
That's the thing Marb. Who the fuck loves Kerry? What has Kerry done to earn this love and passion? Nothing. He is mearly rising the "I ain't Bush" thing. It's not going to take him to the presidency.
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Post by Marbus »

Right that is what I'm saying. I don't know of anyone that loves Kerry. However I believe Bush hasn't done anything in the past 4 years to truly help this country... truly help. I beleive he lied to the American public and used our patroitism to garner support for an unjustified war which has thus far cost us over 1000 lives.

And you know what? I owe a LOT of taxes each year. The IRS is killing me but for the first time in years I didn't have to pay... thanks primarily to President Bush. If Kerry is elected I'll probably have to pay more taxes again but to me it's worth it if our schools can get proper funding, more American's have jobs and we can figure out a way to win the peace. That's why I left the Republican part in 1991, because I do care about someone besides myself... heh NOT always, I'm still human right? :) But I have to believe working to take care of all our citizens makes the United States a better place to live, and a better place for my children to grow up.

My opinion :)

Marb
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Post by Metanis »

Kerry 238
Bush 291

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Good news for George Bush, Ralph Nader, you, and me but no good news for John Kerry today. The good news for Bush is that he is now ahead by 1% in Florida , 48% to 47% and 1% in Pennsylvania , neither of which is statistically significant, of course. But this tiny shift in two key states puts him ahead in the electoral college again.

More good news for Bush is the Strategic Vision (R) poll in Ohio. They have Bush ahead 52% to 40%. However, the Rasmussen 7-day tracking poll has Ohio as an exact tie at 47% each. To paraphrase Shakespeare: Something is rotten in the state of Ohio. Given the MoE of 3% these two results are not compatible. The Strategic Vision poll was taken Sept. 10-12 and the Rasmussen poll was taken Sept. 6-12, so the Strategic Vision poll is more recent, but such a large change in such a short time is unlikely. Nevertheless, since Strategic Vision is more recent, it goes into the map and the spreadsheet.
Pity the poor campaign staffs of both candidates. They have to make strategic decisions based on this voodoo witchcraft stuff...

===

PS.. Xzion, where are these polls stating Kerry is in the lead? I still haven't seen you produce. Back on 9/12 when you spouted off
Xzion wrote: If he gets re-elected (which he wont, Kerry is back in the lead now and Bush's numbers will only go downhill) mark my words...he wont last for four more years, weather impeachment, resignation, or even assassination...he wont last
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Post by Winnow »

Mmmm, look at all that Red : )

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Kerry 238 Bush 296

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Welcome back Florida, Ohio, PA, Nevada.

Projected Senate: 48 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent

Edit: updated Map to reflect Sept 17th
Last edited by Winnow on September 18, 2004, 1:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Kelshara »

I'm still working on Ohio!
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Post by Kaldaur »

I don't think anyone truly loved Clinton during the primaries with the rabidness that would later come from his time in the presidency. This has always been the way of elections: is the incumbent doing a good enough job to stay four more years, or do we need a change? I don't know why people are up in arms about the "anyone but Bush". Republicans were saying the same thing about Clinton, and before then there was another attitude that we needed to get rid of the other Bush. It was never about a hugely loyal fanbase to Clinton in 91; rather, the voters, by a plurality, wanted him to go. Kerry might grow into a good president and have the same loyal followers that Clinton and Bush had(have), or he might not. Bush didn't have these loyal followers during the primaries.
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Post by Metanis »

Kerry 211
Bush 307

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The Florida Supreme Court may have just hammered the nail in John Kerry's coffin. They voted that Nader has to be allowed on the Florida election ballot. Kerry can't afford to lose even the few votes that Nader is likely to obtain.
News from the Votemaster
The American Research Group is polling all 50 states. All were telephone polls with a MoE of 4%. The first 20 polls were just released. The rest will follow soon. The first batch were mostly the solid blue and solid red states, including the first polls for Nebraska and Wyoming. Bush has commanding leads of 31% and 36%, respectively in those two states. That's why nobody was willing to spend the money to poll them before. The only two states that changed are Maine (was tied, now Kerry by 4%) and Colorado (was Kerry by 1%, now Bush by 1%).

The poll also concluded that without Nader, Kerry is leading Bush nationally by 48% by 45% and with Nader by 46% to 45% with Nader at 3%. Among likely voters, it is Kerry 47%, Bush 47%, Nader 3%. The Harris national poll (Sept. 9-13) puts Kerry ahead 48% to 47% and the Pew poll (Sept. 11-14) puts Bush ahead 47% to 46%. In contrast, Gallup (Sept. 13-15) has Bush ahead 55% to 42%. It is not clear why Gallup is contradicting three other polls that say the race is tied nationally.

Jimmy Breslin of Newsday had an column yesterday that, if true, makes this website irrelevant. Breslin claims that pollsters do not call the 168 million cell phones in the country. Since many younger voters do not have a land line and just a cell phone, they will be hugely underrepresented in all the telephone polls. Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter, the polls may be greatly underestimating Kerry's strength. Between missing all the people who have only a cell phone and no land line and the 5 million overseas voters, the polls maybe missing a very large section of the electorate. If anyone working for a pollster or telecom company knows ***for sure*** whether pollsters call cell phones, please let me know. But please don't send e-mail on this subject if you are just speculating.

And, as has become normal in recent years, the election is being fought over in the Florida courts. No fewer than three courts, including the Florida supreme court, are now involved in the issue of whether the Reform Party actually exists in Florida and thus whether its nominee, Ralph Nader, can appear on the ballot. Nader did not gather signatures in Florida, claiming to be the nominee of the Reform Party, which if not clinically dead, has been in deep hibernation for years. Just in case you have been living on the back side of the moon for the past four years, Bush won Florida in 2000 by 537 votes with 97,421 votes going to Nader. Jeb Bush is doing his utmost to see that Nader appears on the ballot. Perhaps he has come to believe that the extraordinary intensity of the storms Florida has been experiencing for the past few weeks might be related to global warming and he now thinks that Nader will protect the environment better than his brother.
There's something mighty strange going on with the poll numbers reported here. 3 national polls had the race a statistical tie, but then Gallup comes in 55 Bush to 42 Kerry. While I would like to believe the Gallup poll it appears to be a fluke.

Perhaps it's time for Dan Rather and CBS News to investigate the polling business? </wink>

===

The concern that many younger people don't have traditional telephone lines so their voices are being missed in the polls would appear to be valid too. In all honesty though, these are the people least likely to vote anyway.
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Post by Winnow »

Take a look at the strong Bush states compared to strong Kerry states. Bush has much more "strong" support with a better chance of weak Kerry states to focus on retaking.

In that last poll summary, Ohio switching back to neutral is keeping Kerry above the 200 electoral vote Mendoza line.
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Post by Sirton »

Look at the last 10-15 polls in Ohio all but one basically show Bush ahead. Thats how it should be gauged.

Example New Jersey should be still light Kerry, because of the past 5 or so polls.

Penn. should be a toss up

Ohio should be moderate Bush

Florida Light Bush

Wis. light Bush

ect. ect. ect.

Reason I love http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_v ... _sbys.html Is that it takes the most recent polls and then takes the avg. of all of them. To me it just seems more accurate. RCP avg. in yellow above the polling numbers in each state.

Also in polling history registered voters has been less accurate number than Likely voters(which is likely voters that are registered). Just a FYI.
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Post by Metanis »

Sirton wrote:Look at the last 10-15 polls in Ohio all but one basically show Bush ahead. Thats how it should be gauged.

Example New Jersey should be still light Kerry, because of the past 5 or so polls.

Penn. should be a toss up

Ohio should be moderate Bush

Florida Light Bush

Wis. light Bush

ect. ect. ect.

Reason I love http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_v ... _sbys.html Is that it takes the most recent polls and then takes the avg. of all of them. To me it just seems more accurate. RCP avg. in yellow above the polling numbers in each state.

Also in polling history registered voters has been less accurate number than Likely voters(which is likely voters that are registered). Just a FYI.
Damn you Sirton! Why'd you go and turn me on to http://www.realclearpolitics.com ?

Now, sleep will never come...

:(
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Post by Winnow »

Lots of red in the middle. Need FL and PA back for the lock this election up. The poll is bogus though. Kerry gave up on AZ yesterday yet the poll shows 48% Kerry 49% Bush. I don't think Kerry would have bailed on 10 electoral votes if he was within 1 percent.

Kerry 255 Bush 273

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Post by Thess »

The great divide is a good book retro vs. metro (can read online) on the division of america during the 2000 election. Can read it online at - http://www.retrovsmetro.org/book/

(It has lots of good pictures for you lazy people)
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Post by Winnow »

WTF is up with Minnesota? I want that state red! That damn state screwed up the Reagans landslide victory map as well.

As Sirton pointed out on another thread, FL is probably still Bush as well so this looks closer than it is atm. PA is my target state of the week to recolor.
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Post by Cartalas »

Winnow wrote:WTF is up with Minnesota? I want that state red! That damn state screwed up the Reagans landslide victory map as well.

As Sirton pointed out on another thread, FL is probably still Bush as well so this looks closer than it is atm. PA is my target state of the week to recolor.
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Post by Raistin »

Has anyone noticed a 99.9% of ex CT members are bush supporters, thess being the only smart one. Then you have the 2-4 really retarded racest, on this board.

Fuck ups+Retards=Bush 2004? You bet!
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Post by Sueven »

I was in CT. It was probably about 60% for Gore in 2000.
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Post by Hesten »

Nope Raistin, but i noticed which guild that 2 of the the resident morons belong to .)
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Post by Cartalas »

SI?
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Post by Winnow »

Sueven wrote:I was in CT. It was probably about 60% for Gore in 2000.

I tried to save CT but the liberals booted me! :twisted:

Funny you said that about CT. Celestial Tomb had conservative leadership and steamrolled its way to success and prosperity and then, with the influx of liberals, our officer corps doubled overnight and CT bogged down into countless votes, indecision and big goverment!

Don't let this happen to our country. Keep Kerry out!
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