Initial votes:
19 Bush
7 Kerry
Edit: Phew! Last minute bets went Bush's way.
+125 Kerry
-155 Bush
Betting is open until 9am EST though.
How would the vote go if it happened today?
Hmmm, the final betting line for Bush/Kerry was
+140 Kerry
-170 Bush
I find that so odd considering how close the election appears otherwise. Bush pulled away at the end with the gamblers.
It takes some balls or supidity to bet 1.70 to win 1.00 on Bush unless you're very confident. On the flip side, for Kerry people, you're in fat city and will make great $$.
We'll see tonight how it goes but I would have expected the line near the end to be closer. Something like:
+110 Kerry
-110 Bush
Which would be the equivalent of even with Bush having a home field advantage.
+140 Kerry
-170 Bush
I find that so odd considering how close the election appears otherwise. Bush pulled away at the end with the gamblers.
It takes some balls or supidity to bet 1.70 to win 1.00 on Bush unless you're very confident. On the flip side, for Kerry people, you're in fat city and will make great $$.
We'll see tonight how it goes but I would have expected the line near the end to be closer. Something like:
+110 Kerry
-110 Bush
Which would be the equivalent of even with Bush having a home field advantage.
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Sylvus
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The lines move according to how people bet. My guess is that a lot of people who bet are pro-Bush people (men, money to "waste" on gambling, etc), so I don't know how much stock I'd put in the lines being established for this particular event.
"It's like these guys take pride in being ignorant." - Barack Obama
Go Blue!
Go Blue!
Perhaps. You're not giving those old drunk ladies credit though. I've never followed a betting line on an election before. It will be useful info for the future : )Sylvus wrote:The lines move according to how people bet. My guess is that a lot of people who bet are pro-Bush people (men, money to "waste" on gambling, etc), so I don't know how much stock I'd put in the lines being established for this particular event.
If it turns out to be a sizable win for Bush this year, then I'll be paying extremely close attention to the line next election and even less attention to the polls. If Kerry wins, we can pretty much throw out presidential betting lines as any sort of indicator.
