orly?

[Kilmoll the Sexy]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/12/news/ec ... 2008061210

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retail sales rose more than expected in May, the first full month of payments aimed at stimulating the economy, according to a government report released Thursday.

The Commerce Department reported that total retail sales grew 1% last month, compared to a revised 0.4% gain in April. A consensus of analysts polled by Briefing.com expected sales to rise by 0.5%.

Stripping out volatile auto sales, retail sales rose 1.2% in May, well above the 0.7% increase expected by analysts and the upwardly revised 1% gain posted in April.

"I think a lot of people who forecasted didn't take into account the rebate effect," said Michelle Meyer, economist with Lehman Brothers.

In May, the government began mailing out the bulk of its economic stimulus checks - $600 per person and $300 per child for families. More than $57 billion has been distributed so far, according to Treasury Department figures.

The forecast from Lehman was closer to the mark than the consensus estimate, but what surprised Meyer was the upward revision of April's numbers.

Last month, the Commerce Department reported a 0.2% decline in retail sales for April as opposed to the revised gain. "It suggests stronger consumption in the second quarter," said Meyer.

Consumer spending shows no sign of collapsing, she said, but cautioned that economic growth could remain slow. "Looking past the rebate effect, there are still many strains on the consumer," she said.

May's increase was led by a 2.6% increase in sales at gasoline stations, which are also up 13.8% when compared to a year earlier. Building material sales also rose 2.4% for the month.

The increase in gas station sales may be driven purely by price, according to John McHugh, spokesman for Kwik Trip, Inc., which operates more than 350 gasoline stations and convenience stores in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

"Sales dollars are up, but that's just because the price of gas is up," said McHugh.

Gasoline was selling in the high $3-a-gallon range during May. The national average crossed the $4-a-gallon mark last Sunday, according to a daily survey from automobile group AAA.

When measured by the gallon, gas sales for the chain have been relatively flat, said McHugh. He did say the company expected to see a small spike in sales from the stimulus checks, but added that cash sales are becoming rarer as people rely more on their credit cards.

I guess the forecasters are about as incredibly stupid as most of the lib board posters here. Good to see you all have the potential to be an economic or weather forecaster....maybe a pyschic.

[Ashur]

Spending mine on a GenCon trip this summer, hohoho!

[Canelek]

I want a stimulus check but do not want to get married! =/

[Funkmasterr]

I want a stimulus check but do not want to get married! =/

huh? You don't only get one if you're married.. You have to know that, though.

[Canelek]

To fit in the income bracket, I would need to be married. I do not qualify otherwise! What they did was diminish the amount if you are over a certain income. Glad I don't owe though. After taxes, my income is about the same as if I were under the threshhold, which is kinda gay. I am in a beauty spot where I make a fairly good income, yet my taxes are astronomical. Of course, I could offset that by owning a home. However, my credit is so fuckered that I am still a few years out from getting it to a respectable level.

So, I am stuck in the middle for a bit!

[Ashur]

They saw your new gaming rig and said "No Check for you!!"

[Funkmasterr]

To fit in the income bracket, I would need to be married. I do not qualify otherwise! What they did was diminish the amount if you are over a certain income. Glad I don't owe though. After taxes, my income is about the same as if I were under the threshhold, which is kinda gay. I am in a beauty spot where I make a fairly good income, yet my taxes are astronomical. Of course, I could offset that by owning a home. However, my credit is so fuckered that I am still a few years out from getting it to a respectable level.

So, I am stuck in the middle for a bit!

Sounds similar to my current situation.

[Kilmoll the Sexy]

To fit in the income bracket, I would need to be married. I do not qualify because I am gay.

FIXED!

So, I am stuck in the middle of a manwich for a bit!

Fixed again!

[Canelek]

I am so going to violate you.

[Kaldaur]

Kilmoll, that tape-bandit looks a lot like the guy who created Girls Gone Wild. Everytime I see that picture, I think a filming session went horribly, horribly wrong.

[Zaelath]

Well, personally, I think any economist that says "forecasted" is too stupid to be allowed to speak to reporters, so I kinda stopped reading there.

[Chidoro]

To fit in the income bracket, I would need to be married. I do not qualify otherwise! What they did was diminish the amount if you are over a certain income. Glad I don't owe though. After taxes, my income is about the same as if I were under the threshhold, which is kinda gay. I am in a beauty spot where I make a fairly good income, yet my taxes are astronomical. Of course, I could offset that by owning a home. However, my credit is so fuckered that I am still a few years out from getting it to a respectable level.

So, I am stuck in the middle for a bit!

Welcome to the club. It really ticks me off that my income (and my wife's for that matter) is that the package does not take into account your location. Fuck if I'm considered upper middle class where I live. I may be middle upper middle, but not upper middle. Put my income nearly anywhere else, yeah, the free money wouldn't make much of an impact, but where I live, I could use it.

[Canelek]

Totally man. If I still lived in LA, I would be super pissed. Same goes for NY area, or other high cost of living locations.

Luckily, Portland is still relatively "affordable", so I can't complain too much about not getting a check.

[Wulfran]

I guess my question is this: how long are these "stimulus" cash payments going to keep going out? If its a one off, the effect is going to die off as quickly as it occurred but if its not a one off, how long will it continue and how much of this money is actually making it back into your economy as a percentage? If its not a high one then arguably your gov't might be better served to make direct investment in certain sectors that could become self-sustaining (and create long term employment) with the capital investment.

[Funkmasterr]

I guess my question is this: how long are these "stimulus" cash payments going to keep going out? If its a one off, the effect is going to die off as quickly as it occurred but if its not a one off, how long will it continue and how much of this money is actually making it back into your economy as a percentage? If its not a high one then arguably your gov't might be better served to make direct investment in certain sectors that could become self-sustaining (and create long term employment) with the capital investment.

I have heard nothing of there being more than one "wave" of checks. I would be very surprised if anything more came out, tbh.

[Sabek]

Obama is saying we need another $50 billion in checks in a second round.
Imagine he would suggest that now that he is the democratic candidate.

[Canelek]

As much as I like getting a check in the mail (well, no checks for me with this "plan"), I feel that it pretty much does fuckall for the economy.

[Ashur]

Obama is saying we need another $50 billion in checks in a second round.
Imagine he would suggest that now that he is the democratic candidate.

Actually he wants the $50B to extend unemployment benefits and to fund some other things. No way would he endorse anything the Bush administration has done...

[Forthe]

I'm not sure if the stimulus payments are the sole reason for the jump, you also had a big jump in inflation (0.6%) in May.