Moderators: Funkmasterr, noel
SOURCES AND METHODS
Many people have asked about the sources of my data points, as they are not documented. I have considered doing so, but it is difficult to completely verify every data point on my charts. In fact, they sometimes change from version to version.
My numbers come from a variety of sources, and some games have more than one source. These sources include the following:
a) Official Corporate Data – As my research has grown in popularity and importance, more and more game companies are now providing me with subscriber data directly. You’ll probably be able to spot which ones simply by the fact that they tend to have more data points than other games. My ultimate goal is to have ALL companies in this market providing data in the same way, either through me or directly to everyone in the market, for the benefit of the industry as a whole.
b) Corporate Press Releases – From time to time, particularly whenever a game reaches a particular subscriber milestone, companies will release a press release trumpeting the success of their game. This was much more common in the early years than it is today; Origin/EA, Verant/Sony, and Mythic used to announce their numbers regularly. These days, it’s usually Blizzard.
c) Corporate Documents – Generally speaking, these are public documents for the purposes of financial disclosure and/or investor relations. Many people outside of the financial industry never see these documents, so they may be unaware of their existence. NCSoft is the best example of this; they regularly release quarterly reports that break down their numbers at a far more detailed level than what I provide here. Not all MMOG developers are public, though, and many that are do not routinely disclose numbers down to the subscriber level. Sometimes a number does slip out, though, and if I find it, I’ll use it. Other times these are disclosed in bankruptcy documents or other court records.
d) News Articles – From time to time, reporters for both online and offline publications are able to get a hold of numbers that I have not. Care has to be taken, though, as sometimes a reporter can confuse total sales with subscribers, or may simply regurgitate a number that is many months old. Still, if I find a number that appears to be credible, I will generally use it.
e) Public Comments – Game developers and publishers will sometimes make public comments about their subscriber numbers, even if there’s no official announcement. Rarely, these comments are places like developer mailing lists or message boards; more often, they are related at gaming conferences or press events. Still, if they are not widely reported in a news article, these can be even harder to find out about.
f) Anonymous Sources – More and more of my data is now coming from inside sources: people within the industry who give me numbers on the condition of anonymity. So far most of these have been pretty reliable – if their numbers are not exact, they are usually in the ballpark. As always, I have to use my best judgment in deciding whether or not a source is credible.
g) Educated Guesses – Very rarely, a number will appear on the chat that’s non-sourced and simply my educated guess based on known information. An example might be, “Well, we know they have at least 200K subscribers, and they’ve sold 600K copies, and their revenues are such-n-such, so I’m going to say they have at least 350K subscribers for the purposes of the chart.” I do not do this very often, and if I do, I’ll duly note it in the Analysis section by giving the data an appropriate Accuracy Rating.
In a few cases where numbers seemed to conflict, I have picked the one that seemed the most reliable and which seemed to fit with other data. The upshot of all this is that these numbers should not be taken as gospel. They represent the best research to date.
Despite all of the above, some people continue to question some of the numbers and so I’ve designed a simple, easy to understand ratings system for each MMOG I put on the charts. This rating gives the reader an idea of just how reliable the numbers shown on the graph are, and how much weight one should give them. The ratings are:
A – This indicates that the vast majority of the data points shown come from either official announcements by the companies involved or reliable inside sources. The numbers can be considered reliable, although a few of the data points may be incorrect.
B – This indicates that while some of the data points shown may be official, a substantial number come from press articles, unproven inside sources, or other indirect means. The numbers may not be exact for the MMOG in question, but are certainly in the ballpark.
C – This indicates that most or all of the data points provided are merely industry “best guesses” or are otherwise questionable. Usually, I will not chart MMOGs that rate C or lower. Their numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt.
D – This indicates that no data is available for this game at this time, but I expect to get something chart-worthy on it in the future.
I'd still be playing EQ if I didn't change time zones.. EQ2 is the EQ for Ritalin junkies, and my WoW account is only a month old but I don't see "depth" of gameplay there yet.Breagen wrote:I'd be very amused if EQ still has more players than EQ2.
