Rekaar. wrote:
Can we conclude, assuming the study proves true, that liberating Iraq and Afghanistan will reduce global terrorism?
Let's ignore poverty all together and just talk about your question there, and look back at the article-
Researcher Guy wrote:Instead, Abadie detected a peculiar relationship between the levels of political freedom a nation affords and the severity of terrorism. Though terrorism declined among nations with high levels of political freedom, it was the intermediate nations that seemed most vulnerable...
"When you go from an autocratic regime and make the transition to democracy, you may expect a temporary increase in terrorism," Abadie said.
Basically he concludes that totaliterian regimes like old Iraq didn't see terrorism hardly at all, since it would stomp it flat. Keep in mind he was writing more about domestic terrorism (ie insurgency) than global terrorism (attacks against the policies of massive foreign powers, the US).
The question is how big that 'temporary increase in terrorism' is. I mean, a stable democracy in Iraq might not happen in our lifetime, if it happens at all. Saying that if it reaches the level of personal freedom of the first world is well and good, but if the average Iraqi in the street feels they are being imposed on by a puppet government of the US, the nation is going to be in that murky intermediate area that is vulnerable to and creates terrorism. Sure, if the average Iraqi feels they have a free, democratic government, then definitely there won't be much insurgency, but to think that is a temporary transition is probably very optimistic.
I don't think, 'If people feel they are free and not oppressed they won't become terrorists' is exactly a wild assertion. The problem is I think it would be a pretty hard sell to convince a lot of the middle east that they aren't, in fact, oppressed by US forces or policies in the region.