Poll: Obama rating slips

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Winnow
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Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/20/ ... index.html

OUCH!

Market tanking, Obama leading us into big government, unhealthy stimulus plan crammed down our throats by the democrats....


nice!

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Opinion: Winnow is a douchebag

Post by Sylvus »

when he truncates a headline.
Poll: Obama rating slips, but still high
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by laneela »

"Since nearly all of the decline came among Republicans, this doesn't indicate that the honeymoon is already over," said Keating Holland, CNN's polling director. "Among Democrats, Obama's approval went from 96 percent to 92 percent; among Republicans, it dropped from 50 percent in early February to 31 percent now."
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

I'd pay attention to the Republican #s more than the democrats! They're less sheepish and a better indicator.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Spang »

Or perhaps we could pay attention to the overall number which appears to remain high.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Xyun »

Let me know when Obama's approval rating gets to the mid-20s

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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

Wow, and Obama is already at 30% with Republicans. Democrats can't hold him up forever. He'll plunge at some point. He's not a unifier, that much is certain from the numbers I see.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Spang »

I never realized the only reason Bush had such a high approval rating was due to a tragedy that he could have prevented.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Kilmoll the Sexy »

The Republican vote is why Obama is in the White House right now. If his approval ratings keep dropping in that group, he is DONE in 2012 even if the GOP runs Palin.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Spang »

Kilmoll the Sexy wrote:The Republican vote is why Obama is in the White House right now. If his approval ratings keep dropping in that group, he is DONE in 2012 even if the GOP runs Palin.
The economy will be the deciding factor in 2012. If the economy is better, he's in. If it's still shitty or worse, he's out.

Also, Palin won't make it past the primaries.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Kilmoll the Sexy »

I hope you are right. I would love to be nailin Palin, but I really do not want to see her associated with the White House unless it is some type of cabinet position or maybe Congress. I am sure she is not a complete idiot or she would not have made it into a position as a Governor of a state.....but I really do not want to see her leading the country.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Tristinn »

Winnow wrote:I'd pay attention to the Republican #s more than the democrats! They're less sheepish and a better indicator.
lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Xyun »

I'm not an anti- Wall Street guy, I'm just anti-stupid.
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One of the more unapologetically idiotic notions being advanced by certain conservative commentators (Winnow) is the idea that the poor performance of the stock markets represents a negative reaction to Barack Obama's stimulus package.

For one thing, the trading markets aren't gauges of overall economic health. They are gauges of future anticipated profits for the large corporations that make up their components. In the long run, certainly, these two things should be correlated. But they needn't be perfectly so: an oil price shock, for instance, is possibly good for the profitability of Exxon, while being damaging to the economy at large. Likewise, the announcement of a plan to take over and turnaround Citigroup, perhaps a necessary evil for economic recovery, would certainly not be good for Citigroup's shareholders, who would probably get wiped out in the process.

That's not the the basis of my critique, however. Rather, it's that this line of argumentation often cites "evidence" that flies in the face of Finance 101.

Robust markets like major stock indicies are fairly good at incorporating information. They don't literally have to see an event occur in order to "price in" its effects. On Wednesday, for example, Barack Obama signed the stimulus package into law. Once this occurred, the prospects for the passage of the stimulus rose to 100%. But what had been the probability of the stimulus bill passing the very second before Obama put pen to paper? Probably about 99.999999%, accounting for the small probability of a hostile takeover by space aliens in the intervening moments. The performance of the market in reaction to such events tells us no more about how it feels about them than it does to the rising of the sun.

To the extent that we can learn anything about the market's preference for the stimulus, we'd instead need to look at those moments where the passage of a stimulus package became more or less certain, or its magnitude became significantly larger or smaller than previously anticipated. In the article I linked to above, professors Bittlingmayer and Hazlett claim to have isolated a couple of such moments:

More pointedly, key political victories for the Team Obama spending plan have not been viewed as buying opportunities on Wall Street. A string of negative market reactions began with the December 18 announcement of a stimulus bill of $700 billion (Dow down 2.5%), continued with the January 7 announcement that the actual plan would be “on the high side” (-2.7%) and continued with last week’s 61-36 Senate vote supporting the Administration’s fiscal plan. The White House victory and the new bank bail-out plan announced the following day by Treasury Secretary Geithner were met with a 5% wipe-out in the DJI, and a decline in Treasury bond yields, indicating a “flight to quality.”

Bittlingmayer and Hazlett's memories turn out to be rather selective. Take the December 18th date they describe in their article, when the markets fell by 2.5 percent. On this date, according to the Wall Street Journal Obama had outlined the broad parameters of stimulus package "worth between $675 billion to $775 billion" to Capitol Hill. Was this a surprise to the markets? Not according to contemporaneous accounts of the market's activity that day, which do not so much as mention the stimulus. Moreover, at this time, there were as many complaints that the stimulus was too small as that it was too large. As the Journal then reported:

"The biggest fear is that people will do too little," said one Democratic leadership aide, "like a start-up that fails because it didn't do enough."

Obama aides hope to keep the package below the trillion-dollar mark, a psychological threshold that could carry political consequences, as they fear being accused of adding too much to the country's long-term budget deficit.

One could advance an argument, which would be no less unconvincing than Bittlingmayer and Hazlett's, that the market was behaving badly that day because it wanted more stimulus rather than less.

How about January 7th, the next occasion cited by Bittlingmayer and Hazlett? Bittlingmayer and Hazlett's phrasing to the contrary, there was no major "announcement" about the stimulus bill that day. Instead, there were some off-handed remarks made by Obama at a morning briefing on the economy, which were described by MarketWatch as such:

President-elect Barack Obama said Wednesday that his proposals to jump-start the economy must also build a stronger nation in the long run. Obama said the size of the stimulus package hasn't yet been settled in discussions with lawmakers, but it would likely be on the "high side" of his team's estimates and lower than some economists have been recommending. The latest guesses are that it will be about $775 billion over two years.

That sort of carefully-parsed response is hardly the sort of "shock" that is likely to have altered Wall Street's expectations about the stimulus. Indeed, Wall Street had many better things to be worried about that day between a plethora of dour economic news.

And how about November 24th, when Obama rolled out his economic advisory team and prompted the Wall Street Journal headline "Obama Signals Big Stimulus Plan"? Bittlingmayer and Hazlett forget to mention this date. And little wonder why: the Dow had closed up by almost 400 points.

The fact is, there have been very few surprises in the entire debate over the stimulus package, the passage of which was more or less inevitable from the moment Obama took office, and the eventual size of which -- just under $800 billion -- was in line with the expectations that the markets had held for weeks and weeks. The nearest exception was probably on January 29th, when the initial version of the stimulus passed through the House without a single Republican vote, something which looked as thought it might theoretically imperil the prospects of the bill passing in the Senate. If the market was anti-stimulus, it should have loved this news; instead it dumped about 230 points.

Disclosure of conflict of interest: I own some mutual funds. I'd like to see 'em go up. I'm not an anti-Wall Street guy. I'm just anti-stupid.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

How quickly the libs forget their blame for the markets on Bush. (insert 5 libs remarks. "wasn't me!")

The market at lowest point in lowest in six years! You've destroyed everything Bush has worked on to recover our nation since 911! Lets hope Obama doesn't have to deal with something as devastating as a 911. I'm betting our nation wouldn't do half as well as post 911 with Obama in charge, calling for peace talks and wanting to have tea with the terrorist supporting nations, claiming the Al Quaeda leader isn't so bad because he gave Obama a reach around while fucking him, and America, up the ass.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Xyun »

Winnow wrote: You've destroyed everything Bush has worked on to recover our nation since 911!

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahhahahahahhahahahahhahah.

Don't let facts get in your way Winnow.

Dow Jones at Bush Inauguration - 10,600
Dow Jones as Bush left office - 7,950
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

Xyun wrote:
Dow Jones at Bush Inauguration - 10,600
Dow Jones as Bush left office - 7,950

10,600 was the .com bubble inherited from Clinton. 911 happened after Bush was in office. (because Clinton was fucking interns, causing him to deal with possibly being impeached instead of taking out Bin Laden)
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Xyun »

OK fine.

Dow Jones at its lowest point in 2001 (Sept 21) - 8300
Dow Jones when Bush left office - 7950

Not to mention that dip below 9000 in 2001 was just for 2 weeks. This depression belongs to the leadership that preceded Obama. He'll fix it though. And I'm sure when he does you will come here and give the credit for it being fixed to Bush as well, or the next Rethug that cheats his way into the white house, since facts don't seem to matter to you.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Aslanna »

I liked the John Oliver bit on Daily Show a few weeks ago:
Given the mans track record I'm not confident. How many chances are we going to give this President before we say enough is enough? For 8 long days America has paid the prioce of his failed policies. Layoffs. Foreign Wars. Temeperatures so low water itself is freeziing. The guy has been a disaster. Did you know that on every single Monday of the Obama administration America has lost 50,000 jobs?
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

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Aslanna wrote:I liked the John Oliver bit on Daily Show a few weeks ago:
Given the mans track record I'm not confident. How many chances are we going to give this President before we say enough is enough? For 8 long days America has paid the prioce of his failed policies. Layoffs. Foreign Wars. Temeperatures so low water itself is freeziing. The guy has been a disaster. Did you know that on every single Monday of the Obama administration America has lost 50,000 jobs?
haha. that was pretty funny... link to the video:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index ... tle-Bubble
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Gzette »

Winnow's comments are some of the most short-sided I've ever read on this board. To blame Obama for the continued downturn after being in office for less than 40 days is absurd and ignorant. Are you now blaming Obama for the housing bubble that popped in '07? Even if you can blame Clinton for that (I blame Clinton and Bush...years of deregulation led bankers to feel as if they could do anything. the bankers did, it popped), it is unfair, remarkably childish and partisan to blame Obama.

Anyway the whole thing makes me sick. Banks need to be bailed out, but in the same hat, we're rewarding colossal failure by throwing dump trucks full of money at the culprits. Yet it needed to be done to free up credit markets. I can see how even Jesus' approval rating would drop if he were the one considered in charge. The rating drop likely reflects overall disgust with markets, not Obama's performance. And it's no shocker that people who voted against Obama in Nov., still wish he wasn't elected.

So wallow in your victory Winnow. Oh wait, you still lost. Sheep.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Fairweather Pure »

Winnow is just trolling.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

Hay!

The market is at it's lowest point in 11 years now.

Hay!

That's back when Clinton was president.

Nice work Obama. Worse than anything Bush ever did. Obama's knocked us back more than a decade...and falling. The 70's...they sucked. Lets see if this guy can take us back there.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Leonaerd »

This is more Greenspan's fault than Obama's.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Spang »

Barack Obama is the greatest black president this country has ever had.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by valryte »

Wow, Winnow, I'm sorry to say, and I try to keep the personal insults to a minimum, but you really sound like a douche bag more and more every day. Seriously dude, you need to take a step back. You obviously have no idea how really really stupid you sound sometimes. Don't take this as an insult, more like constructive criticism.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Aslanna »

Fairweather Pure wrote:Winnow is just trolling.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Canelek »

Indeed. Winnow has some of yall by the short curlies. Good form, Winnow, imo.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Drolgin Steingrinder »

Canelek wrote:Indeed. Winnow has some of yall by the short curlies. Good form, Winnow, imo.
Good form? He's just been annoying. He's not even being witty or clever about it. It's like reading a grammatically correct Cart.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Canelek »

I was being sarcastic Mr Drolgyface. :shock:
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Gzette »

I think he's right tho. Think Winnow's just trying to ruffle some feathers. It drew me in. I like to think he's not that retarded.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Truant »

I can't believe you all are just now figuring this out about Winnow.

This has always been his MO.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by miir »

I like to indulge in winnows trolls in the videogame forum but he hasn't been trolling much there lately. :(
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Gzette »

Dow's up today. I guess Obama is awesome and the American people love him. No wait, today's gain is all because of Bush's policies. Tomorrow's loss will be because of Jimmy Carter, followed by a slight dip, which is ... uh ... the legacy of LBJ, I guess. And then a 300-point rally, caused by the dead-people Oscar montage that showed a pic of Charlton Heston as Moses.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Lalanae »

Spang wrote:Image
When I read the 3rd question and saw that "Sticking to Republican policies" = 17%, I seriously TEEHEE'd :D
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

The market will persevere despite our president's negativity.

I expect Obama to finally be positive in his upcoming speech. I'm going to take the opportunity to sell some stocks. If we can't get a couple day rally out of this next speech, Obama my well be the worst president in history concerning the market.

We need a Ronald Reagan type president in office to rebuild America, not some doom and gloom president. His inexperience is showing.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

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your avatar is so appropriate.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Jice Virago »

Winnow wrote:We need a Ronald Reagan type president in office to rebuild America, not some doom and gloom president. His inexperience is showing.
Umm... yeah.

You do realize that his trickle down bullshit is what started a lot of the shit we are in currently? Before you say "Clinton Did It!!!!", yes Slick Willie let a lot of that shit continue, but at least he paid down the deficit. Then in comes W and now we are so far in the fucking hole that our entire civilization is actually in real danger of collapse. Reagan was a fucking retard who was firmly in the pocket of the rich. The only way he was positive was if you were white, straight, wealthy, and lubberz teh Jezus. Anyone else took it in the ass under his watch, especially in the arenas of public education, the environment, and our national infastructure. The twenty years of Reaganomics (with an 8 year Clinton semi-hiatus) destroyed the middle class in this country and can pretty much be indisputedly labled a failure.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

Market bombs again the day after Obama's best attempt at a positive speech.


I managed to make some money in the market today but it was no thanks to Obama. He sucks.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Spang »

IMPEACH OBAMA!!!
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by miir »

Winnow wrote:Market bombs again the day after Obama's best attempt at a positive speech.
-80 points = bomb?
Teehee.



There was a good run leading up to close but all the fuckers who shorted still had to make their money. ;)
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

and another -88 point mini bomb again! I guess it's ok if it keeps going down as long as it's not triple digits!
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Spang »

There's still over 7,000 points left!
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

-80
-88
-119

hey, they're just little drops! oops, that last one is triple digits. We're moving out of mini-bomb territory and into standard market bomb territory. Can maxi bomb be far off?

How's everyone's 401Ks?

Go Obama! Terrorize the markets more. You're doing a great job!
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Aslanna »

Winnow wrote:How's everyone's 401Ks?
Honestly.. There wasn't anything left by the time Bush left office... That turnip has already been bled,
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Xatrei »

The disastrous financial news of the day had nothing to do with the latest decline, I'm sure. The worst GDP decline in 26+ years (during 4Q 2008) that was announced today would have resulted in a 400 point DJIA increase if it wasn't for Obama :roll:
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Winnow
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

Xatrei wrote:The disastrous financial news of the day had nothing to do with the latest decline, I'm sure. The worst GDP decline in 26+ years (during 4Q 2008) that was announced today would have resulted in a 400 point DJIA increase if it wasn't for Obama :roll:

When the DJIA is nearing half of what it was, point drops mean less and percentage drops mean more.

Obama has already crushed the hopes of Americans. As Aslanna said, there's not much left to squeeze. You just keep seeing these little drops day after day. There's less chance for a panic if the drop is slow as it falls to 4K DJIA which some analysts have predicted..
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Xatrei »

Winnow wrote:When the DJIA is nearing half of what it was, point drops mean less and percentage drops mean more.
No shit. I don't think I said or implied anything to dispute that. The point was that the drops over the last month or so, and especially today, have been the result of the awful financial news that comes out in dribs and drabs. It seems that most people are somewhat surprised that the 6.2 drop in GDP for 4Q 2008, along with the other F'd news today, didn't cause a bigger plummet.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Forthe »

Winnow wrote:When the DJIA is nearing half of what it was, point drops mean less and percentage drops mean more.
One could argue that point drops mean twice as much as they used to (percentage wise). :P

Prepare yourself for a 4xxx bottom Winnow. Obama should have nationalized the banks, better to amputate than slowly bleed out.
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Re: Poll: Obama rating slips

Post by Winnow »

Forthe wrote:
Winnow wrote:When the DJIA is nearing half of what it was, point drops mean less and percentage drops mean more.
One could argue that point drops mean twice as much as they used to (percentage wise). :P

Prepare yourself for a 4xxx bottom Winnow. Obama should have nationalized the banks, better to amputate than slowly bleed out.
That's one of the worst lines of text I've ever written on VV! It makes no sense at all as written.
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