Ukraine

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Winnow
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Ukraine

Post by Winnow »

First post! Just in case it's the start of WWIII!
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Re: Ukraine

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:lol:
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Re: Ukraine

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Putin screwed up big time with this one.

It looks like the troops he sent to Ukraine are pretty apathetic and their equipment isn't the best. Even with Russia's overwhelming advantage in military force, they are bogged down taking Kyiv. I would guess they'll eventually take the capital but then will face non stop insurgence. Along with that, the world is pretty much unified against Russia except for China for the long haul now.

The biggest concern here is Putin actually may be a little senile/crazy. It looks like his goal is to retake all the former Soviet States. He seems to have a "little man" complex and is getting pretty old. I could actually see him doing something truly stupid like provoke a NATO country, and ultimately even use tactical nukes. Russians need to overthrow him. It's not like the general Russian population loves him. He's been a dick to them as well. Russia is only 12th in the world in GDP and the only reason they matter is their nukes and natural gas/oil supplies. China is the US's only actual real adversary coming close to the US in GDP but as with the rest of the world, isn't remotely close in military might compared to the US.

Sad for Ukraine. The president seems to be working hard to try and save his country but he's pretty much a dead man walking. No one will intervene beyond sanctions and providing weapons and supplies that are too late to help. Ultimately Putin/Russia is fucked but not before Ukraine takes a beating and we will see how crazy Putin gets before he falls.
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Re: Ukraine

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Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has shown strength that has surprised many observers, but one international expert pointed out how historical precedent bodes poorly for Moscow should its forces be unable to subdue Ukraine quickly under current Russian troop levels.

“The Russian army is overextended and in a precarious position if Ukraine becomes a protracted war,” Seth Jones, vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a social media post.
“Assuming 150,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine and a population of 44 million, that is a force ratio of 3.4 soldiers per 1,000 people. You can’t hold territory with those numbers,” Jones said.

Jones compared the current Russian force ratio to occupations after previous wars around the world, saying successful occupations had force ratios that were “astronomically higher.”

For example, he said:

The Allied forces occupying Germany in 1945 had 89.3 troops to 1,000 inhabitants.
NATO forces in Bosnia in 1995 had 17.5 troops to 1,000 inhabitants.
NATO forces in Kosovo in 2000 had 19.3 to 1,000.
And international forces in East Timor in 2000 had 9.8 to 1,000.

“High numbers of troops and police are critical to establish basic law and order,” Jones said.
“In fact, the number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine aren’t even enough to hold any major cities for long.”

And if Russian occupiers face a guerrilla war in the event the Ukrainian government falls, the odds won’t be in Russia’s favor, he said.

“They will be in serious danger of being picked apart by Ukrainian insurgents.”
Above from CNN of all places but I agree with the assessment.

I'm completely impressed by the worldwide economic sanctions hitting Russia right now. They're getting slammed hard in so many different areas economically.

I'm also bracing for some horrific scenes as Kyiv gets leveled. Putin is pissed because his army really isn't into the fight and now I think it's time for plan B which is destroying what he can't take. Doing as much damage as possible.

Russia is fucked long term but that isn't going to help Ukraine these next few days and weeks. They are seriously screwed in the short term.

Man, that 40 mile long Russian convoy heading to Kyiv would be taken out by US air power so easily. It must frustrate US military intelligence that they can't do anything about it. I hope they can at least get some intelligence and rocket launchers in the hands of Ukraine soldiers. Russia is so far behind the US in military capability but they have overwhelming force vs Ukraine.

I really don't see an end game here that is good for Russia so now you have to wonder just how crazy Putin really is and how much control he has over firing off nukes. This comes down to Putin. It really seems like he doesn't give a shit and wants to go out in style. Better hope Russia has a few mentally stable generals that eventually take Putin out. The Russian people definitely aren't into this war. So many of them have relatives living in Ukraine. Two things have a chance of happening. 1. Putin/Russia manage to take the cities. 2. They can't and raze them to the ground and go scorched earth mode on their way out.

Anyway, much respect for the president of Ukraine and the determination of the under gunned Ukraine army/citizens. I give him a 1% chance at living through this. Either way, there will be "Red Dawn" type resistance for a long time to come.
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Re: Ukraine

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Winnow wrote: February 28, 2022, 11:42 pm Man, that 40 mile long Russian convoy heading to Kyiv would be taken out by US air power so easily. It must frustrate US military intelligence that they can't do anything about it. I hope they can at least get some intelligence and rocket launchers in the hands of Ukraine soldiers. Russia is so far behind the US in military capability but they have overwhelming force vs Ukraine.
Oh man, the long Russian convoy is stalled. Unconfirmed news is saying Ukrainian forces targeting it right now. I hope it's true. Also rumors of some Russians sabotaging their own vehicles, not really wanting any part of this invasion. I believe it. This is "Putin's War". From what I'm seeing a lot of the oligarchs and general Russian people want nothing to do with invading Ukraine. Ukraine is making great use of drones from Turkey as well as a ton of stinger missiles the US has provided to take out quite a few Russian vehicles. I can't see Russia not leveling Kyiv eventually but they are taking way more damage than anticipated.

The sanctions keep coming from major companies. No Apple. No service/parts support for their Boeing and DC airliners. A Ruble is worth 1 cent now.


The sanctions are no joke. These are going to cripple the Russian economy for a long time.It's great but also worrisome. I don't think Putin really expect the slow progress and fierce resistance combined with incredibly strong sanctions. The only positive outcome is if Putin is overthrown relatively soon by the Oligarchs/People of Russia. Otherwise, if Putin is crazy enough, he's going to be backed into a corner soon and could use the nuclear option which will be devastating to everyone. Gotta hope the Russian people see the writing on the wall. Their hearts aren't into it.
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Re: Ukraine

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Winnow wrote: March 2, 2022, 3:36 pm I can't see Russia not leveling Kyiv eventually but they are taking way more damage than anticipated.
Freaking amazing that Ukraine held on and saved Kyiv. It wasn't just me that was fooled thinking Russia had at least the basic competence to use their huge number/equipment advantage to steamroll right to Kyiv.

I've been watching a guy on YouTube that nightly streams a few hours of daily news coverage. He doesn't watch the mainstream media and uses videos uploaded by Ukraine and Russia, verifying their locations to draw the battlemap. Russia finally showed their own map of what Russia has occupied when they claimed "phase one" was over and it looked almost identical to this guy's map so he's doing a good job.

Yesterday Ukraine starting capturing large amounts of Russian soldiers. All of the grunt Russian soldiers are conscripted and watching the video footage are really young, like 18-21 age. Russia is in retreat mode everywhere except the far east and the port city of Maripol. Russia lost more soldiers in the first month (more like half a month) than the US lost in 20 years in Iraq/Afghanistan. 560 Tanks destroyed/disabled and both tank manufacturing plants in Russia are shut down due to lack of parts due to sanctions. I find it funny that one of the parts they lack is ball-bearings for their wheels as that's the same thing they lacked in WWII when the US provided them to Russia.


I fucking hate Putin and probably most of the highers ups (although I don't know any of them)

Here's a fun fact for you:
Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”

400,000 jeeps & trucks
14,000 airplanes
8,000 tractors
13,000 tanks
1.5 million blankets
15 million pairs of army boots
107,000 tons of cotton
2.7 million tons of petrol products
4.5 million tons of food
Fuck Russia. That's a lot of equipment and supplies. I wonder if they ever paid that back. Although he went off script, Biden is right that Putin can not stay in power. I watch a couple Russian YouTube channels where your run of the mill family people video what's going on with the sanctions and prices in stores etc. As with US citizens, the majority are good people but I'm sure they have their share of asshats just like the US does. More than any other war, I really don't get this one. This bullshit war benefits no one but Putin. Rich/Poor Russians are both screwed by sanctions and Ukraine was no threat. This was is purely due to Putin's ego and trying to save his dictatorship. The eighth Russian general of the war is dead but this time they committed suicide due to 1 in 10 of the tanks under his command still being functional.

Even on mainstream news I'm sure you can see that Putin is targeting Civilian buildings and his goal is to do maximum damage to the country before leaving now that he lost his first objective of replacing President Zalensky with a puppet government. I hope Ukraine doesnt settle and kicks the shit out of Russia in the east where they will try and hold the land bridge to Crimea and the two areas they claim support Russia. Ukraine will be increasingly flooded with anti tank and anti air weapons. I hope Putin sticks around in the East so Ukraine can finish off the rest of his army that invaded. It's too late to "settle", Putin has already destroyed multiple cities. Kick those bastards out of Crimea as well.

You absolutely can't trust Putin. No "peace treaty" is worth anything. The only reason Putin would agree to anything would be to regroup so he could attack again. He's a true madman. So many war crimes already and he absolutely would use chemical weapons if NATO wasn't sitting there. After seeing how old and rundown their equipment is and how poorly trained their troops and whatever generals they have left, it would be a joke for NATO/US to destroy them in a conventional war. All Putin can do is threaten nuclear war which he keeps doing. Lets see how long it takes for a couple sane people in Russia to finally remove Putin. No matter how much power Putin holds, I dooubt his (remaining) generals will agree to attack NATO or use nuclear weapons.

This situation is too much like the beginning of WWI and WWII...where the west kept appeasing, "let him take that country and maybe he'll stop". Be very thankful to the people of Ukraine (up to this point). Their resilience has given us a chance to perhaps stop WWIII if the combination of Russia getting its ass kicked and embarrassed/humiliated militarily along with crushing sanctions turn out to be enough for a regime change.
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Re: Ukraine

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I have roots going back to the Ukraine area and I wanted to travel there someday. I can't find the Ellis Island papers but the 1940 US Census lists Russia as place of birth but from my (limited) research they were in the Kiev (sp!) vicinity. But it's really been hard to find information as his American name wasn't the same as what was used over there. And all the documents have it handwritten and of course it's not the greatest handwriting so there's no consistency there.

Anyway, with what's happening now I doubt I ever will make it there. I imagine a lot of historic stuff is being destroyed as well. Hopefully they are able to resist a long time.

Fuck Putin.
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Re: Ukraine

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Aslanna wrote: March 27, 2022, 4:43 pm I have roots going back to the Ukraine area and I wanted to travel there someday. I can't find the Ellis Island papers but the 1940 US Census lists Russia as place of birth but from my (limited) research they were in the Kiev (sp!) vicinity. But it's really been hard to find information as his American name wasn't the same as what was used over there. And all the documents have it handwritten and of course it's not the greatest handwriting so there's no consistency there.

Anyway, with what's happening now I doubt I ever will make it there. I imagine a lot of historic stuff is being destroyed as well. Hopefully they are able to resist a long time.

Fuck Putin.
No direct roots myself in Ukraine but my ex-wife was 100% Ukrainian 2nd generation, her parents immigrated to Canada then moved to the US. What's interesting is her father was a nuclear physicist that worked at Los Alamos. Ukrainian scientists had a big part in developing nuclear weapons for the Soviet Union and they gave up their nukes to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union with the understanding that Russia would never invade them. I would like to restate, you can't trust Russia, and specifically Putin about anything. So many shared relatives between Russia and Ukraine. It's fucking insane to go in there and level cities and indiscriminately kill civilians. That's the work of a madman, not the Russian people.

It appears the government of Ukraine will survive but the country has been devastated. Ukraine should not accept any peace treaty where they give up land and the crushing sanctions on Russia should not be lifted ever until the people of Russia find a way to remove Putin from office, and even then, war reparations are due to Ukraine to help rebuild it. NATO needs to provide as much military and humanitarian aid as possible to allow Ukraine to continue to kill or capture Russian soldiers and destroy as much of Putin's war machine as possible. Maximum pain needs to be applied to Russia and I'm willing to pay high gas and food prices for that to happen. Putin's propaganda and war tactics (nazis etc) are straight out of a WWII playbook. That kind of propaganda doesn't work in the age of the internet. Young conscripted demoralized Russian soldiers, poor leadership and logistics and mostly ancient equipment. You can't just accept a "peace treaty, otherwise Putin will go into Finland, Estonia etc, level it's cities then sign another "peace treaty" then do it again whenever he fees like it.
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Re: Ukraine

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I should probably change my avatar.
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Re: Ukraine

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Sanctions incoming!
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Re: Ukraine

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Resist!
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Re: Ukraine

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The Good

Ukraine withstanding the inept Russian attack, forcing Putin to withdraw from Kyiv and western Ukraine

The pilots that flew the two helicopters into Russia and blew up some oil storage tanks. Russia hilariously complained about it. You invade a country, level their cities, kill countless civilians and then complain about that country attacking a military target? Fuck Russia.

The Bad

I watched a video as Ukrainian forces drove down a liberated city. In just that video alone I saw around 20 executed civilians lying in the street with their hands tied behind their backs. No mercy for Russia. Russia has been ruthless and not a fuck was given about civilians or civilian structures. The mass grave of potentially 300 bodies, the multiple videos I've seen with captured Russian soldiers with jewelry in their pockets, the rape of Ukrainian women.

The Future

Can't trust Putin. ZERO faith in any peace treaty being honored by Russia. Sanctions must stay in place indefinitely until Putin is removed from office one way or another. The government that replaces Putin must pay to rebuild Ukraine. No land must be given to Russia in eastern Ukraine and eventually Ukraine should get Crimea back.

Russia has devastated Ukraine and has attempted genocide. The Russian people deserve what they get until they grow the courage to oust Putin.

If this war continues, I hope Ukraine starts conducting more attacks on Russian soil, taking out their railways and any energy facilities like gas and oil near the border that is being used to fuel and supply the invading forces in Russia. Military and humanitarian aid needs to increase even more for Ukraine from NATO/US. Absolutely flood Ukraine with anti tank, anti air weapons. The Russian military/leadership are morons and Putin will continue to send 18-21 year old conscripted soldiers to die in Ukraine. Kill every one of them that doesn't surrender and send the picture of the dead solider along with a bundle of pictures of dead Ukrainian citizens and bombed out cities to their mothers. Create a dead Russian soldier webpage, the Russian people will eventually find it.

Ukraine is not a threat to the Russian people. It's not even a threat to Putin's dictatorship. Putin has some fantasy about re-establishing the Soviet Union states and is a combination of Stalin/Hitler level "insane" where his battle strategy is horrible and he doesn't care one bit how many Russians die. There are a lot of circumstances where it doesn't matter if you take out the leader. With Putin, that's not the case. This is as much of one man responsible as I've seen in a long time. Sure there are plenty of ass hat Russian oligarchs but the vast majority of them are losing way more than anything they could gain by conquering Ukraine. Maybe in 20 years, McDonalds will return to Russia and they'll get their first non Chinese tech equipment again.

How long will Putin stay in power? I'm going with six or less months if the sanctions stay in place as they should with or without an end to the war.
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Re: Ukraine

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Russia-Ukraine live updates: Russia has lost 15-20% of combat power, US says

Russia hopes to recruit upwards of 60,000 new troops, according to the U.S.
They've already lost around 20K troops. Those 60K will eventually die if they head into Ukraine.
Recent estimates put Russian casualties at 100,000+

If you ever are lacking entertainment, watch clips on reddit or twitter (Youtube censored) of Ukraine drones dropping bombs on Russians. I don't like senseless killing but in this case, with Russia invading Ukraine for the reason of "De Nazification", I'm all for it.

It's amazing how willing Putin is to throw bodies into the fight. He really doesn't give a damn. It's a slaughterfest inside Ukraine for Russians. Spang needs to fly over to Russia and get that revolution rolling to oust Putin.
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