good article

Xzion · Post by **Xzion** » August 1, 2004, 5:33 pm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032105/

Rove's Blunder

How Bush wrote Kerry's acceptance speech.
By William Saletan
Posted Thursday, July 29, 2004, at 11:18 PM PT

I don't know how much of John Kerry's acceptance speech the candidate penned himself. I don't know who suggested which lines, how many drafts there were, or who edited them. But I can tell you who wrote the speech: George W. Bush.

The power of the speech, reflected in a deafening series of ovations that consumed the FleetCenter tonight, came not from Kerry's biography or the themes he brought to the campaign two years ago. It came from his expression of widespread, pent-up outrage at the offenses of the Bush administration.

First Kerry released the outrage at America's disrepute around the world. Recalling his boyhood days in West Berlin, he said, "I saw the gratitude of people toward the United States. … I am determined now to restore that pride to all who look to America."

Explosion of applause.

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He released the outrage at the debunked and shifting rationales for the Iraq war. America must be "true to our ideals," he said. "And that starts by telling the truth to the American people."

Explosion.

He released the outrage at abuses of executive power. "I will have a vice president who will not conduct secret meetings with polluters to write our environmental laws," he said. "And I will appoint an attorney general who will uphold the Constitution.'

Explosion.

He released the outrage at corporate scandal. "Next January," he said, "Americans will be proud to have a fighter for the middle class to succeed Dick Cheney as vice president."

Explosion.

He released the outrage at the overextension of the American military, its people, and their families. "We will end the backdoor draft of the National Guard and reservists," he said.

Explosion.

He released the outrage at the hundreds of billions of dollars in deficit spending in Iraq. "We shouldn't be opening firehouses in Baghdad and closing them down in the United States of America," he said.

Explosion.

He released the outrage at the president's attempt to end local disputes about marriage by amending the Constitution. "Let's never misuse for political purposes the most precious document in American history, the Constitution of the United States," said Kerry.

Explosion.

He released the outrage at the partisan use of God's name. "I don't want to claim that God is on our side," said Kerry. "As Abraham Lincoln told us, I want to pray humbly that we are on God's side."

Explosion.

Kerry's Vietnam biography was central to the speech not as a sword but as a shield. It entitled him—and through him, every critic of Bush's foreign policy who has felt too intimidated to speak out—to repudiate the administration. "That flag flew from the gun turret right behind my head," said Kerry. "It was shot through and through and tattered, but it never ceased to wave in the wind. It draped the caskets of men that I served with and friends I grew up with. … That flag doesn't belong to any president. It doesn't belong to any ideology. It doesn't belong to any political party. It belongs to all the American people."

Massive explosion.

At one point, Kerry acknowledged the Democratic presidential rivals whose pet issues and messages he had appropriated. "Thank you for teaching and testing me," he said. But those issues weren't created by the Democrats. They were created by Bush. From deficits to deregulation to Iraq, Bush has handed the Democrats all the issues they need.

The theory behind Bush's hard-line style of governance came from his chief political adviser, Karl Rove. Rove believed that Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 because millions of conservatives stayed home. He believed that Bush's father lost the 1992 election by alienating the right and creating a Republican primary challenge by Pat Buchanan. So, on issue after issue, the current President Bush has played to his base. On Rove's theory, every step to the right earns Bush another conservative vote.

That calculation is correct. But it's only half the story. For every conservative voter who's inspired to turn out for Bush because of his unyielding conservatism, there's a liberal voter who's inspired to turn out for Kerry. That's why Kerry has had no trouble uniting his party after the primaries. It's why the FleetCenter exploded tonight at every one of Kerry's applause lines. And it's why Kerry can now move aggressively to the middle without fear of losing the left.

In his determination to unite the right, Bush hasn't just united the left. He has lost the center. Look at last week's New York Times/CBS News poll of registered voters. "Do you think the result of the war with Iraq was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq or not?" Fifty-nine percent say it was not. "Which do you think is a better way to improve the national economy—cutting taxes or reducing the federal budget deficit?" Fifty-eight percent say reducing the deficit. "When it comes to regulating the environmental and safety practices of business, do you think the federal government is doing enough, should it do more, or should it do less?" Fifty-nine percent say more.

One more Bush voter on the right, balanced by one more Kerry voter on the left, plus the tilting of one more voter in the middle toward Kerry, is a net loss for the president. That's the lesson of this administration, this election, and this convention. Kerry doesn't have to write any good lines. He just has to read them.

Good article, and similar to my theory on why Bush's ratings are so low and how he will loose the election...badly

Karae · Post by **Karae** » August 1, 2004, 6:08 pm

Wow, a liberal opinion piece in the mass media... what's the world coming to?

I must say, I agree with the opinion put forward - Kerry in a landslide!

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » August 1, 2004, 6:26 pm

I would give anyone (lets say 5 people max) 3:1 odds that either Bush wins or Kerry wins by less than 4 points. Lets say $10 bets, so that would be my $30 against anyone else's $10. Just in case anyone wanted to try to make some money on the SURE LANDSLIDE VICTORY!

ps. the popular vote

pss. I will also pledge to give all my winnings to VV

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » August 1, 2004, 6:38 pm

How about this one?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New polls gave a mixed picture on whether Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) got a "bounce" from the party's convention, and a CNN-USA Today Gallup poll on Sunday even showed the Democratic ticket trailing the Republicans' among likely voters.

But a Newsweek poll released on Saturday said Kerry gained a four-point boost in the polls from the Democratic National Convention held last week in Boston.

Kerry had been hoping for a measurable surge in public approval, known as a bounce, which sometimes has given nominees a double-digit boost in the polls following their four days in the spotlight at the convention.

Democrats this year have said the closely divided electorate and relatively small number of undecided voters made a big bounce unlikely.

The CNN-USA Today poll of about 1,000 respondents conducted on Friday and on Saturday showed President Bush (news - web sites) garnering 50 percent to 47 percent for Kerry among likely voters. Bush trailed Kerry among likely voters earlier in July, 47 percent to 49 percent.

Ouch. And this with the Republican Convention still to come.

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » August 1, 2004, 11:24 pm

Kerry's people have been saying they did not expect a gain in the polls, and Bush's people were projecting huge gains. That way, if you listen to Bush's tent, it appeared to be a huge setback for Kerry. When even polls are politically charged, just toss em out and vote in November.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » August 2, 2004, 12:23 pm

Beuller. . . .Bueller. . . .Beuller. . .

cmon, don't any of you want to donate to VV? I thought it was going to be a HUGE LANDSLIDE VICTORY!

Post by **Sylvus** » August 2, 2004, 12:28 pm

I'll take that action. $10 that John Kerry wins by > 4.0% of the popular vote, and I pledge my winnings to the vv account.

Cartalas · Post by **Cartalas** » August 2, 2004, 12:44 pm

Sylvus wrote:I'll take that action. $10 that John Kerry wins by > 4.0% of the popular vote, and I pledge my winnings to the vv account.

Watch out guys this is a trick bet, Notice the popular vote.

Post by **Sylvus** » August 2, 2004, 2:06 pm

Cartalas wrote:
Sylvus wrote:I'll take that action. $10 that John Kerry wins by > 4.0% of the popular vote, and I pledge my winnings to the vv account.

Watch out guys this is a trick bet, Notice the popular vote.

Can you even read?

Avestan wrote:ps. the popular vote

pss. I will also pledge to give all my winnings to VV

Voronwë · Post by **Voronwë** » August 2, 2004, 2:45 pm

i think it will be very close, no matter who wins.

Kilmoll the Sexy · Post by **Kilmoll the Sexy** » August 2, 2004, 3:24 pm

If it is a close vote, I will put my faith in the group that has shown they know how to punch the right holes.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » August 2, 2004, 3:27 pm

It will be close no matter what. I think circumstances favor Bush to win though.

I say that because Kerry must work harder and what I'm seeing on these pages from Kerry supporters is sort of wishful thinking that some sort of shift will take place between now and the election. That hope was setback after the poor boost from the convention. From here on out, it's all Bush positives that will influence the vote.

-Republican Convention
-Terror threat levels for the olympics and the elections
-Economy improving (whether you think it should have been better or not at this point)
-Noone appears to care about Kerry's "heroics" or Bush's history so debating that all day isn't going to influence anything. Clinton was a draft dodging, substance abuser and people loved him so Kerry's attempts to discredit Bush in this respect is a huge waste of time.

Realistically, it's going to be very hard for Kerry to win.

Kluden · Post by **Kluden** » August 2, 2004, 3:44 pm

Dude...you totally forgot the debates...

Voronwë · Post by **Voronwë** » August 2, 2004, 4:52 pm

the debates are going to be pretty important. Quite possibly more important than the conventions.

I think we are going to see the White House do a lot of stalling and roadblocking of the debate proceedings, because they know they are at their worst their.

Xzion · Post by **Xzion** » August 2, 2004, 5:10 pm

Voronwë wrote:the debates are going to be pretty important. Quite possibly more important than the conventions.

I think we are going to see the White House do a lot of stalling and roadblocking of the debate proceedings, because they know they are at their worst their.

Not quite possibly, they will be, and they will be the deciding factor of this election...Kerry is up 4 or 5 points now, by next monday he will be up 7-9 points

Mak · Post by **Mak** » August 2, 2004, 7:53 pm

Xzion wrote:
Voronwë wrote:the debates are going to be pretty important. Quite possibly more important than the conventions.

I think we are going to see the White House do a lot of stalling and roadblocking of the debate proceedings, because they know they are at their worst their.
Not quite possibly, they will be, and they will be the deciding factor of this election...Kerry is up 4 or 5 points now, by next monday he will be up 7-9 points

Do you really think a mispronounced word or two is going to make such a big difference, considering the ideologies involved? I know it's fashionable to say GWB is dumb and can't speak to save his life, but will it really be so bad that votes get changed?

I ask- who doesn't mispronounce a word once in awhile? Especially if we had a camera shoved in our faces every time we walk out of the door? I know I do, and I'd bet everyone here slips up verbally on occassion. Some people might even look at his less than perfect speach to mean that he's a more regular guy than some stuffy, always perfectly spoken politician with nothing to say.

Hell, some of you couldn't type a perfectly constructed and typed post here if your life depended on it, and we're supposed to give your opinion any credence? Granted, none of you are the President of the United States, but to me a man's ideas are more important than how the nit-picking gramatical microscope judges him.

To me that whole line of thinking is just grasping at straws, with no more merit than judging them by their physical appearance.

As to his performance beyond pronunciation, I'd be willing to bet he'll do fine with the content of his message. He will be as adept at dodging actual questions and responding with his pre-rehearesed answers as any politician, including John Kerry, and at the end of the day it will come down to same thing it always does- liberal and conservative at the voting booth.

Dregor Thule · Post by **Dregor Thule** » August 2, 2004, 7:57 pm

The debates will go something like this. Kerry will come off looking good next to Bush, nothing of any substance will be said on either side, and Bush will stumble and stutter over so many words you'd think he was lip synching to a broken record. Of course this won't change a damn thing and most peoples opinions won't be swayed by the debates, because hey, you guys have been listening to Bush stumble and stutter for 4 years now.

Funkmasterr · Post by **Funkmasterr** » August 2, 2004, 8:13 pm

It's strange that I haven't seen the article cited here where one of kerry's friends he served with said that all his stories about his medals were lies. Not to mention the fact that he was never in a hospital for any of the times he was "injured". I will look for the article to cite there, just can't remember where I found it.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » August 2, 2004, 10:05 pm

Both Bush and Cheney and very underrated debaters (especially Cheney).

Bush is at his worst when he is reciting speeches, but he is at his best when it is off the cuff or responding in real time.

Cheney is a brutal debater and anyone who has seen him knows that he will hold up to anyone who is against him.

Frankly, the low expectations of Bush/Cheney in the debates is going to be a plus for them when they perform well above expectations. It happened against Gore and will happen now.

Xzion · Post by **Xzion** » August 2, 2004, 10:14 pm

Mak wrote:
Xzion wrote:
Voronwë wrote:the debates are going to be pretty important. Quite possibly more important than the conventions.

I think we are going to see the White House do a lot of stalling and roadblocking of the debate proceedings, because they know they are at their worst their.
Not quite possibly, they will be, and they will be the deciding factor of this election...Kerry is up 4 or 5 points now, by next monday he will be up 7-9 points
Do you really think a mispronounced word or two is going to make such a big difference, considering the ideologies involved? I know it's fashionable to say GWB is dumb and can't speak to save his life, but will it really be so bad that votes get changed?

I ask- who doesn't mispronounce a word once in awhile? Especially if we had a camera shoved in our faces every time we walk out of the door? I know I do, and I'd bet everyone here slips up verbally on occassion. Some people might even look at his less than perfect speach to mean that he's a more regular guy than some stuffy, always perfectly spoken politician with nothing to say.

Hell, some of you couldn't type a perfectly constructed and typed post here if your life depended on it, and we're supposed to give your opinion any credence? Granted, none of you are the President of the United States, but to me a man's ideas are more important than how the nit-picking gramatical microscope judges him.

To me that whole line of thinking is just grasping at straws, with no more merit than judging them by their physical appearance.

As to his performance beyond pronunciation, I'd be willing to bet he'll do fine with the content of his message. He will be as adept at dodging actual questions and responding with his pre-rehearesed answers as any politician, including John Kerry, and at the end of the day it will come down to same thing it always does- liberal and conservative at the voting booth.

I wasnt even referring to his studdering, but i guess that will make him look bad too against an intellegent individual. I was talking about Kerrys responses to the issues, people will realize when they go off face to face that Kerry is the better man

Dregor Thule · Post by **Dregor Thule** » August 2, 2004, 10:49 pm

Funkmasterr wrote:It's strange that I haven't seen the article cited here where one of kerry's friends he served with said that all his stories about his medals were lies. Not to mention the fact that he was never in a hospital for any of the times he was "injured". I will look for the article to cite there, just can't remember where I found it.

Uh, those articles have been cited here to hell and back (short trip on these forums).

Funkmasterr · Post by **Funkmasterr** » August 3, 2004, 2:18 am

Ah, my bad. Haven't checked in a few weeks.

kyoukan · Post by **kyoukan** » August 3, 2004, 3:17 am

Avestan wrote:Both Bush and Cheney and very underrated debaters (especially Cheney).

Bush is at his worst when he is reciting speeches, but he is at his best when it is off the cuff or responding in real time.

Cheney is a brutal debater and anyone who has seen him knows that he will hold up to anyone who is against him.

Frankly, the low expectations of Bush/Cheney in the debates is going to be a plus for them when they perform well above expectations. It happened against Gore and will happen now.

bush has only ever participated in one debate ever. and it was against gore. I'm not sure where you are getting this underrated debater thing from because the only debate he has ever been in on TV is the 2000 election debate. considering the fact he is a terrible public speaker, doesn't think well on his feet at all and has the republican tendency to lie every time he opens his mouth I'm not sure where you are coming from with this whole omg underdog come from behind debating champion angle, other than the fact you are so partisan that you would call Bush a disabled puerto rican woman with a perfectly straight face if you thought it would help him win the next election. I honestly don't think there has been a worse debator in presidential politics in the last century.

the only thing bush has going for him is his golly gee johnny paycheck hey look I'm a stupid yokel just like you everyman demeanor, that lower middle class white males tend to value. like simplicity and intellectual laziness is something to be valued.

cheney couldn't debate a child right now and not come off badly. the most intelligent rebuttal he's ever made was "go fuck yourself." he's a more accomplished liar than bush is though. unfortunately he's buried himself in so many lies that I don't think even he knows when he's telling the truth anymore. however it will be fun watching him repeat the same lies, take it back and repeat it again in the same sentence.

Markulas · Post by **Markulas** » August 3, 2004, 3:51 am

Makes it kinda simple then: Kerry should win.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » August 3, 2004, 2:56 pm

While I do agree that Edwards is a good speaker, I think Kerry looks like a beached seal on botox when he talks. I am looking forward to the debates because on the issue I see as the most important (the economy), Kerry's position is very weak.

His proposal to subsidize companies that do not hire outside of the Country is ridiculous from an economic standpoint. It is peddling to voters who think it is a good idea but have no clue how to measure the long term ramifications of such a move.

The other side of that coin is that it is hard for Bush to yell that down because at first glance, everyone thinks it is a good idea to keep jobs at home. What is harder to see is the long term impact in the US and the impact this would have on the economies of Western Europe (it would cause a huge recession there depending on the scale of the subsidies).

The first jobs to come home due to a move like this will not be India (you simply can't subsidize enough to make it worth it). The first jobs will come from Europe and Canada most likely. I think it is mildly ironic that the candidate who says we need to open up more internationally is supporting a plan which is going to hit our economic partners incredibly hard. I could literally write for 4 hours about the other reasons why this is a bad idea, but this is one that I think gets overlooked.

Zaelath · Post by **Zaelath** » August 3, 2004, 3:34 pm

Avestan wrote: Bush is at his worst when he is reciting speeches, but he is at his best when it is off the cuff or responding in real time.

That's the most laughable statement I've ever read. People have been making a good living from Bush's inability to speak in public for a good reason; he's useless.

In fact, I would say the opposite is almost certainly true, or as Homer put it; "Ooh, he card reads good".

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » November 4, 2004, 12:54 am

Sylvus wrote:I'll take that action. $10 that John Kerry wins by > 4.0% of the popular vote, and I pledge my winnings to the vv account.

gotta call you on this one syl. Can an admin please let me know that this has been donated in my glorious name? Congratz VV.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » November 5, 2004, 4:18 pm

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » November 12, 2004, 10:41 pm

bump. No, not giving up. People should honor bets.

Post by **Xouqoa** » November 12, 2004, 11:06 pm

Sylvus is out of town at the moment, and has been all week. Might want to PM him about this instead of bumping it non-stop.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » November 13, 2004, 5:13 pm

much more fun to do it publicly, but I will Pm him next week if he has not yet replied.

Kaldaur · Post by **Kaldaur** » November 13, 2004, 6:57 pm

Good job calling him out Avestan! Keep bumping, pretty soon someone may pay attention.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » November 20, 2004, 4:06 pm

for the love of bump, bump. Sending PM now.

Xyun · Post by **Xyun** » November 20, 2004, 4:36 pm

Sylvus is at the Michigan / Ohio St. game, bumping it today is really pointless. I'm sure he will pay you.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » November 20, 2004, 4:41 pm

Xyun wrote:Sylvus is at the Michigan / Ohio St. game, bumping it today is really pointless. I'm sure he will pay you.

Ive been bumping for 3 weeks. . .I am in no rush, but I will continue to be a pain in the ass until paid.

Zaelath · Post by **Zaelath** » November 20, 2004, 7:31 pm

Avestan wrote:
Xyun wrote:Sylvus is at the Michigan / Ohio St. game, bumping it today is really pointless. I'm sure he will pay you.
Ive been bumping for 3 weeks. . .I am in no rush, but I will continue to be a pain in the ass until paid.

That sounds like extortion! If it wasn't for the fact that we all know you'll still be a pain in the ass after you're paid too.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » November 20, 2004, 7:33 pm