Investing on the election

[kyoukan]

hurr hurr buy stocks now and they will go up 10% after the election because stocks go up 10% after an election.

you make even jim cramer look like an informed wall street investor by comparison. and like less of a pedophile.

[Leonaerd]

The Market is due for a downward trend. ~ -30% of recent gains from the past few months. Same pattern from 1900 through 2008 during election years. Either this is the first year ever it's going to buck the trend or it's going down.

Looks like a rational consideration.

[Aabidano]

What Winnow and Avestan say would likely work out well enough, enough people will do it to make it self-fulfilling.

[Jice Virago]

Plus Trust Fund babies do not comprehend the value normal people place on stability in their finances. If Kyou is sucking dick for dollars at least she is working for her money and probably values her investments more. Its easy to be cavalier when you are playing with daddy's money.

[Boogahz]

Sold all my stocks today (~10% return since Feb.) and put money into a couple of domestic real estate ETF's. (REZ is an example). I think we are headed into a rough stretch for stocks in the next 6-9 months.

Seriously.. Who manages your finances... The Cookie Monster?

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2012 to 09/25/2012 is 14.2%

Not gangbusters.. But surely better than -10%. I'd be happy to maintain 8% that all the financial advisers use as the 'average'. We'll see!

But yeah I agree somewhat. Just as I start to get back what I lost I'm sure something shitty will happen to wipe that out again.

He said ~10, not -10

[Aslanna]

He said ~10, not -10

omg I fail at reading! I blame fonts.

[Winnow]

CALGARY/TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian markets could face a bloody opening on Monday after the government blocked the C$5.17 billion ($5.22 billion) acquisition of Progress Energy Resources Corp by Malaysian state oil company Petronas , raising questions about other, bigger bids and about Canada's willingness to let foreign investors in.

Canadian Industry Minister Christian Paradis said late Friday night that Petronas' bid for Progress -- one of the largest owners of exploration lands in the gas-rich Montney shale region in northeastern British Columbia -- would not provide the "net benefit" for the country required by Canada's foreign investment laws.

Investors had expected a favorable decision on the bid by the minister, especially given Petronas' pledge to help spur Canada's nascent liquefied natural gas export industry by building an LNG export facility on the country's Pacific coast.

But Paradis' veto also raises doubts over the outcome of Chinese oil group CNOOC's <0883.HK> C$15.1 billion offer for oil producer Nexen and is expected to weigh on other Canadian firms hoping to tap the foreign investment needed to harvest their vast energy reserves and the mood among investors is somber.

"We're going to see sell-offs all around and gore on the floor for Progress and Nexen," said Chris Damas, an independent analyst with BCMI Research.

Still, the ruling Conservatives say the refusal is not an issue. Petronas and Progress have 30 days from last Friday to convince the Canadian government to reconsider the decision. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty confirmed on Sunday that the government is willing to negotiate.

"I'm not involved in those discussions directly. The minister of industry is," Flaherty said in an interview on CTV's "Question Period". "I'm sure they'll continue to work on it. There's another period of time during which they can continue to have discussions and try to satisfy the concerns that the Department of Industry has."

Along with Progress and Nexen, some analysts think that mid-sized energy companies operating, like Progress, in the Montney shale-gas region of northeastern British Columbia are most likely to be hit by selling pressure when the Toronto Stock Exchange opens on Monday.

"The intermediate (oil exploration and production) group is significantly impacted by the Progress/Petronas decision, reflective of a high weighting to gas-focused Montney producers," Greg Pardy, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, said in a research note.

"We expect the group to be under considerable pressure during Monday's trading session and believe that as of Friday's close, about 15 to 20 percent of a (merger and acquisition) premium is currently 'baked in' to the Montney stocks."

Even if Canada reconsiders its decision, the damage to the country's reputation as politically stable place to invest may be fixed less easily.

The deal is the second major foreign takeover blocked by Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government in as many years, following the 2010 rejection BHP Billiton's $39 billion bid for Potash Corp , the world's largest fertilizer maker.

Now investors are trying to figure out how much political risk has to be factored into potential Canadian investments.

Along with the Petronas and Potash decisions, the market has also been unsettled by the decision on Thursday by Canada's broadcast regulator to block BCE's C$3 billion bid for Astral Media because the deal would give too much power to BCE, Canada's biggest telecoms company and the owner of numerous TV and radio assets.

As well, opposition from the Quebec government last month convinced Lowe's Cos Inc to walk away from a C$1.8 billion unsolicited for Rona Inc , a Canadian home-improvement retailer.

"The one thing that I take away from all of this is that as modern as Canada is and as westernized as it is, as democratic as it is, the political environment is very much the wild west in terms of what the rules are," said one trader, who owns shares of Nexen and Progress but who asked to not be named.

"It's in some ways equivalent to investing in China or investing in Africa or investing in South America, where governments can do whatever they want."

Canada's tar sands are the world's third-largest crude oil reserve, behind only Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, while the country's vast shale oil and gas deposits are still in the early stages of development.

The government has said the oil sands alone will require C$650 billion in investment over the next decade, much of which will have to come from foreign sources.

However, the government yet to make good on the pledge to clarify what constituted a net benefit under the Investment Canada Act made when it turned down BHP's Potash bid. Observers are saying that after the Petronas decision, the Conservatives must offer clear guidelines on the rules for overseas investors.

"The next message they have to send out is that 'We are still open for business, but here are the terms in which we are open for business. We'd love to work with you and take on foreign capital' and we haven't seen that yet," said Martin Pelletier, a portfolio manager with Trivest Wealth Counsel. "Hopefully we'll get some clarity on that in the next month or so with the Nexen-CNOOC deal."

($1 = $0.99 Canadian)

(Additional reporting by Jeffrey Jones in Calgary and David Ljunggren and Randall Palmer in Ottawa; Editing by Maureen Bavdek and Marguerita Choy)

Canada sounds like a great place to invest!

[Winnow]

Dow tumbles 240 points to seven-week low

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks sold off Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average sliding more than 240 points to a seven-week low following a slew of disappointing earnings.

All but two of the Dow's 30 components were in the red.

shocker!

dun dun duuuuu(kyou's an idiot)un!

[Avestan]

Well one day is not really a trend, it is a reaction. That said, in an effort to provide Kyoukan with more fodder (eventually I won't call it right), here is how I am thinking about the next six months (to be specific, let's say May 1).

10% chance of recession due to inability to compromise on fiscal cliff / taxes -> Dow 9000-10000
70% chance of increased taxes on dividends and cap gains -> Dow 12000-12750
20% chance none of this happens and stability leads to at least a return to recent highs -> Dow 14000-14500


Cap gains and devidend taxes will hit stocks by 5% to 10% simply because they are worth less money to non-tax sheltered investors. No big surprise there. I think some of today's 300+ point drop is pricing that into the market already.

I am betting on real estate for the next six months as I think that core equities are unlikely to do well. It is worth noting that even index funds have returned about 7% in the last year including today's decline.

[kyoukan]

my stock broker hung up on me after I told him to sell everything and invest in "the stock market" halp plz winnow wat am i doing wrong:(

[Winnow]

my stock broker hung up on me after I told him to sell everything and invest in "the stock market" halp plz winnow wat am i doing wrong:(

He hung up on you because you have no money. Have your sugar daddy call back.

[Aabidano]

10% chance of recession due to inability to compromise on fiscal cliff / taxes -> Dow 9000-10000

Listening to Boehner yesterday I expect this to happen.

[masteen]

Because the last bout of debt-ceiling cock-jousting went so well for them.

[Aabidano]

Because the last bout of debt-ceiling cock-jousting went so well for them.

It's those evil retirees, disabled and welfare slime that are the issue. Just ignore the areas that actually cost the most and prevent tax revenue.

He's got a maniacal focus on the smell of an imaginary dog turd in the yard while ignoring the house imploding behind him.

[Fairweather Pure]

Rove invested 400 million of super PAC money in the election and didn't get a single return!

[Avestan]

I guess that depends on how you think of return. What do you this the house and senate would look like today if he had spent none of it? I wager he got something for that spend - just not as much as he expected or wanted.

[Spang]

The Republican billionaire donors are pissed at Mr. Rove.

"The billionaire donors I hear are livid," one Republican operative told The Huffington Post. "There is some holy hell to pay. Karl Rove has a lot of explaining to do ... I don't know how you tell your donors that we spent $390 million and got nothing."....Rove was forced to defend his group's expenditures live on Fox News on Tuesday night, and will hold a briefing with top donors on Thursday, according to Politico.

[Winnow]

I blame the Latinos.

[Aabidano]

And of course 8 out of 10 boy genius MBA talking heads who trade, give advice and generally trash the market will be out the door and doing something else for a living within a couple years. Every one of them amazed when their theory on investing blows up in their faces, costs other people millions and forces them to look for a new profession.

B might come after A but that doesn't always mean there's any significance to it.

[Asheran Mojomaster]

I wonder how long until Karl Rove disappears, or has an "accident"?

[Winnow]

I wonder how long until Karl Rove disappears, or has an "accident"?

If Hillary has given Obama any tips on how to make people "disappear", it won't be long.

[Aabidano]

If Hillary has given Obama any tips on how to make people "disappear", it won't be long.

One of my first thoughts "Bet he's glad he didn't work for or with the Clintons."

[Asheran Mojomaster]

I wonder how long until Karl Rove disappears, or has an "accident"?

If Hillary has given Obama any tips on how to make people "disappear", it won't be long.

Lol, Obama and the democrats have absolutely no reason to want to harm Rove at this point. He poured hundreds of millions or billions of dollars into candidates that the democrats handily defeated.

His worries are in the Republican Party. He made a lot of promises and was not able to keep any of them. You cannot make that amount if money disappear and produce no results without having any consequences. He did not break the law, as far as anyone knows, and likely has not given any complete guarantees or put anything in writing (even if he had, would likely not be enforceable).

When the police and courts have no way to enforce this kind of thing, or provide recourse, then people will take it into their own hands, or, rather, pay someone else to.

There are likely hundreds of people who could be seen as having a motive at this point, as well as hundreds of thousands, or more, extemist, crazy Republcans who could potentially blame him, and even more people who hated him before this, for other reasons, who could use it as an opportunity to commit the perfect crime. If I were him, I would be taking every precaution in the world, and never be alone for the next few years at least.

[Jice Virago]

I guess that depends on how you think of return. What do you this the house and senate would look like today if he had spent none of it? I wager he got something for that spend - just not as much as he expected or wanted.

The House has more to do with the down ticket races they locked in a few years back letting them gerrymander the shit out of those districts than anything else. There were actually more votes cast for democratic canidates than GOP ones for the house elections.