Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

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Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Aslanna »

Is this going to be the scary pandemic that the bird flu was supposed to be? Whatever happened with that? The bad part is it's not on the other side of the world it's already here!

GENEVA – The World Health Organization warned countries around the world Saturday to be on alert for any unusual flu outbreaks after a unique new swine flu virus was implicated in possibly dozens of human deaths in North America.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said the outbreak in Mexico and the United States constituted a "public health emergency of international concern."

The decision means countries around the world will be asked to step up reporting and surveillance of the disease, which she said had "pandemic potential" because it is an animal virus strain infecting people. But the agency cannot at this stage say "whether or not it will indeed cause a pandemic," she added.

Chan made the decision to declare public health emergency of international concern after consulting with influenza experts from around the world. The emergency committee was called together Saturday for the first time since it was created in 2007.

In theory, WHO could now recommend travel advisories, trade restrictions or border closures, none of which would be binding. So far it has refrained from doing so.

The agency also held off raising its pandemic alert level, citing the need for more information.

Earlier, Chan told reporters that "it would be prudent for health officials within countries to be alert to outbreaks of influenza-like illness or pneumonia, especially if these occur in months outside the usual peak influenza season."

"Another important signal is excess cases of severe or fatal flu-like illness in groups other than young children and the elderly, who are usually at highest risk during normal seasonal flu," she said.

Several Latin American and Asian countries have already started surveillance or screening at airports and other points of entry.

At least 62 people have died from severe pneumonia caused by a flu-like illness in Mexico, WHO says. Some of those who died are confirmed to have a unique flu type that is a combination of bird, pig and human viruses. The virus is genetically identical to one found in California.

U.S. authorities said eight people were infected with swine flu in California and Texas, and all recovered.

So far, no other countries have reported suspicious cases, according to WHO.

But the French government said suspected cases are likely to occur in the coming days because of global air travel. A French government crisis group began operating Saturday. The government has already closed the French school in Mexico City and provided French citizens there with detailed instructions on precautions.

Chilean authorities ordered a sanitary alert that included airport screening of passengers arriving from Mexico. No cases of the disease have been reported so far in the country, Deputy Health Minister Jeanette Vega said, but those showing symptoms will be sent to a hospital for tests.

In Peru, authorities will monitor travelers arriving from Mexico and the U.S. and people with flu-like symptoms will be evaluated by health teams, Peru's Health Ministry said.

Brazil will "intensify its health surveillance in all points of entry into the country," the Health Ministry's National Health Surveillance Agency said in a statement. Measures will also be put in place to inspect cargo and luggage, and to clean and disinfect aircraft and ships at ports of entry.

Some Asian nations enforced checks Saturday on passengers from Mexico.

Japan's biggest international airport stepped up health surveillance, while the Philippines said it may quarantine passengers with fevers who have been to Mexico. Health authorities in Thailand and Hong Kong said they were closely monitoring the situation.

Asia has fresh memories of an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which hit countries across the region and severely crippled global air travel.

Indonesia, China, Thailand, Vietnam and other countries have also seen a number of human deaths from H5N1 bird flu, the virus that researchers have until now fingered as the most likely cause of a future pandemic.

The Dutch government's Institute for Public Health and Environment has advised any traveler who returned from Mexico since April 17 and develops a fever over 101.3 degrees Fahrenheit (38.5 Celsius) within four days of arriving in the Netherlands to stay at home.

The Polish Foreign Ministry has issued a statement that recommends that Poles postpone any travel plans to regions where the outbreak has occurred until it is totally contained.

The Stockholm-based European Center for Disease Prevention and Control said earlier Saturday it shared the concerns about the swine flu cases and stood ready to lend support in any way possible.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Winnow »

Wherever I read about this, it says it's hard to pass from human to human and you have to have contact with pigs...what's up with all of these people contacting pigs?

Phoenix is too close to Mexico. Damn illegals and green card Mexicans are going to bring it up here fast after visiting relatives. I need to get me a surgical mask.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Spang »

Wash your hands a lot.

Also,
Key Facts about Swine Influenza (Swine Flu)

Swine Flu

What is Swine Influenza?
Swine Influenza (swine flu) is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza virus that regularly causes outbreaks of influenza in pigs. Swine flu viruses cause high levels of illness and low death rates in pigs. Swine influenza viruses may circulate among swine throughout the year, but most outbreaks occur during the late fall and winter months similar to outbreaks in humans. The classical swine flu virus (an influenza type A H1N1 virus) was first isolated from a pig in 1930.

How many swine flu viruses are there?
Like all influenza viruses, swine flu viruses change constantly. Pigs can be infected by avian influenza and human influenza viruses as well as swine influenza viruses. When influenza viruses from different species infect pigs, the viruses can reassort (i.e. swap genes) and new viruses that are a mix of swine, human and/or avian influenza viruses can emerge. Over the years, different variations of swine flu viruses have emerged. At this time, there are four main influenza type A virus subtypes that have been isolated in pigs: H1N1, H1N2, H3N2, and H3N1. However, most of the recently isolated influenza viruses from pigs have been H1N1 viruses.
Swine Flu in Humans

Can humans catch swine flu?
Swine flu viruses do not normally infect humans. However, sporadic human infections with swine flu have occurred. Most commonly, these cases occur in persons with direct exposure to pigs (e.g. children near pigs at a fair or workers in the swine industry). In addition, there have been documented cases of one person spreading swine flu to others. For example, an outbreak of apparent swine flu infection in pigs in Wisconsin in 1988 resulted in multiple human infections, and, although no community outbreak resulted, there was antibody evidence of virus transmission from the patient to health care workers who had close contact with the patient.
How common is swine flu infection in humans?
In the past, CDC received reports of approximately one human swine influenza virus infection every one to two years in the U.S., but from December 2005 through February 2009, 12 cases of human infection with swine influenza have been reported.

What are the symptoms of swine flu in humans?
The symptoms of swine flu in people are expected to be similar to the symptoms of regular human seasonal influenza and include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing. Some people with swine flu also have reported runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

Can people catch swine flu from eating pork?
No. Swine influenza viruses are not transmitted by food. You can not get swine influenza from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork and pork products is safe. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160°F kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.

How does swine flu spread?
Influenza viruses can be directly transmitted from pigs to people and from people to pigs. Human infection with flu viruses from pigs are most likely to occur when people are in close proximity to infected pigs, such as in pig barns and livestock exhibits housing pigs at fairs. Human-to-human transmission of swine flu can also occur. This is thought to occur in the same way as seasonal flu occurs in people, which is mainly person-to-person transmission through coughing or sneezing of people infected with the influenza virus. People may become infected by touching something with flu viruses on it and then touching their mouth or nose.

What do we know about human-to-human spread of swine flu?
In September 1988, a previously healthy 32-year-old pregnant woman was hospitalized for pneumonia and died 8 days later. A swine H1N1 flu virus was detected. Four days before getting sick, the patient visited a county fair swine exhibition where there was widespread influenza-like illness among the swine.

In follow-up studies, 76% of swine exhibitors tested had antibody evidence of swine flu infection but no serious illnesses were detected among this group. Additional studies suggest that one to three health care personnel who had contact with the patient developed mild influenza-like illnesses with antibody evidence of swine flu infection.
How can human infections with swine influenza be diagnosed?
To diagnose swine influenza A infection, a respiratory specimen would generally need to be collected within the first 4 to 5 days of illness (when an infected person is most likely to be shedding virus). However, some persons, especially children, may shed virus for 10 days or longer. Identification as a swine flu influenza A virus requires sending the specimen to CDC for laboratory testing.

What medications are available to treat swine flu infections in humans?
There are four different antiviral drugs that are licensed for use in the US for the treatment of influenza: amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir. While most swine influenza viruses have been susceptible to all four drugs, the most recent swine influenza viruses isolated from humans are resistant to amantadine and rimantadine. At this time, CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with swine influenza viruses.

What other examples of swine flu outbreaks are there?
Probably the most well known is an outbreak of swine flu among soldiers in Fort Dix, New Jersey in 1976. The virus caused disease with x-ray evidence of pneumonia in at least 4 soldiers and 1 death; all of these patients had previously been healthy. The virus was transmitted to close contacts in a basic training environment, with limited transmission outside the basic training group. The virus is thought to have circulated for a month and disappeared. The source of the virus, the exact time of its introduction into Fort Dix, and factors limiting its spread and duration are unknown. The Fort Dix outbreak may have been caused by introduction of an animal virus into a stressed human population in close contact in crowded facilities during the winter. The swine influenza A virus collected from a Fort Dix soldier was named A/New Jersey/76 (Hsw1N1).
Is the H1N1 swine flu virus the same as human H1N1 viruses?
No. The H1N1 swine flu viruses are antigenically very different from human H1N1 viruses and, therefore, vaccines for human seasonal flu would not provide protection from H1N1 swine flu viruses.
Swine Flu in Pigs

How does swine flu spread among pigs?
Swine flu viruses are thought to be spread mostly through close contact among pigs and possibly from contaminated objects moving between infected and uninfected pigs. Herds with continuous swine flu infections and herds that are vaccinated against swine flu may have sporadic disease, or may show only mild or no symptoms of infection.

What are signs of swine flu in pigs?
Signs of swine flu in pigs can include sudden onset of fever, depression, coughing (barking), discharge from the nose or eyes, sneezing, breathing difficulties, eye redness or inflammation, and going off feed.

How common is swine flu among pigs?
H1N1 and H3N2 swine flu viruses are endemic among pig populations in the United States and something that the industry deals with routinely. Outbreaks among pigs normally occur in colder weather months (late fall and winter) and sometimes with the introduction of new pigs into susceptible herds. Studies have shown that the swine flu H1N1 is common throughout pig populations worldwide, with 25 percent of animals showing antibody evidence of infection. In the U.S. studies have shown that 30 percent of the pig population has antibody evidence of having had H1N1 infection. More specifically, 51 percent of pigs in the north-central U.S. have been shown to have antibody evidence of infection with swine H1N1. Human infections with swine flu H1N1 viruses are rare. There is currently no way to differentiate antibody produced in response to flu vaccination in pigs from antibody made in response to pig infections with swine H1N1 influenza.

While H1N1 swine viruses have been known to circulate among pig populations since at least 1930, H3N2 influenza viruses did not begin circulating among US pigs until 1998. The H3N2 viruses initially were introduced into the pig population from humans. The current swine flu H3N2 viruses are closely related to human H3N2 viruses.

Is there a vaccine for swine flu?
Vaccines are available to be given to pigs to prevent swine influenza. There is no vaccine to protect humans from swine flu. The seasonal influenza vaccine will likely help provide partial protection against swine H3N2, but not swine H1N1 viruses.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

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Squeal like a pig boy!
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pigs are actually a very common host for multi-strain flu recombination. (flu is able to trade its strands of rna (like our chromosomes) with other flu viruses allowing it to create new hybrid flu's .....
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Unclosed parentheses are the debil!
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"If you can't hear me, it's because I'm speaking in parentheses" - Steven Wright
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Post by Animalor »

We were due for another dose of public hysteria. The general public was starting to get unruly.
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Post by Fairweather Pure »

People die from the common flu in droves and it only gets any air time during a certian time of the year. Still, rumor is WHO is currently at phase 4, with phase 5 looming ever closer...

If this is how humanity dies, they better give Swine Flu a cooler fucking name.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Funkmasterr »

Girlfriend was reading me some info on this last night, the stuff Aslanna posted was part of it, but the other part was concerning the death rate so far. In Mexico, the death rate with this is around 7%. Now that could be a wildly high rate due to unreported cases (it likely is), but the comparison was made to the last pandemic that killed tens of millions world wide, and that had a death rate of around 2%.
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Post by laneela »

Fairweather Pure wrote:People die from the common flu in droves and it only gets any air time during a certian time of the year. Still, rumor is WHO is currently at phase 4, with phase 5 looming ever closer...

If this is how humanity dies, they better give Swine Flu a cooler fucking name.
Who is at phase 4?
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Who? WHO, thats who.
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I've switched to wearing colors that pop well to increase the likelihood of remaining a protagonist in the zombie apocalypse.
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Post by Fairweather Pure »

It really is interesting how the Swine Flu is spreading around the world in an almost perfect paralell to the zombie outbreak in Workd War Z. It's almost identical to that work of fiction.
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I'm betting WHO announces phase 5 either today or tomorrow.
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Who?
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What?
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Niffoni wrote:I've switched to wearing colors that pop well to increase the likelihood of remaining a protagonist in the zombie apocalypse.
Ok, that made me snort. Coffee in the nose isn't pleasant.
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Post by Winnow »

This is one of the rare times that Arizona doesn't seem like the best place to be living atm!
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Fairweather Pure wrote:I'm betting WHO announces phase 5 either today or tomorrow.
They just raised it to Phase 4 a couple of hours ago.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... gD97R1GDG0
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Follow Swine Flu Pandemic with google maps in real time!

http://gizmodo.com/5229314/follow-the-s ... oogle-maps

shoo! stay away from AZ!
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omg I live in Indiana. Dooooomed! :(
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See... I knew there was a reason why we preferred Cubans to Mexicans in Miami. We knew way before everyone else that Mexicans would one day try to kill us all with their swine germs. Enjoy your burritos, motherfuckers. Hope it was worth it!

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Aslanna wrote:omg I live in Indiana. Dooooomed! :(

There's two in Indiana so far! Zero in Arizona!

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8& ... urce=embed

Southern California looks pretty fucked.
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When it hits China, it will spread like wildfire.
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IT'S TOO LATE TO CONTAIN THE SWINE FLU
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Fairweather Pure wrote:If this is how humanity dies, they better give Swine Flu a cooler fucking name.
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This is being overblown by the media IMO. There are people dieing in Mexico but they are no where near as healthy as most Americans and are therefore much more susceptible. No one has come close to dieing in the US. Most cases are just minor flu like symptons. I don't think there has been any hospitalizations in the US. Personally, unless I am dieing I wouldn't go to a hospital anyway. If you didn't have it before then you would certainly have it afterwards.

That being said, the current Swine Flu going around HAS mutated to allow human-to-human transfer. This will allow it to spread more easily. I would only be worried if it mutated again into a more deadly form. Unlike SARS, tamiflu does work on swine flu.

No need to hide out in your basements yet all. Now if these victims all turn into zombies then we can start decrying teotwawki. ;)
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by miir »

This is being overblown by the media IMO. There are people dieing in Mexico but they are no where near as healthy as most Americans and are therefore much more susceptible. No one has come close to dieing in the US. Most cases are just minor flu like symptons. I don't think there has been any hospitalizations in the US. Personally, unless I am dieing I wouldn't go to a hospital anyway. If you didn't have it before then you would certainly have it afterwards.
So you're saying that people should just ignore it and it will go away?
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Funkmasterr »

miir wrote:
This is being overblown by the media IMO. There are people dieing in Mexico but they are no where near as healthy as most Americans and are therefore much more susceptible. No one has come close to dieing in the US. Most cases are just minor flu like symptons. I don't think there has been any hospitalizations in the US. Personally, unless I am dieing I wouldn't go to a hospital anyway. If you didn't have it before then you would certainly have it afterwards.
So you're saying that people should just ignore it and it will go away?

Yeah - Schools are being shut down, other countries are not allowing pork products from North America to be imported, they are detaining people that have recently been to Mexico.. The severity of the flu's effects on people might not be as severe in healthy people as is being implied, but the other effects it's having on the infrastructure are serious, too.

Also, no medicine is going to make swine flu go away. It is a virus, and cannot be "cured"; the medicine will just help mask the effects.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by miir »

other countries are not allowing pork products from North America to be imported
Haha, yea China... their government is fucking loony.
The virus can't even be spread by pork products.
The severity of the flu's effects on people might not be as severe in healthy people as is being implied
Well, the severity in the elderly and infants is definately something to be concerned about.

A few years back, there was a SARS outbreak that really wasn't taken all the seriously until there was over 100 deaths. It eventually claimed nearly 800 lives. If there had been more awareness early on, perhaps a lot of those deaths could have been avoided.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Funkmasterr »

miir wrote:
other countries are not allowing pork products from North America to be imported
Haha, yea China... their government is fucking loony.
The virus can't even be spread by pork products.
Yeah, I think it's hilarious. However, the point I was making is it's still a negative effect being caused by this flu.
miir wrote:
The severity of the flu's effects on people might not be as severe in healthy people as is being implied
Well, the severity in the elderly and infants is definately something to be concerned about.

A few years back, there was a SARS outbreak that really wasn't taken all the seriously until there was over 100 deaths. It eventually claimed nearly 800 lives. If there had been more awareness early on, perhaps a lot of those deaths could have been avoided.
Yeah that's kind of what I was implying. It could hit the elderly and young hard, and I have to wonder - if the virus is spreading fairly quick, killing unhealthy people, and has such a short incubation period - is it silly to think that there is at least a chance worth considering that things could get bad? I don't think so. I also don't think it's the end of the world, either :)
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Sylvus »

Why would anyone be concerned over 800 deaths? Has to be closer to 2819...
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by cadalano »

scientific name is Porcine Copulataris Virus.. is that cool enough?
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Xatrei »

Sylvus wrote:Why would anyone be concerned over 800 deaths? Has to be closer to 2819...
Only if they're (mostly) Americans and die in a spectacular fashion on US soil. Otherwise, it doesn't matter even if it's many times over 2819.
cadalano wrote:scientific name is Porcine Copulataris Virus.. is that cool enough?
It's a shame that thread got ganked by DB problems :(
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Canelek »

Sylvus wrote:
Fairweather Pure wrote:If this is how humanity dies, they better give Swine Flu a cooler fucking name.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Wulfran »

Its kinda scary when the Canadian gov't stands up and says "we expect deaths" with only 6 confirmed cases in the country. Wonder how long it will take to spread to Asia and Africa, since it was already confirmed in Spain? It could be nasty in some of the poorer countries...

So who lives in Colorado and is going to start setting up stuffs for the little old lady who sends out all the dream invites? (it was Colorado wasn't it? been forever since I read that book...)
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Fairweather Pure »

Part of me thinks this is all just hype. However, there is another part of me that is a little alarmed at how fast various health organizations are targetting around this flu. I don't like the fact tthat Mexico initially said they had 75 deaths, and a day later the number was 150. I don't like the way the public is walking on pins and needles right now. So, on the surface I am calm and cool, but underneath I am planning my escape route up north with a vehicle full of non parishable foods and survival gear :)

Also, the elderly and young are not the targets of this flu. It is the healthy middle ground of 25-45. That is actually one of the signs of an impending pandemic.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Drasta »

Edit: Fair basically posted what i said while i was typing mine up. pandemic flu's kill the young and health not old/infant people
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Fairweather Pure »

Drasta wrote:Edit: Fair basically posted what i said while i was typing mine up. pandemic flu's kill the young and health not old/infant people
I thought you were trying to say I was wrong. I had a post typed saying "you realize we're saying the same thing, right?". But, you beat me to it!
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Drasta »

yea i saw your post and was like damn it! beat me to it! since we've been talking about the flu in my epidemiology class and my virology class i thought I'd chime in with some info. but you beat me to it :-( and i don't think people here would enjoy a long drawn out explanation from me due to my fantastic grammar skillz =-P
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Fairweather Pure »

I would be interested in anything you could add from a classroom perspective. My knowledge is generally Internet findings and what I pick up around the hospital (which eventually leads me to look more up on the net).

I was talking with some of my coworkers about a "worst case scenerio", when I thought how crazy it would be if it started to get spread by birds. As we continued talking, I felt like I was writing a book about the end of the world.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Aabidano »

How does that number impact the regular death rate from flu & such during this same period?

Yes it's a concern but right now it's still more a news event than anything else. I wonder how much advertising rates have increased...
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Winnow »

I say we nuke Mexico City from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
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Re: Swine Flu - Pandemic of dooooom?

Post by Drasta »

Fairweather Pure wrote:I would be interested in anything you could add from a classroom perspective. My knowledge is generally Internet findings and what I pick up around the hospital (which eventually leads me to look more up on the net).

I was talking with some of my coworkers about a "worst case scenerio", when I thought how crazy it would be if it started to get spread by birds. As we continued talking, I felt like I was writing a book about the end of the world.

Well flu is actually an amazing virus in general, its a -ssRNA virus with a segmented genome. This basically means that the flu virus in very simplistic terms, 8 chromosomes of non-protein coding RNA. All flu viruses have these same 8 chromosomes. The thing that allows for the flu virus to evolve very rapidly is that if you are infected with say, Flu_virus_01 and also infected at the same time with Mega_flu_07, they will be able to trade their 8 different chromosomes with one another. So maybe they trade around their 8 chromosomes with one another and eventually come up with Kickyourass_flu_1000, from combining parts of the 2 different flu viruses inside of you. so since your infected with flu_01, Flu_07 and now a new flu virus Flu_1000. Flu_01 was only able to infect humans, while flu_07 was able to infect humans(wasn't a prefered host), dogs and cats altho was highly infectious was typically died within a week. well flu_1000 has now can still only infect humans, but now will cause you to die typically within one week from the chromosome that the virus picked up from flu_07.

This is basically what happened with the swine flu from what i've gathered/read online

it basically went under recombination/reassortment inside of a pig that was infected with the swine flu and also the flu from the spanish flu in ...1918? and boom, you got yourself a new virus


(pigs are typically hosts for recombination events to occur in so its not surprising)

sorry if its a bit confusing/complicated and hard to follow, heres a picture to help a lil bit.

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