valryte wrote:I have a feeling that Tyek failed miserably in math.
No, I didn't. There are 2200 REPORTED cases, but medical experts think the infected number of people in Mexico could be significantly larger.
In the US there was 109 cases I believe and 1 death. That is a death rate of .00971, hardly a deathbringer. I have seen several medical opinions that say this swine flu is no more or less deadly then the regular flu.
I never said ignore the problem, take precautions. I merely said it was overblown. Texas canceled all high school games, a high school not far from here canceled their prom. I just had lung tests because of the pneumonia I had all year. The death toll of Pneumonia is 40-70K people a year and the death rate is much higher then swine flu, but it is an old and boring problem.
I am not a medical expert, far from it, but I found this and it echoes my thoughts exactly.
All this affects the apparent significance of the numbers involved. Of the 110 million people in Mexico, 1,600 cases have been reported, with about 100 deaths—suggesting a mortality rate of 6 percent. This is almost certainly bad math, as the total case count almost certainly ignores thousands or tens of thousands of other cases that have taken milder courses like those in the United States. It's perfectly conceivable Mexico has actually had 10,000 or 100,000 cases—or even 1 million cases. If so, then the kill rate would be not 6 percent but 1 percent (given 10,000 cases) or 0.1 percent (given 100,000 cases).* If it's 1 million cases (quite possible if this thing really spreads easily) then the mortality rate is just 1 in 10,000. Meanwhile, because the United States is on high alert—and can take special note of people with recent travel to Mexico—it is probably picking up a fairly high percentage of its cases, including milder instances that would have gone unnoticed in Mexico a few weeks ago.
If it hasn't infected that many thousands of people in Mexico, on the other hand, that would suggest that, though it may be deadly, it doesn't spread as readily as we fear. To hear of multiple tourist groups coming down with the virus suggests it spreads like wildfire. But it also ignores the virtual certainty that many tourists and other travelers have been exposed without getting ill.
That's not to be too sanguine. For one thing, it's also possible that Mexico is missing, undercounting, or badly underreporting deaths. But if this virus really does spread rapidly, its kill rate is fairly low; and if its kill rate is anywhere near as high as the 100-out-of-1,600 suggests, then it doesn't spread very easily.
When I was younger, I used to think that the world was doing it to me and that the world owes me some thing…When you're a teeny bopper, that's what you think. I'm 40 now, I don't think that anymore, because I found out it doesn't f--king work. One has to go through that. For the people who even bother to go through that, most assholes just accept what it is anyway and get on with it." - John Lennon
