Investing on the election

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 7, 2012, 4:48 pm

I am curious of others' thoughts on this subject.

A few weeks ago, I moved most of my investments from muni bonds and commodities into a more standard (but still agressive) set of things more focused on domestic growth (real estate, retail, etc). My reasoning is that I believe the Obama administration will do everything possible to boost the short term health of the economy (real or spun). I believe that he is going to win the election and once that happens things will change.

My current plan is to sell in October or as soon as it becomes clear to the masses that he is going to win.

Is this driving anyone else's investment decisions right now?

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » February 7, 2012, 5:02 pm

Not mine. I'm more of a 'give them money and forget about it' investor but that's mainly because I only really do 401k and Roth. And trying to time the market usually doesn't pay off in the long run. Or so I have been told.

Leonaerd · Post by **Leonaerd** » February 7, 2012, 5:23 pm

I don't invest yet, but I would be all over stuff like this. Gambling is fun!

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » February 7, 2012, 8:09 pm

'give them money and forget about it' investor

Sums it up for me for the most part, I'm not an "active" investor and only own a few single company stocks. I try to choose products accordingly.

I've been putting cash into funds mainly driven by US small and medium public companies since ~6 months after the banking implosion. Other than a blip last July when the RNC was showing it's butt they've been rising nicely since the last bottom. Don't think I'll bail out after the election, they're all good long term. Suspect you're right and there will be a post election slump of sorts.

Jice Virago · Post by **Jice Virago** » February 7, 2012, 8:45 pm

I don't invest. My stuff is all in stable retirement funds with a Chinese bank that was smart enough to ignore the entire housing bubble (aka Union Bank of California's owner) and I am just sticking with the plan of stable low yield shit with zero risk. I do not want to get fucked out of my money right before I retire, like my parents did, assuming civilization is even still standing at that point.

Plus, really Avestan, I think you are choking on the Romney kool aid if you think the current economic mild upturn is Obama at the wheel trying to get re-elected. First off, wall Street are the only people who can make those kinds of dramatic short term shifts happen and they certainly prefer Romney over Obama (though the difference is admittedly minor). Second, the slow upturn has been happening for almost 16 months now and was started by policies enacted in the first year of Obama's term, not a rescent phenomena caused by one or two quick executive orders. This is especially true when you consider that the GOP has been digging in to block or otherwise fuck over anything happening that might look good for Obama, which would certainly include short term economic band aids. How exactly would he get anything short term done with the unending GOP congressional cock block that is in place right now?

If you want to invest in something sure fire, find a way to proffit off of the end of the estate tax that the uber rich are pressing for, because they are pulling out all the stops to get that through and are generally succeeding at phasing it out. Failing that, invest in pharma, because either fear of "obamacare" will drive people into a hysteria or the fear of the teabagger's 24/7 assault on it will do the same thing in reverse. Either way, there is money to be made investing in pharmacuticals.

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » February 7, 2012, 9:50 pm

Jice Virago wrote:I do not want to get fucked out of my money right before I retire, like my parents did, assuming civilization is even still standing at that point.

Those two cases dictate what my "non-play" money is in is in for the most part. Investments that won't fail in a serious & long term way unless our entire economy does, in which case any cash on hand will be equally worthless and none of it will matter at all.

One older relative got his senior exec parachute at about the right spot, others have been screwed (mostly legally) by their employers while the more senior execs walked off with bulging pockets. After of course they destroyed their corporation(s) via stupidity and short term game plans.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » February 7, 2012, 11:22 pm

As I have at least 20+ more years to go before retiring I'm still pretty much in aggressive funds. Obviously as one gets closer to retirement they should redistribute things and reduce their risk by getting into safer investments. I still don't think I'll really be able to retire comfortably but hopefully I'll at least have what I put in. I'm not counting on the '8% annual' growth that all the financial people use in their estimations though. The markets are pretty much a sham these days really. The only people getting rich are those with money. So in that regard it is a lot like gambling: The House (aka Wall Street) always wins in the end.

masteen · Post by **masteen** » February 8, 2012, 2:39 pm

I'm back at a state job, with less than three years until I vest in the pension. The only thing I'm dumping any serious cash into over the next couple years is a house. Not as an investment as much as a hedge against future rent spikes.

My area real estate market is still somewhat depressed, but the rentals I've looked at over the past couple years have not come down proportionally. So I want to get out of that game and get into a place that's actually mine. Plus I'm tired of sharing walls/floor/cieling with other people.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 8, 2012, 2:51 pm

Aslanna wrote:Not mine. I'm more of a 'give them money and forget about it' investor but that's mainly because I only really do 401k and Roth. And trying to time the market usually doesn't pay off in the long run. Or so I have been told.

Usually you have choices in how to invest your 401k and Roth. In fact I can guarentee you they are invested right now. You might only be making 0.5% on some kind of CD, but it is invested somewhere.

If you are under 45, you are shooting your retired self in the head by not having this stuff invested in higher risk / reward buckets. Get off the couch!

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » February 8, 2012, 3:41 pm

Avestan wrote: If you are under 45, you are shooting your retired self in the head by not having this stuff invested in higher risk / reward buckets. Get off the couch!

I've heard both the "target slow, steady growth as you have time" and the "you've got time and can be aggressive" trains of thought. The people I know who had aggressive portfolios really took it in the shorts in the last 3 slumps, and never fully recover before the next.. While it can work, the odds are seemingly against your average Joe over time.

I followed the "be more aggressive" advice from an advisor (in a limited fashion) out of curiosity, that stuff is still underwater. Coworker jumped in with both feet and he's not doing well at all.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 9, 2012, 5:55 am

With no risk, there is no reward. When you are 50+, you should buy bonds with lower risk profiles. Hell buy bonds now - better than a freaking CD.

The entire reason that Roths are attractive is that you do not have to pay taxes on their appreciation. If you are parking that cash in 0.5% return investment vehicles, you might as well keep it liquid and stuff it in a shoe box.

I hope you have a big shoe box and plan to work well into your 70s (or 80s). This is basic stuff guys. When young, take risks. Sometimes risks don't pan out - that is life. If you bought stock at the bottom of the crash in '08, you have, on the average, doubled that investment in less than 4 years.

For what it is worth, I have always had an agressive portfolio and have not taken it in the shorts over the last four years. The money I invested four years ago is a bit down (10-15%), but the money I invested 3 years ago has doubled. The last 2 have not been bad either.

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » February 9, 2012, 2:44 pm

Avestan wrote:I hope you have a big shoe box and plan to work well into your 70s (or 80s). This is basic stuff guys. When young, take risks. Sometimes risks don't pan out - that is life. If you bought stock at the bottom of the crash in '08, you have, on the average, doubled that investment in less than 4 years.

This almost matches word-for-word with what our exec's would preach while I worked in mortgage loan servicing. They were gobbling up shitty loans from other companies. Wonder how their businesses are doing now.

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » February 9, 2012, 3:54 pm

If you bought stock at the bottom of the crash in '08, you have, on the average, doubled that investment in less than 4 years.

I did and was nearly double on it overall until last July and have almost recovered from that. The rest dropped less and bounced back sooner. Very little is in bonds & such at present, I don't go quite that "slow and steady".

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 9, 2012, 7:52 pm

Boogahz wrote:
Avestan wrote:I hope you have a big shoe box and plan to work well into your 70s (or 80s). This is basic stuff guys. When young, take risks. Sometimes risks don't pan out - that is life. If you bought stock at the bottom of the crash in '08, you have, on the average, doubled that investment in less than 4 years.
This almost matches word-for-word with what our exec's would preach while I worked in mortgage loan servicing. They were gobbling up shitty loans from other companies. Wonder how their businesses are doing now.

Do whatever you want

Just because execs say it, does not mean it is wrong.

kyoukan · Post by **kyoukan** » February 10, 2012, 2:03 am

except that it was wrong. and americans lost trillons of dollars in wealth overnight.

your advice is basically the exact opposite of what any sane and wealthy investor would offer. it makes me question if you have even the faintest idea what you are talking about, or are just full of shit.

masteen · Post by **masteen** » February 10, 2012, 12:02 pm

Here's the rub with investing: most really wealthy people got that way not with a balanced portfolio, but with massive holdings in one good company. IMO, the only purpose of a diverse portfolio was to help you find a company with the right risk/reward profile, but with the casinofication of the market and disappearance of long-term planning from American corporate culture, it's increasingly unlikely to find such companies.

So all you do is mitigate individual stock risk down to market risk, which is still unacceptably risky unless you're one of G-S preferred investors (AKA you'll get bailed out when their short-sighted greed implodes the world economy again).

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 10, 2012, 4:36 pm

kyoukan wrote:except that it was wrong. and americans lost trillons of dollars in wealth overnight.

your advice is basically the exact opposite of what any sane and wealthy investor would offer. it makes me question if you have even the faintest idea what you are talking about, or are just full of shit.

Srsly? Wealth management professionals tell you to park your cash in low yield vehicles when you are young and can take risks? I think not. Do yours tell you that you should not be investing at regular intervals as opposed to trying to time the market? I would fire yours quickly.

Pud, I thought we were friends. When did I land on your "flame no matter what he/she says" list? I know you are smarter than your above comment or didn't take the time to actually read anything.

What is your investment strategy? Piggy banks?

Leonaerd · Post by **Leonaerd** » February 10, 2012, 5:10 pm

Are there aggressive investment options out there that work well for the super short-term? I want to make money in spurts, avoiding a bubble burst whenever possible. Is day-trading really that tough?

Jice Virago · Post by **Jice Virago** » February 10, 2012, 5:20 pm

Any time a bank or investment manager is trying to get you to take additional risk it is so they can get another casino chip on the table to play with. After what happened with the housing crisis, why the fuck should anyone trust these assholes Avestan? Especially in an environment where they can make more money by causing businesses to fail, rather than succeed, what would lead you to believe that they have your best interests in mind?

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » February 10, 2012, 6:16 pm

Avestan wrote:
Aslanna wrote:Not mine. I'm more of a 'give them money and forget about it' investor but that's mainly because I only really do 401k and Roth. And trying to time the market usually doesn't pay off in the long run. Or so I have been told.
Usually you have choices in how to invest your 401k and Roth. In fact I can guarentee you they are invested right now. You might only be making 0.5% on some kind of CD, but it is invested somewhere.

If you are under 45, you are shooting your retired self in the head by not having this stuff invested in higher risk / reward buckets. Get off the couch!

I never said I wasn't invested! I realize that my money is allocated in certain funds and such. My point was that I just make my initial contribution selections and then kinda forget about it after that. I know you're supposed to rebalance and all that but it ends up confusing me.

And, as indicated in a later post, I am mostly in aggressive funds at the moment. Plus I upped my contributions from 15% to 20% today so will see how that goes. I'm still not at the yearly max but a little more can't hurt.

Having said that, I don't really 'believe' in the market these days based on what I've seen the past 12 or so years. Things are going along great then the market tanks.. Eventually it starts to recover and I even start making some money but then shit hits the fan and down everything goes once again. Then repeat the cycle over and over. So while over the long run I don't think I'll really lose per se as I will probably get back to what I put in, but I don't foresee a lot of growth beyond that. Especially now that Wall Street overreacts over the slightest things these days.

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » February 10, 2012, 8:03 pm

And the house profits at every single step.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » February 10, 2012, 8:43 pm

That can't be helped. And especially as I get matching contributions from my employer (to a point) it would be like turning down free money by not having a 401k. As I say I don't expect to get rich on it or anything but I think it's a viable retirement option at this point. Sure aren't going to make any money on stuff like CDs and their .75% rate. Which is going to be around for at least two more years thanks to the Fed.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 10, 2012, 10:24 pm

Jice Virago wrote:Any time a bank or investment manager is trying to get you to take additional risk it is so they can get another casino chip on the table to play with. After what happened with the housing crisis, why the fuck should anyone trust these assholes Avestan? Especially in an environment where they can make more money by causing businesses to fail, rather than succeed, what would lead you to believe that they have your best interests in mind?

Who are you going to trust - you gotta trust someone or do it yourself - or shove your money in a shoebox. I do not work with anyone who earns commission - all flat fee. They have no incentive to get me to invest in anything.

Wulfran · Post by **Wulfran** » February 11, 2012, 7:42 am

masteen wrote:Here's the rub with investing: most really wealthy people got that way not with a balanced portfolio, but with massive holdings in one good company.

Thats not true. Many wealthy people were able to get where they wanted to go with balanced portfolios and some hard work up until about a decade or so ago, my parents being a case in point. It took time and they aren't uber-rich, but they haven't had to work (except for the fact that Dad like to) since they were in their early 50s. In my parent's case, some of the high risks they took earlier are what set them back.

Now I realize (from personal experience) it is a lot harder to do that at this time, but if you have a decent income, don't spend like a drunken sailor (i.e. buy a home that isn't at the outer end of what you can afford, keep debt under control and save 10-15% of your earnings) and can aim for a 10% return over time, wealth will still accumulate for you. The rub is it takes time.

Jice Virago · Post by **Jice Virago** » February 11, 2012, 1:25 pm

Avestan wrote:
Jice Virago wrote:Any time a bank or investment manager is trying to get you to take additional risk it is so they can get another casino chip on the table to play with. After what happened with the housing crisis, why the fuck should anyone trust these assholes Avestan? Especially in an environment where they can make more money by causing businesses to fail, rather than succeed, what would lead you to believe that they have your best interests in mind?
Who are you going to trust - you gotta trust someone or do it yourself - or shove your money in a shoebox. I do not work with anyone who earns commission - all flat fee. They have no incentive to get me to invest in anything.

They always have incentive. If they are not getting a commision, then they are getting bonuses from their investment groups for getting more money into the system. You would be very naive to think otherwise. At this point, given the complete tone deaf nature of this class of people (eg, lets pay ourselves the biggest bonuses in recoreded human history right after getting bailed out for our hubris in almost crashing the entire world economy for good) the shoe box is looking a lot better every day. Go ahead and put your casino chips into play if you want, thats your business, but no one has been able to make money off the system except the people at the top (aka the casino owners) since they deregulated the shit out of everything.

Zaelath · Post by **Zaelath** » February 11, 2012, 9:46 pm

As long as that shoebox is full of gold and guns. If it's full of USD you could be in trouble.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 12, 2012, 8:47 pm

Jice Virago wrote:
Avestan wrote:
Jice Virago wrote:Any time a bank or investment manager is trying to get you to take additional risk it is so they can get another casino chip on the table to play with. After what happened with the housing crisis, why the fuck should anyone trust these assholes Avestan? Especially in an environment where they can make more money by causing businesses to fail, rather than succeed, what would lead you to believe that they have your best interests in mind?
Who are you going to trust - you gotta trust someone or do it yourself - or shove your money in a shoebox. I do not work with anyone who earns commission - all flat fee. They have no incentive to get me to invest in anything.
They always have incentive. If they are not getting a commision, then they are getting bonuses from their investment groups for getting more money into the system. You would be very naive to think otherwise. At this point, given the complete tone deaf nature of this class of people (eg, lets pay ourselves the biggest bonuses in recoreded human history right after getting bailed out for our hubris in almost crashing the entire world economy for good) the shoe box is looking a lot better every day. Go ahead and put your casino chips into play if you want, thats your business, but no one has been able to make money off the system except the people at the top (aka the casino owners) since they deregulated the shit out of everything.

My financial advisor is paid a flat fee for managing my portfolio. It does not matter if it is invested or not. They get a kicker if they earn me more than a certain percentage per annum.

Zaelath · Post by **Zaelath** » February 13, 2012, 6:32 am

Avestan wrote:
My financial advisor is paid a flat fee for managing my portfolio. It does not matter if it is invested or not. They get a kicker if they earn me more than a certain percentage per annum.

What's the penalty if they lose?

That's exactly what people are trying to say is the problem; there is an incentive to take risk with (at least some) investor's money because they can't lose but they might win a bonus.

There is no incentive system in the world that parallels the idiocy of the capital gains bonus system.

miir · Post by **miir** » February 13, 2012, 10:38 am

There are no qualifications to be a 'financial advisor'. you literally have to take one online course.
It can be passed easily by a high-school dropout.

A financial advisor is not a fiduciary... they are rarely more than just a salesperson.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » February 13, 2012, 11:17 am

Most reputable financial institutions probably would not hire an uneducated dropout. At least I would hope not. Regardless, you can always ask for their qualifications and if you're not happy I'm sure you could ask for someone else.

Besides most people wont even have one if we're just talking 401k which are left to the individual to manage.

miir · Post by **miir** » February 13, 2012, 11:37 am

Aslanna wrote:reputable financial institutions

Jice Virago · Post by **Jice Virago** » February 13, 2012, 2:24 pm

Aslanna-
Considering most of these same financial institutions hired a bunch of patsies for the robo signing bullshit, you may want to revisit that statement a little.

Avestan-
Just because you are not paying your guy a bonus does not mean the investment funds are not paying him to get your money into play.

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » February 13, 2012, 2:36 pm

miir wrote:A financial advisor is not a fiduciary... they are rarely more than just a salesperson.

If FL anyway they've got to be licensed to sell insurance products

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » February 13, 2012, 2:47 pm

I'm not revisiting it at all! Point is I'm sure you can ask for the qualifications of your advisor and if you're not satisified you can request someone else or move elsewhere. And as stated in regards to 401k's this is really a moot point for most people since they wont have a FA.

Go ahead and put your casino chips into play if you want, thats your business, but no one has been able to make money off the system except the people at the top (aka the casino owners) since they deregulated the shit out of everything.

I'm not sure I really agree with that either. Obviously those at the top most the most money and make it consistently but I think the average investor if they are in it for the long haul (20+ years) will make at least some return off their investments assuming they make periodic adjustments as they get closer to retirement. I'm not saying it will be anything spectacular but it has to be better than a shoebox. But maybe I've just been drinking the Kool-Aid here.

It's worth mentioning that over 20-year periods, unlike for 10-year periods, there have been no cases where the ending portfolio was less than the original investment. The worst performance was again turned in by 1928 -- i.e., the last year before the 1929 crash. Investors putting $100,000 into the market at that point would have had about $160,000 20 years later. While $160,000 is greater than the initial investment, performance like this would wreak havoc on most retirement plans.

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » February 13, 2012, 2:55 pm

Aabidano wrote:
miir wrote:A financial advisor is not a fiduciary... they are rarely more than just a salesperson.
If FL anyway they've got to be licensed to sell insurance products

Life & Health yeah.

Far from just an online form.

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » February 13, 2012, 3:39 pm

Part of the issue is there are people who still believes the system works as advertised, the last 14 years have shown clear evidence to the contrary. If you go back and look at history we've been on this roller coaster since the 1850s with the same groups profiting from the same shenanigans over and over.

So-called "conservative" deregulation during the Regan-Bush-Clinton period only accelerated things.

Makes me think of the short lived, immediate pre-banking implosion pitch to privatize SS from the Bush admin. Was it a last ditch attempt to prop up the system or to get a few more $$ into his supporters pockets before the bottom fell out? They absolutely knew it was coming.

kyoukan · Post by **kyoukan** » February 14, 2012, 6:15 am

Avestan wrote:
kyoukan wrote:except that it was wrong. and americans lost trillons of dollars in wealth overnight.

your advice is basically the exact opposite of what any sane and wealthy investor would offer. it makes me question if you have even the faintest idea what you are talking about, or are just full of shit.
Srsly? Wealth management professionals tell you to park your cash in low yield vehicles when you are young and can take risks? I think not. Do yours tell you that you should not be investing at regular intervals as opposed to trying to time the market? I would fire yours quickly.

Pud, I thought we were friends. When did I land on your "flame no matter what he/she says" list? I know you are smarter than your above comment or didn't take the time to actually read anything.

What is your investment strategy? Piggy banks?

If you can show me even a single credible financial adviser who's serious financial advice is to toss everything you own into high risk investments and pray it doesn't fail, and then to start all over again from scratch when it does, I will fucking shoot myself. But really, keep telling people to toss their life savings into Segway and Myspace.com. No one here is going to listen to you anyway.

The reason I flame you is because I think you are full of shit. Nobody with two nickles to rub together is going to say the crappy things you say about money. You sound like some trust fundy trying to make himself out like he's Warren Buffet. This isn't to mention the intention of this entire entire thread is just a thinly veiled Obama troll. I don't dislike you at all.

Aabidano · Post by **Aabidano** » February 14, 2012, 8:51 am

kyoukan wrote:If you can show me even a single credible financial adviser who's serious financial advice is to toss everything you own into high risk investments and pray it doesn't fail

In many cases "they" still say the same things, without a note as to which part of the roller coaster it's best to jump off at.

Kind of like smoking cigarettes to stave off Alzheimer's, the trick is knowing when enough is enough.

Boogahz · Post by **Boogahz** » February 14, 2012, 4:47 pm

It's kind of like a failed penny-stock scam. You're not supposed to give away the timing when you're going to jump ship.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 16, 2012, 12:00 am

Jice Virago wrote:Aslanna-
Considering most of these same financial institutions hired a bunch of patsies for the robo signing bullshit, you may want to revisit that statement a little.

Avestan-
Just because you are not paying your guy a bonus does not mean the investment funds are not paying him to get your money into play.

I rarely invest in funds outside of my 401k which is managed separately. We make portfolios out of groups of stocks. It is more volatile, but I am young.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » February 16, 2012, 12:06 am

kyoukan wrote: If you can show me even a single credible financial adviser who's serious financial advice is to toss everything you own into high risk investments and pray it doesn't fail, and then to start all over again from scratch when it does, I will fucking shoot myself. But really, keep telling people to toss their life savings into Segway and Myspace.com. No one here is going to listen to you anyway.

The reason I flame you is because I think you are full of shit. Nobody with two nickles to rub together is going to say the crappy things you say about money. You sound like some trust fundy trying to make himself out like he's Warren Buffet. This isn't to mention the intention of this entire entire thread is just a thinly veiled Obama troll. I don't dislike you at all.

I get what you are against and I agree with your point stated above, but it is hardly what I am suggesting.

What I am trying to understand is what advice you would give to a 30 year old trying to save right now.

Apparently, funds cannot be trusted and all financial advisors who try to do anything fancier than packaged funds cannot be trusted. The alternative is stock picking which is pretty much, by far, the highest risk strategy anyone has mentioned here.

Let's say you are 30 years old and have worked hard to save $50,000 in post tax, liquid, cash. What do you do with it? As far as the trust fund is concerned - my parents covered college for me and I know that most people don't get that - but I don't expect to get anything else until they die - which I hope is a long way off. I am just trying to provide the same for my kids.

And to be clear - I would follow this strategy with any administration trying to tell a story about recovery. It was not a veiled jab at Obama - if anything, it was a jab at our political system.

masteen · Post by **masteen** » February 17, 2012, 12:28 am

Large cap index funds from one of the investment house that wasn't balls deep in the toxic credit markets. Large cap because those companies are most likely to get a bailout when the economy asplode again.

Avestan · Post by **Avestan** » September 26, 2012, 1:22 pm

Sold all my stocks today (~10% return since Feb.) and put money into a couple of domestic real estate ETF's. (REZ is an example). I think we are headed into a rough stretch for stocks in the next 6-9 months.

kyoukan · Post by **kyoukan** » September 26, 2012, 1:57 pm

that's interesting. weve been making money like crazy on the stock market.

maybe you should buy gold coins from goldline and bury them in your yard. it's what glenn beck would want.

Jice Virago · Post by **Jice Virago** » September 26, 2012, 8:47 pm

Yeah Avestan, people like you are a large reason why the stock market needs tighter regulation. Investing on emotion instead of sound empirical data is a bad way to construct a stable market system, regardless of your political leanings. Your the rich version of the hillbilly who believes it when Fox calls Obama a Kenyan Muslim Socialist, except you are drinking the Obama is killing the economy kool aid, instead. The current president has been one of the most Wall Street friendly presidents in all of history, unless you want to count Bill Clinton for starting the deregulation ball rolling. The fact that you think otherwise, DESPITE making more money on your investments just shows how far you have swallowed the hook from the right.

Fairweather Pure · Post by **Fairweather Pure** » September 26, 2012, 9:05 pm

All I can add is the fact that both my retirement and the wife's has made a strong bounce back in the past 1.5 years. It's not making up for what we lost 4 years ago, but it is off to a good start so far.

Also, the housing market is beginning to move in my area. Banks are lending again and there are lots of options out there for people that are upside down on their mortgages. Hell, my parents filed bankruptcy 2 years ago and they are downsizing and getting great financing from special programs. Meanwhile, I'm looking at a 3% mortgage loan right now. We have a short list of 6 houses we're interested in and 2 of them have sold in the past 2 weeks. Crazy! We'll likely be making an offer in the next two weeks.

Aslanna · Post by **Aslanna** » September 26, 2012, 10:23 pm

Avestan wrote:Sold all my stocks today (~10% return since Feb.) and put money into a couple of domestic real estate ETF's. (REZ is an example). I think we are headed into a rough stretch for stocks in the next 6-9 months.

Seriously.. Who manages your finances... The Cookie Monster?

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2012 to 09/25/2012 is 14.2%

Not gangbusters.. But surely better than -10%. I'd be happy to maintain 8% that all the financial advisers use as the 'average'. We'll see!

But yeah I agree somewhat. Just as I start to get back what I lost I'm sure something shitty will happen to wipe that out again.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » September 27, 2012, 2:23 am

Stock market goes up and down. (that was for the idiots in the group) So far, it keeps heading up eventually but I wouldn't blame anyone for selling when they felt like it due to market trends. You people have been around long enough to have seen people lose half of their 401Ks practically overnight. That's no biggie if you are young and can wait for the eventual recovery, but as you get older, you won't feel so confident about losing big chunks of investment value. Avestan has every right to place investments where he wants.

Only dumb-asses keep their money in the stock market without making adjustments. I'm sure the dot.com bubble people thought they would just keep on doubling their money every few weeks. Same with the insane valuation increases in the housing market that crashed.

I hate people that short stocks, but you can make a ton of money shorting stocks. Are you people going to tell me you have morals when it comes to your money? ...because you're putting your money up against a ton of people who don't. Until the naked shorting scam is under control, you're fucking nuts to "trust" the market.

The Market is due for a downward trend. ~ -30% of recent gains from the past few months. Same pattern from 1900 through 2008 during election years. Either this is the first year ever it's going to buck the trend or it's going down. Back up in November, followed by a correction again in December. Why not play the market? Plenty of people will let their money sit there but there's nothing wrong with playing the market. You're constantly being fucked by hedge funds that do. There's zero honor left in the markets.

Of course, October is also the month for three biggest market meltdowns in history:

1929
1987
2008

Obama looks like a shoe-in for reelection. An incumbent win = 10% gain following the election over the past 12 elections.

Soooo, if you felt like playing the market:

Lighten up now, buy mid October, sell end of November, buy and hold end of December for +10% on top of whatever you made previously heading into the new year.

Couple of other small things that point to not expecting too much over the next few years...doesn't matter if democrat or republican is in office:

The stock market tends to decline in the first and second years of any presidency, regardless of the party.

Stocks do better over a full four-year presidential term when the challengers rather than the incumbents win.

kyoukan · Post by **kyoukan** » September 27, 2012, 2:46 am

spoken like someone with a child-like grasp on how the stock market works.

not my child though. he would probably make more money than you.

Winnow · Post by **Winnow** » September 27, 2012, 2:50 am

Hey there leech. Get back to me when you make your own money. I doubt you can even afford a video game without giving out party favor.